just a thought

Data · 05-06-2008, 09:44 AM

I have been thinking along the lines of utility functions, Kelly, bankroll and such and I found myself thinking that on some level Kelly is just like the Law of Large numbers, it can only be applied if you are going to live forever (that aside from other conditions) and if you are not then it becomes pretty much like the Gambler's Fallacy. I found this thought controversial yet amusing and decided to share it with you guys.

RickySteve · 05-06-2008, 02:50 PM

Less vodka for you, comrade.

Dark Horse · 05-06-2008, 03:11 PM

Agreed. A problem with a lot of mathematical solutions is that they work perfect in isolation. Add the fluctuations of real life and math often falls short. Nature can't be confined to such sterility. Chaos theory explores hidden patterns. (don't tell this to mathematicians, because they consider it heresy; having convinced themselves that their discipline is perfect).

picoman · 05-06-2008, 03:27 PM

"in the long run, we're all dead" --Keynes

durito · 05-06-2008, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Agreed. A problem with a lot of mathematical solutions is that they work perfect in isolation. Add the fluctuations of real life and math often falls short. Nature can't be confined to such sterility. Chaos theory explores hidden patterns. (don't tell this to mathematicians, because they consider it heresy; having convinced themselves that their discipline is perfect).

.

Quote:

Less vodka for you, comrade.

tomcowley · 05-06-2008, 05:36 PM

Sometimes utility isn't logarithmic, especially in the very short term. If you have exactly $1000 to buy in to a very profitable tournament, you arne't taking a coinflip for $10 to win $50. OTOH, the time I left my wad in the hotel (30 minutes away), and had about half a buyin in my wallet, taking one shot at a doubleup on the craps table (yay 7 out of the chute) to be able to get a seat in a good game was clearly immediately -EV, but overall +EG.

Ganchrow · 05-06-2008, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Agreed. A problem with a lot of mathematical solutions is that they work perfect in isolation. Add the fluctuations of real life and math often falls short. Nature can't be confined to such sterility. Chaos theory explores hidden patterns. (don't tell this to mathematicians, because they consider it heresy; having convinced themselves that their discipline is perfect).

I'll just point out that Chaos Theory is itself a branch of mathematics, and its existence is no more heretical to modern mathematical theory than fuzzy logic is to computer science. (More fitting analogies enthusiastically encouraged.)