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Originally Posted by DrSlamm
is there ever a reason to bet the -127 instead of the -.5 at -120.. isnt the -.5 a 100 percent strictly better bet?
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Unless there's some World Cup-specific quirk of which I'm unaware (and it does seem like soccer betting is full of quirks), it does seem like Germany -0.5 -120 in regulation is strictly better than Germany -127 in regulation (counting a draw as a loss).
Actually, the former 3-way line implies a
lower probability of a German regulation-time victory (53.53% vs. 53.86%) and hence at zero vig a slightly
better deal for the bettor, but due to the higher juice (4.33% vs. 1.26%), it's ultimately an inferior bet.