Need Advice

twtb19 · 04-08-2008, 08:06 PM

This happened today and I didn't know the proper way to handle this...

I had a two team parlay, it was risking 1 unit to win about 5 units. The first game won...so now I have one game remaining to win the roughly 5 units.

Should I trust my judgement on the second game or hedge my bet by betting on the other team. This would ensure a small profit, but obviously will be less profit if my team wins.

Any help or advice would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance, TW.

operaman · 04-08-2008, 08:24 PM

Do you like apples or oranges better?

twtb19 · 04-08-2008, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by operaman

Do you like apples or oranges better?

I have always in the past just let it ride, I am asking the opinion of others. So I am more curious as to how a serious bettor would play this since I am still relatively new. So in your case operaman, how do you handle it?

If I was jacking around I would be in the players talk forum, I came here because people usually give very good answers and can help out and give excellent suggestions.

durito · 04-08-2008, 08:38 PM

Do not hedge (unless there has been a change in your assessment of the game).

Otherwise there was no point in betting the parlay.

twtb19 · 04-08-2008, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by durito

Do not hedge (unless there has been a change in your assessment of the game).

Otherwise there was no point in betting the parlay.

Thanks Durito, you seem to offer good advice on a regular basis and your post is much appreciated.

Justin7 · 04-08-2008, 09:25 PM

A better approach in the future: bet less on the parlay - perhaps to win 1 unit.

As Durito said, hedging is normally -EV.

Why did you play both in a parlay? Unless limits are an issue, or the plays are correlated, parlays are a no-go for winners.

twtb19 · 04-08-2008, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

A better approach in the future: bet less on the parlay - perhaps to win 1 unit.

As Durito said, hedging is normally -EV.

Why did you play both in a parlay? Unless limits are an issue, or the plays are correlated, parlays are a no-go for winners.

Very good advice Justin and I definately appreciate your feedback. It makes more sense when someone tells you these things than when you are thinking through them sometimes.

Like I said above I have never hedged and didn't tonight, but have seen other posters mention hedging a parlay awhile back and thought I would take it to this area looking for real answers instead of a lot of the bs you get in players talk. I am new to this and really appreciate all the little tips I can get to make some money.

Thanks again durito and Justin for your responses.

LT Profits · 04-09-2008, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

Why did you play both in a parlay? Unless limits are an issue, or the plays are correlated, parlays are a no-go for winners.

Not true if you are a 54% or better handicapper. Then two-team parlays (or more specifically round robins by 2 with all your plays) can be quite lucrative.

At conventional 13/5 odds, the break-even point for two-teamers is 27.8%. A 54% handicapper will hit about 29%, a 55% capper 30%.

LT Profits · 04-09-2008, 12:58 AM

Oh back to the original question, the ONLY time I ever hedge my bets is if I have a high-odds long-term future wager. I never hedge parlays (then again, I never play more than two-team parlays) or any other type of short-term bet.

j$ · 04-09-2008, 02:51 AM

See at times this can be my problem with wagering. Usually the game I try to use to hedge ends up losing too then I begin the whole chase mode. I need to learn to quit doing that and start fresh like my picks from the night before. My advice don't hedge u can't win them all.

donjuan · 04-09-2008, 10:54 AM

-EV hedges, if properly sized, are usually going to be +EG. But then optimal hedging strategy depends on limits, bankroll size, and the EV of your hedge.

HedgeHog · 04-09-2008, 02:38 PM

What if the first bet lost? Would we even being having this conversation? Unless something has changed since you bet the par, then let it ride. Good luck.

Justin7 · 04-09-2008, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Not true if you are a 54% or better handicapper. Then two-team parlays (or more specifically round robins by 2 with all your plays) can be quite lucrative.

At conventional 13/5 odds, the break-even point for two-teamers is 27.8%. A 54% handicapper will hit about 29%, a 55% capper 30%.

LT: Assume you are a 54% capper.

What is your optimal kelly bet on a straigh bet?

what is it on a parlay?

What is your EV on each bet?

curious · 04-09-2008, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j$

See at times this can be my problem with wagering. Usually the game I try to use to hedge ends up losing too then I begin the whole chase mode. I need to learn to quit doing that and start fresh like my picks from the night before. My advice don't hedge u can't win them all.

You should only hedge using the game that is pending. If you have a two game parlay and game 1 is a winner then you hedge by using the opposing team in your game 2. Then you can't have the problem of the hedge losing.

The *&#$(@% NE Patriots blew up several six team parlays when I had 5 winners in and was waiting the outcome of a Patriots game last year. And, no I did not hedge, thinking the NE game was a "lock". Dammm maggots.

LT Profits · 04-09-2008, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

LT: Assume you are a 54% capper.

What is your optimal kelly bet on a straigh bet?

what is it on a parlay?

What is your EV on each bet?

If we further assume that I like three games and am playing full kelly, there would be three straight bets for 3.17% of BR each and a 3 x 2 round robin with a base bet of .11% of BR.

Each individual bet (straight or parlay) would have the same EV or .32% and the same EG of .16%.

All of this assumes -110 odds. Bets would obviously by higher at reduced juice shops.

Ganchrow · 04-09-2008, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LT Profits

If we further assume that I like three games and am playing full kelly, there would be three straight bets for 3.17% of BR each and a 3 x 2 round robin with a base bet of .11% of BR.

Each individual bet (straight or parlay) would have the same EV or .32% and the same EG of .16%.

All of this assumes -110 odds. Bets would obviously by higher at reduced juice shops.

Just as LT has explained, the Kelly optimal set of bets wopuld contain 3 straight bets, a 3x2 round-robin, and 1 3-team parlay.

But just to be cleat the EV's break down as follows:

each straight bet: 3.1727% of BR, ROI = 3.0909%, Total EV = 0.2942% of BR
each 2-teamer: 0.1117% of BR, ROI = 6.2774%, Total EV = 0.0210% of BR
3-teamer: 0.0039% of BR, ROI = 9.5623%, Total EV = 0.0004% of BR