[rake922]

Do you wait as long as possible when picking a dog?


Do you rush to bet the favs early?

[donjuan]

If you are handicapping you want to bet as early as possible, generally, because that is when lines are most inefficient.

[Arnold]

Originally Posted by rake922

Do you wait as long as possible when picking a dog?
Do you rush to bet the favs early?

I usually don't wait to get a better line, because often it is not worth the risk/sweat. I bet them the night before the game, while lines are still fresh.

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by rake922

Do you wait as long as possible when picking a dog?


Do you rush to bet the favs early?

It's a misconception that Favs always rise early and Dog action comes in later. If you're confident about your pick, regardless of the time of day, line shop and lock in.

[LT Profits]

donjuan,

But sometimes you like the other side of where the money is going, in which case the later the better. Perfect example is Seattle/Houston Over in NBA tonight. I liked the Over even at 196, but I saw the line dropping, so I waited. Then when I saw some books rise to 193.5, I bet it at 193.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by Arnold

I usually don't wait to get a better line, because often it is not worth the risk/sweat.

Ah, but it is!

I have been saved by many a half-point in my day.

[diogee]

I hold off on bets that I think I will get a more favorable line later in the day and it usually pays off but place the rest of my bets right away.

[Arnold]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Ah, but it is!

I have been saved by many a half-point in my day.

That's if the line moves in your favor. There is a good chance it won't, that's why I don't like sweating over it. I like worry-free betting

[LT Profits]

Well I'd only wait if I thought there was a very good chance I'd get a better line later. Again, see my point regarding Rockets Over tonight.

[donjuan]

LT,

If you are consistently making bets that have +EV, you shouldn't wait unless

a) you are waiting for limits to go up

b) you have some good reason to think the line is moving in the wrong direction

Going against the market is usually a bad idea and there may be some factor you aren't taking into account, like an injury announcement for example.

[MrX]

Strangely enough, I have a model that performs slightly better against closing lines than opening ones.

[donjuan]

Voodoo magic master.

[MrX]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Voodoo magic master.

Either that or my model is almost entirely based on exploiting market misconceptions. I leave it for the reader to decide.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by donjuan

LT,

If you are consistently making bets that have +EV, you shouldn't wait unless

a) you are waiting for limits to go up

b) you have some good reason to think the line is moving in the wrong direction

Going against the market is usually a bad idea and there may be some factor you aren't taking into account, like an injury announcement for example.

I agree, and I think b applied in this case when you combine the facts that the total had already dropped 1.5 points since opening and the same two teams involved had played a game in the 160s just last week. Actually that doesn't mean "wrong" direction, but I expected better line later.

[donjuan]

MrX,

Then your model would fall under category B.

[MrX]

Originally Posted by donjuan

MrX,

Then your model would fall under category B.

Absolutely. I wasn't trying to refute what you had said. They make the limits low on those opening lines for a reason.