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03-31-2008, 05:36 PM
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#1 (permalink) |
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 01-25-08
Posts: 104
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Free throw multiplier in the Posessions equation
What do you use for NCAAB and NBA?
I've seen mostly .475 for NCAAB and .44(.436) for NBA. Anybody have others they like to use?
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"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy." Last edited by tool21 : 03-31-2008 at 05:44 PM. |
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03-31-2008, 05:47 PM
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#3 (permalink) |
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 01-25-08
Posts: 104
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[Actually, Oliver uses 0.4 as the multiplier for FTs. Ken Pomeroy has discovered that 0.475 works better for the college game. Oliver works with NBA data.]
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"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy." |
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03-31-2008, 05:48 PM
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#4 (permalink) |
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 01-25-08
Posts: 104
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Thanks Arnold, seems like your the only one that can post around here. Seriously, thanks.
I've been using .436 in NBA i'm trying to figure out a good number for College.
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"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy." |
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03-31-2008, 06:00 PM
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#6 (permalink) |
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 01-25-08
Posts: 104
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That Wiki page is a good read. A lot of soild info for beginners and vets to make sure they got things right. So it looks like .44 for NBA and .475 for NCAAB
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"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy." |
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03-31-2008, 06:47 PM
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#7 (permalink) |
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 12-03-06
Posts: 574
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I cap NCAA rather than NBA, so Pomeroy is like a demi-god to me and I would go with his number, .475 as Arnold says.
It might be worth pointing out that Pomeroy used to use .42 until he discovered .475 worked better. This doesn't matter if you're calculating it yourself, but some sites with possession data, like bbstate.com, still use .42 |
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04-02-2008, 09:32 PM
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#10 (permalink) | ||
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 04-08-07
Posts: 2,177
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Justin is a fairly knowledgeable capper, if he recommends something I'd be inclined to listen, tweaking or not.
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The wisdom of FISH Quote:
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04-02-2008, 09:56 PM
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#12 (permalink) |
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 01-25-08
Posts: 104
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Thank you for the information
I'm really not into reading statistical books though. I've played the sports i bet on and i think (atleast in my head) i know how they work enough to make a model. My math backround is better than average as well.
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"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy." Last edited by tool21 : 04-02-2008 at 10:02 PM. |
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