[rake922]

Whats the probability of flipping a coin 6 times... and not getting a 3heads/3tails split ?

[durito]

68.75%

[epsacc]

Assuming that p(heads) = p(tails) = 0.5, probability of not getting 3 heads and 3 tails is given by 1 - probability(3 heads in 6 tosses).

1 - p(3 Heads) = 1 - (6 choose 3)*p(heads)^3*p(tails)^3 = 1 - (6 choose 3)*(.5)^3*(.5)^3 = 11/16 = 68.75%

[tool21]

I did a 'study' i guess you could say on this because i was building a chase system based on a 50% chance. The thing is you have a 50% chance every flip. It doesn't change with past flips because sample sizes are to small.

Great example.

Many people on this forum if they were to flip a coin the rest of their lives would have a streak of 20 heads or 20 tails in a row. Same goes with gambling. It's unpredictable and gambling has no memory. You have about a 50% give or take chance EVERY GAME. It is pretty common to flip a coin heads 6 times in a row believe it or not. I'm pretty sure it will happen within 200 bets.

[rake922]

Originally Posted by tool21

I did a 'study' i guess you could say on this because i was building a chase system based on a 50% chance. The thing is you have a 50% chance every flip. It doesn't change with past flips because sample sizes are to small.

Great example.

Many people on this forum if they were to flip a coin the rest of their lives would have a streak of 20 heads or 20 tails in a row. Same goes with gambling. It's unpredictable and gambling has no memory. You have about a 50% give or take chance EVERY GAME. It is pretty common to flip a coin heads 6 times in a row believe it or not. I'm pretty sure it will happen within 200 bets.

so are you disagreeing with the 2 above answers?

[tool21]

Believe it or not i must have read your post wrong....i'm sorry. I for some reason thought it was for 6 of the same in a row. i have no idea.

I built a 'simulator' in excel and recorder the results of about 500,000 flips at 50% each. The results were crazy. Basically any combination at any time over that many flips. I can't answer your question though, don't have time to think about it i have a test at 8am. Sorry bro!

[picoman]

Originally Posted by rake922

Whats the probability of flipping a coin 6 times... and not getting a 3heads/3tails split ?

are you going to use this in some kind of crazy parlay strategy?

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by tool21

Believe it or not i must have read your post wrong....i'm sorry. I for some reason thought it was for 6 of the same in a row. i have no idea.

I built a 'simulator' in excel and recorder the results of about 500,000 flips at 50% each. The results were crazy. Basically any combination at any time over that many flips. I can't answer your question though, don't have time to think about it i have a test at 8am. Sorry bro!

I don't mean this to be offensive, but it's the truth that if you can't do this calc, you really shouldn't be building simulators and models.

[picoman]

i think i got it. you must be thinking about reverse round robin parlays. you get screwed if you split 3-3.

[tool21]

Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby

I don't mean this to be offensive, but it's the truth that if you can't do this calc, you really shouldn't be building simulators and models.

Maybe you should read what i wrote. I didn't say i didn't know how to do it. I said "don't have time to think about it i have a test at 8am. Sorry bro!" I'll leave it at that. you don't know me so don't act like ya do.

26-10 NCAAB this year documented at EOG
102-74 ATS NBA this year documented at EOG

I think i know a little bit about handicapping and probabilities Mr. Lullaby. I mean being in my senior year of college and majoring in Mathmatics doesn't help does it? I haven't taken classes past calc 2? I've taken every math course under the sun. Come on dude... be serious it's what i do hahahaha

[donjuan]

26-10 NCAAB this year documented at EOG
102-74 ATS NBA this year documented at EOG

I think i know a little bit about handicapping and probabilities Mr. Lullaby.

Apparently none of your classes taught you anything about sample sizes.

[tool21]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Apparently none of your classes taught you anything about sample sizes.

That's why i'm here right?



Sorry bout getting this off topic you will see no more posts from me in this thread unless it's helpful, sorry!

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by tool21

Maybe you should read what i wrote. I didn't say i didn't know how to do it. I said "don't have time to think about it i have a test at 8am. Sorry bro!" I'll leave it at that. you don't know me so don't act like ya do.

26-10 NCAAB this year documented at EOG
102-74 ATS NBA this year documented at EOG

I think i know a little bit about handicapping and probabilities Mr. Lullaby. I mean being in my senior year of college and majoring in Mathmatics doesn't help does it? I haven't taken classes past calc 2? I've taken every math course under the sun. Come on dude... be serious it's what i do hahahaha

Dude, in my first quarter at UCLA I learned how to do calculations like this - in an Econ class nonetheless. I'm sorry, but I don't understand how a senior math major, particularly one who's taken Combinatorics (one of the math classes under the sun) could forget, even for a second, how to do this problem.

[picoman]

Originally Posted by tool21

Maybe you should read what i wrote. I didn't say i didn't know how to do it. I said "don't have time to think about it i have a test at 8am. Sorry bro!" I'll leave it at that. you don't know me so don't act like ya do.

26-10 NCAAB this year documented at EOG
102-74 ATS NBA this year documented at EOG

I think i know a little bit about handicapping and probabilities Mr. Lullaby. I mean being in my senior year of college and majoring in Mathmatics doesn't help does it? I haven't taken classes past calc 2? I've taken every math course under the sun. Come on dude... be serious it's what i do hahahaha

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