[dmmx3]

Are there any notable differences among the various leagues in Europe? I realize some are better than others, but how about in terms of style of play, competitiveness of games, higher or lower scoring on average, etc. ?

How about compared to other International leagues?

Thanks for any insight.

dmm

[icemantbi]

Yeah, some leagues in Europe are more offense oriented, like the EPL. Others are more conservative and play a defensive game. Many clubs in Serie A favour a defensive formation, however the top teams (Like Milan, Inter, Juve, Roma) do play an attacking style of soccer at times.

In terms of which league is better, that's not clear cut. However, I would rank the leagues in Europe somewhere along the follwing (in terms of talent):

1. English Premiership
2. Serie A (Italy)
3. La Liga (Spain)
4. League 1 (France)
5. Bundesliga (Germany)
6. Portugese Liga
7. Eredivise (Holland)

After that, it gets murky. But the top Euro talent is basically confined to those leagues.

As far as rating vs. international leagues, Euro leagues are generally ranked as no. 1, with South American leagues (Brazil, Argentina, etc...) a close second. If it wasn't for Euro teams gobbling up South American players, I would say South America would probably be the no. 1 league in the world.

And if you want to compare Euro leagues against MLS, well Euro leagues blow MLS out of the water.

[Dark Horse]

Good listing of leagues. I wouldn't rank the French that high, though. Dutch soccer has a lot of goals as well. Every country has its own style. Generally, the quickest way to get a grasp of each style is to watch the national teams.

Easiest to cap? In my opinion the Champions League.

[dmmx3]

wow. thanks for the input!
the reason i ask is that i am working on some computer modeling for soccer, and am hoping i can use a similar model for each league, which is helpful because there will be 100 times as much data to input.

if i keep each league separate, the sample size will be much lower, and less efficient.

maybe ill do both, and see how that goes.

thanks again for the help

dmm

[Dark Horse]

Try to include ties as one of the focal points of your computer model. They pay off great (in the +250 range). Especially in a country like England, where betting is legal and where fans simply bet on their own teams. Off the top of my head the Italian league may have the most ties. On the road they play not to lose.

[Dark Horse]

Quick scan of the Italian league this short season, Sunday and Saturday games: 29 games played, 15 ties!

(At +200 you only need to win 1 out of 3 to play even).

[dmmx3]

good points... im developing a model to spit out an expected win%, draw% and lose%. Then will compare to the decimal lines and figure out where the value is.

I have 3 models:

1) using a modified power ranking i developed, predict a score, and then determine how often various outcomes occur with that specific predicted score. this will give W%, D%, and L%.

2) using a similar power ranking, predict a spread, and determine what % teams W, L, and D at a given spread.

3) using model 1 and 2, predict a goal total, and determine how often the Over and Under hit at various predictions.

so, in sum, i predict a score, but rather than use the prediction to bet, i use what has happened in the past when i have come up with a similar prediction.

draws are a key part.