[Lippsman]

I have a local that said he would take these and he said I would lose my ass by playing these. I just chuckled under my breath and was thinking, "Just wait till Monday sucker"

Wow !!!!

Was I wrong, I dropped 5 of these 7 games. Although to be fair I would of won the Florida game if I didn't make the play so early in the week. But on the other hand it could go the other way also. Here are the plays I made.

Of course I played the fave/over and dog/under

Florida -34.5, OU 67.5
Wisc -26.5 OU 51
Arizona U -27 OU 63
Auburn -26 OU 49
Kansas -36 OU 57.5
Kansas St. -26.5 OU 67.5
USC -18.5 OU 42.5

I know that you can't put a great deal into 7 games as a sample this year, but man. It really made me think.

I do pretty well correlating under 5.5 and dogs in pucks but maybe this is a completely a different animal.

All opinions welcomed. Should I hit these again this week or just hold off. I am using a correrlated percentage of 39% or more.

Thanks

[durito]

You won 3 of 7.

There's a reason no books take these. Bet them while you can.

[HedgeHog]

I think he had 2 of 14 (bet -/Ov and +/Un in each game) and should've had 3 of 14. While a loser last week, this will win in the long run. This is the reason SB.com started stealing money from correlated par players.

[Lippsman]

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

I think he had 2 of 14 (bet -/Ov and +/Un in each game) and should've had 3 of 14. While a loser last week, this will win in the long run. This is the reason SB.com started stealing money from correlated par players.

You are correct I was 2 out of 14. Considering even when you when a side you will lose the other.

I will give it a go again this week, but sure won't be as cocky about them. Maybe a blessing that I did lose them last week. It will throw the "guy" off of them a bit.

[HedgeHog]

Best bets this week are the Ohio St -34/ Over 45.5 and Ohio U +34/Under 45.5 parlays. You have about 70% chance of hitting one of them.

[HedgeHog]

Alabama/Tulane situation looks sweet, too.

[Lippsman]

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

Best bets this week are the Ohio St -34/ Over 45.5 and Ohio U +34/Under 45.5 parlays. You have about 70% chance of hitting one of them.

I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?

Thanks

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by Lippsman

I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?

Thanks

Educated estimate. Non-correlated pars can expect roughly 25% ATS for each possible result (+/O,-O,+U,-U). However, heavily correlated pars significantly reduce the -U par %. For example, if Ohio St covers 34 points, it would be very difficult for the game to go under 45.5 (in fact impossible if the opponent scores 6 or more points).

So a game this heavily correlated would expect to see parlay win percentages as follows (again educated estimates):

-/O 35%
+/U 35%
+/O 25%
-/U 5%

[smitch124]

Originally Posted by Lippsman

I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?

Thanks

I also think there is data for the expected edge or win rate depending on the ratio of the Total to the Spread.

I think anything under 2.3 is especially profitable, unfortunately I don't have #'s. Maybe someone else can elaborate, but from what little I know the example given in this thread (Ohio/Ohio St.) has a pretty healthy edge...

[Lippsman]

Here are the ones I am looking at for Saturday. Spread, OU and correlation percentage

Alabama -30.5, 45.........67.77 %
Nebraska -27, 57.5........46.95 %
Oaklaoma -22, 52.5.......41.90 %
Wisconsin -20.5, 51.5....38.83 %
Georgia -24, 56............42.85 %
Notre Dame -22, 43.......51.16%
Utah -21.5, 42.5...........50.58 %
Arizona U -23, 60..........38.33 %
Iowa -26.5, 41.5...........63.85 %

I was thinking about killing the two 38's, but that is still pretty high.

Thanks for the input

[RickySteve]

"correlation percentage"

[Lippsman]

Originally Posted by RickySteve

"correlation percentage"

What about the percentage? Did you see something I missed?

Thanks

[Doug]

I'd have no problem betting 2-3% of BR on each one, maybe more, if you want to aggressive. I might tend to bet the under ones a bit stronger than the over ones, maybe 3 units under, 2 over.

They will win over a bigger sample.

[Lippsman]

Originally Posted by Doug

I'd have no problem betting 2-3% of BR on each one, maybe more, if you want to aggressive. I might tend to bet the under ones a bit stronger than the over ones, maybe 3 units under, 2 over.

They will win over a bigger sample.

Thanks for the input Doug, things have started out better this week than last. I did play two units on each side. Interesting that I have seen posters advise on a few sites to shade the fave and over instead of the dog and under.

Thanks again

[Doug]

better would be to form an opinion on the game, put 4 units the way you cap it, 1 unit the other way Or 3.5/1.5units), but I think going blindly... the under is the better correlation, I'm not 100% sure the under is better, but I think so. I don't bet these anymore.... not because they aren't good, just a lack of outs, and ways to move monies.

[smitch124]

Intuitively the under definitely looks like a better coorelation. I wonder if its better to just bet that side and take less wins with a higher ROI...

[Lippsman]

These have been hitting much better this week. Also I have been hedging with 2nd half wagers on the ones that made sense, to protect from both sides losing and I have hit both of them. A very nice day indeed.

After going 2-5 last week I don't think the guy will pull the plug on this good week. But another few like this one and things may change. But I will enjoy it as long as I can.

I will post the outcome of each game, noting which side hit.

Thanks to everyone here.