1. 01-10-11 10:20 AM #1
    bostonbruins
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    The Italian Job

    I have a hard time believing that favorites win more often than draw or lose in Italy Serie A or B, so I'm starting this thread to track just that.

    0.5 unit plays on the dog and draw when the lines are at least +200 for each. I'm no math expert but it looks like a favorite winning costs me 1 unit , any other results breaks even or better.


    This looks to be about the halfway point in the season so I think it's a good time to start, this is for research purposes only but it's something I need to do because soccer has been driving me crazy lately.

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  2. 01-10-11 10:23 AM #2
    bostonbruins
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    Good day to start huge favorite and it's the only game of the day

    Grosseto (+812) 0.5u
    Grosseto/Atalanta Draw (+330) 0.5u
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  3. 01-10-11 10:28 AM #3
    The Special One
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    you have a great point here... I find that HOME advantage is quite overrated in the Italian leagues and that the odds are inflated because of that... it is more profitable to pick a side in a game based on form and ability rather than simply being at home...

    I will follow this forum and hope that you discover a profitable trend
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  4. 01-14-11 07:55 AM #4
    bostonbruins
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    I understand the win percentage will be very low but I'm only interested in the end result


    Record: 0-2 -1u



    Pescara (+715) 0.5u
    Pescara/Siena Draw (+309) 0.5u
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  5. 01-14-11 08:06 AM #5
    hustla
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    If you can tolerate the high variance, you will make some profit with this stuff, good luck
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  6. 01-14-11 09:58 AM #6
    bozeman
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    man it would be easier just to spend half a day going through some website from the history of those leagues and not waste time on a 55-60 percent system
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  7. 01-14-11 10:29 AM #7
    bostonbruins
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    I'm not interested in history, I'm looking at the 2nd half of this season, and if these bets hit 55-60 % I wouldn't exactly say it's waste of time since the average line will be over +200.
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  8. 01-14-11 10:36 AM #8
    The Special One
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    Keep going BB. Follow your first instinct...
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  9. 01-15-11 10:25 AM #9
    bostonbruins
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    Got lines from Bodog because I slept late , might have missed out on a few games

    Record 0-4 -2u


    Triestina +300 LOSS
    Triestina/Albinoleffe Draw +215 WIN

    Frosinone +380 LOSS
    Frosinone/Empoli Draw +225 LOSS

    Padova +350 LOSS
    Padova/Novara Draw +240 WIN

    Portogruaro +400 LOSS
    Portogruaro/Cittadella Draw +210 WIN
    Last edited by bostonbruins; 01-15-11 at 10:28 AM.
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  10. 01-15-11 10:29 AM #10
    bostonbruins
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    Record 3-9 -0.93u
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  11. 01-15-11 10:40 AM #11
    bostonbruins
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    Bologna +1284
    Bologna/Inter Draw +462

    Fiorentina +509
    Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273
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  12. 01-15-11 01:03 PM #12
    bostonbruins
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Bologna +1284
    Bologna/Inter Draw +462

    Fiorentina +509 LOSS
    Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273 WIN

    Record 4-10 -.07u
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  13. 01-17-11 10:31 AM #13
    bostonbruins
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    Record 4-12 -1.07u


    Reggina +212
    Reggina/Crotone Draw +202
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  14. 01-17-11 10:36 AM #14
    The Special One
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    hey BB, you should have tried this on Lecce vs Milan - easy $$$$ money on DRAW...
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  15. 01-17-11 11:12 AM #15
    bostonbruins
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    I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up
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  16. 01-17-11 11:33 AM #16
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up
    when do you wake up? the game was at 2:45pm...
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  17. 01-17-11 12:32 PM #17
    bostonbruins
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    There are some rough nights man , but I actually missed that one due to NFL
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  18. 01-17-11 12:50 PM #18
    The Special One
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    true, I was just joking...
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  19. 01-17-11 03:44 PM #19
    bostonbruins
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Record 4-12 -1.07u


    Reggina +212 LOSS
    Reggina/Crotone Draw +202 WIN



    Record: 5-13 -.56u
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  20. 01-19-11 12:29 PM #20
    bostonbruins
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    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

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  21. 01-19-11 12:32 PM #21
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

    hey BB, I wouldnt do that, because DOGS will begin to win and you will regret...
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  22. 01-19-11 12:46 PM #22
    amonsot
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


    Record: 5-13 -.56u


    Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u
    just so i follow. you are now betting small on favourites to draw a game? how are you picking the games?
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  23. 01-22-11 10:56 AM #23
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 5-14 -1.06u


    Brescia/Palermo Draw +374
    Cagliari/Roma Draw +289


    Sunday

    Lecce/Fiorentina Draw +333
    Cesena/AC Milan Draw +606
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  24. 01-24-11 10:36 AM #24
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 6-17 -0.89u



    Novara/Triestina Draw +207
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  25. 01-24-11 10:42 AM #25
    rfr3sh
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    boston

    check out www.soccerstats.com they have kept track of the winning %'s this season for each league you can see it on the home page
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  26. 01-24-11 03:39 PM #26
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 7-17 +0.14u


    thanks for the site, looks good
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  27. 01-24-11 03:42 PM #27
    JOHON8
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    I'm surprised you never took Udinese to win vs Inter, they were the underdogs of the season in that game. What is it like 13 goals in 4 games they have? Def a team that's actually challenging for the title.
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  28. 01-25-11 09:53 AM #28
    bostonbruins
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    Gambling is taking a backseat to other things right now, missing alot


    Record: 7-17 +0.14u


    Padova/Livorno Draw +231
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  29. 01-25-11 03:40 PM #29
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 8-17 +1.3u
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  30. 01-31-11 09:52 AM #30
    bostonbruins
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    Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249
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  31. 01-31-11 10:11 AM #31
    ararat2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by bostonbruins View Post
    Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249
    Like it - lets cash! BOL )))
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  32. 01-31-11 03:38 PM #32
    bostonbruins
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    Record: 8-18 +0.8u
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  33. 01-31-11 04:01 PM #33
    Optional
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    Your record should really read 8-6, taken on a match by match basis.

    Agree with those that say you should stick with the .5 unit on win and draw idea too. Or just take the spread on the dog.
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  34. 01-31-11 04:10 PM #34
    psv777ua
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  35. 01-31-11 04:31 PM #35
    bostonbruins
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    Spread on the dog would probably yield a higher win percentage but I think the prices would put me in the red before too long. I stuck with the draws because they seem more likely than a dog winning outright.
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