[jetfalcon]

Free picks from www.tippetipp.com, a new service with 8w-0v-3l so far.

Today's Tips - Sept 02:

Today's Match: Thor Akureyri vs KA Akureyri

League: 1. Delid, Iceland

Bet: Thor Akureyri AH -1

Odds: 2.05 (Bet365)

Thor Akureyri is unbeaten last 5 matches, and has covered handicap in the last 2 matches (4-0 and 5-0). They are 2 points behind first place in the league, so should be motivated to get on top of the table. KA Akureyri has 2 draws and 1 loss the last 3 games , and are placed in the middle of the table. Thor won 2-0 in the last meeting in July, and should cover the handicap again. According to stats at soccerway.com, it seems like KA will have at least one of their top goal scores out tonight (5 yellow cards), but this is not confirmed.

[Glada Tartan]

Hmm... Your page seems kinda´ interesting...

Bets: 9 (Won 6 – Lost 3)
Odds avg: 2,275
Odds avg won: 2,27
Odds avg lost: 2,29

Really like the average odds...

For the game? Iceland league... wtf

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by Glada Tartan

Hmm... Your page seems kinda´ interesting...

Bets: 9 (Won 6 – Lost 3)
Odds avg: 2,275
Odds avg won: 2,27
Odds avg lost: 2,29

Really like the average odds...

For the game? Iceland league... wtf

Thanks, I guess the average odds will drop a little bit, but very satisfied with the start... Slow market today or actually the whole week due to all the international games, so then we have to dig into small leagues...

[Gracchus]

Seems all the blogging cappers are on Thor today, over the last few hours AH -1 @ Bet365 went from 2.05 to 1.775

[JOHON8]

Originally Posted by Gracchus

Seems all the blogging cappers are on Thor today, over the last few hours AH -1 @ Bet365 went from 2.05 to 1.775

Can you name a few of the top blogs you looked at?

[Blue_Chips]

Originally Posted by jetfalcon

Free picks from www.tippetipp.com, a new service with 8w-0v-3l so far.

Today's Tips - Sept 02:

Today's Match: Thor Akureyri vs KA Akureyri

League: 1. Delid, Iceland

Bet: Thor Akureyri AH -1

Odds: 2.05 (Bet365)

Thor Akureyri is unbeaten last 5 matches, and has covered handicap in the last 2 matches (4-0 and 5-0). They are 2 points behind first place in the league, so should be motivated to get on top of the table. KA Akureyri has 2 draws and 1 loss the last 3 games , and are placed in the middle of the table. Thor won 2-0 in the last meeting in July, and should cover the handicap again. According to stats at soccerway.com, it seems like KA will have at least one of their top goal scores out tonight (5 yellow cards), but this is not confirmed.

Since they are scoring so much, and they do score in this league, why not take the over 2.5?

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by Blue_Chips

Since they are scoring so much, and they do score in this league, why not take the over 2.5?

The odds for over 2,5 is arond 1,60-1,70, so I find better value in AH -1. Last meeting it ended 2-0, and it could happen again. But, according to Icelandic rules, the two top goalscorers for KA will play today (all suspensions take effect on Fridays..!), so it might be some goals, yes!

GL with your bets!

[beeps220]

2-0 Thor 23 min in

Of course friggin 5 Dimes took the match off the board hours before start time

[jetfalcon]

Looking good, but still 45 minutes left!

[jetfalcon]

3-0 and bet won. Will be back tomorrow, hopefully with another winning bet. Stats for September is 3-0-0, and overall 9-0-3.

[Blue_Chips]

Good job!

[jetfalcon]

Today's bet - Sep 03 @ tippetipp.com


Match: Dundalk – Bray Wanderers
League: Ireland Premier League
Bet: Dundalk AH -0,75
Odds: 2.19 (SBOBET)
Units: 3


Comments:
Dundalk is really out of form, with 3 defeats and 2 draws last 5 games, and with 3-6 goal score. But, they have met top 5 teams in these matches, so I am not too worried about these results. More important is that they got their captain Liam Burns back in last game. He might not be fully recovered, but will anyway strengthen the team.
Bray is lost in the bottom of the table, only winning 2 out of the last 8 games, with a 7-21 goal score. They have taken just five points from their last 11 league outings and have a current run of 19 games without a clean sheet. Bray’s two goal hero and Ford man of the match in their Cup win over U.C.D.last Friday night Jake Kelly is a big doubt for the trip to Dundalk on Friday night with a shoulder injury. Also doubtful is John Mulroy who had to sit out last weeks win with a back injury.
Great opportunity for Dundalk to get on the winning track again, and they should cover -0,75 handicap, medium stakes!

[tommygun]

gd luck!

[Blue_Chips]

Yes. Good luck tomorrow!

[jetfalcon]

Thx guys!

[Glada Tartan]

U got. it.. GL today !

[jetfalcon]

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck

[jetfalcon]

Bet lost today, current stats is 3-0-1 in September, 9-0-3 overall.

Today´s Tips, Sept 04 from Tippetipp.com:

Match: Bury – Gillingham
League: League 2, England
Bet: Bury
Odds: 2.38 (BlueSq)
Units: 2


Comments:
Bad start for both teams so far in League 2. Bury has 1-2-1 so far with goal score 4-4, while Gillingham has 0-3-1 and 2-3 goal score. Bury should have a full strength squad for the game, with striker Andy Bishop pushing for a recall, while Gillingham are again facing selection problems ahead of their trip to Bury. Injuries have plagued the Gills’ first month back in League 2 and they do not appear to be getting much better after the midweek injuries to Andy Barcham and Cody McDonald, while Striker Adebayo Akinfenwa has been having injections to cure a niggling shoulder problem but should play.


Small stakes on Bury in this game, I think home advantage combined with long injury list for Gillingham will decide this clash, and good value imo. I will also try a very small stake on Gillingham not to score, odds around 2,70, but that is not an official bet.

[Sportslover]

Good luck.

Do you use math/statistics at all to estimate if your plays are +EV or do you just bet based on your own opinion of the situational factors surrounding a given match? Just interested in how you approach your analysis of games.

Hope you continue to have plenty of success in the future.

[jetfalcon]

I have not tried to estimate my plays if they are +EV, and I'm not sure if I want to try either, ref this article about +EV. Even though I make my predictions, how can I find out whether the numbers are correct or not? Have you tried it?

My bets are based on as much information I can gather about the game; statistics, form, previews, injuries/suspensions, transfers, trends, historical data, weather, upcoming events that can affect the match etc... The same information as most of the other tipsters are looking for, I guess. But I always try to improve, so if you have another approach I would love to hear more from you.

Good luck!

[Blue_Chips]

Do you bet totals?

[JOHON8]

Thanks for the heads up on this game jet, I think people should look for info you are instead of concentrating totally on stats.

By the way, how did you pick this game out of the hundreds of games tomorrow?

GL.

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by jetfalcon

I have not tried to estimate my plays if they are +EV, and I'm not sure if I want to try either, ref this article about +EV. Even though I make my predictions, how can I find out whether the numbers are correct or not? Have you tried it?

My bets are based on as much information I can gather about the game; statistics, form, previews, injuries/suspensions, transfers, trends, historical data, weather, upcoming events that can affect the match etc... The same information as most of the other tipsters are looking for, I guess. But I always try to improve, so if you have another approach I would love to hear more from you.

Good luck!

Sounds good, was just interested to see what kind of approach you used.

I agree that it's impossible to estimate the exact EV of each of your bets. However, I do believe that you can make a close estimation of the EV of your bets.

If you can accurately determine how many goals you expect each team to score in a certain match then you can calculate the fair odds and probability of each outcome: win/loss/draw or asian handicap.

The only thing is that you need to track how accurately you determine the expected goals for each team. If your stats show that your predictions are accurate over a large sample size of results, then you know that you can make an accurate (but not perfect) estimation of the EV of your bets.

I have a spreadsheet where you input some data and then it calculates the expected goals for each team in a match. It then automatically calculates the fair odds and probabilities of win/loss/draw and the fair odds and probabilities for all the asian handicaps between -5 and +5 for each team. It also calculates the probability of each team winning by exactly 1 goal, exactly 2 goals, exactly 3 goals, exactly 4 goals and exactly 5 goals.

Once I select my potential bets from my spreadsheet, I then proceed to look at situational factors such as injuries, recent form and so on. But I always look at the stats first, pick out potential bets and then look for situational information after that. If the situational information has a negative effect on my spreadsheet's potential bets, then I would not bet on this game. If the situational information has a positive or neutral effect on my spreadsheet's potential bets, then I would place a bet on this game.

So basically I look at both stats and other normal information, my analysis is a combination of the two, however, the stats must always indicate a +EV bet, otherwise I'd would not place the bet.

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by Blue_Chips

Do you bet totals?

Blue_Chips, yes I bet on totals sometimes!

[Blue_Chips]

Originally Posted by jetfalcon

Blue_Chips, yes I bet on totals sometimes!

Will you have one for Saturday?

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by Blue_Chips

Will you have one for Saturday?

No more plays for today I am afraid, don't have time to go through more games. But check back tonight or tomorrow, I might find a game for you by then.

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by JOHON8

Thanks for the heads up on this game jet, I think people should look for info you are instead of concentrating totally on stats.

By the way, how did you pick this game out of the hundreds of games tomorrow?

GL.

I agree on using valuable information about the teams instead of pure statistics. The bookmakers use a lot of statistics, and then it is even more important for us to find information they haven't considering when setting the odds.

It is impossible (at least for me) to go through hundreds of games each day, so I try to focus on spesific leagues that I find interesting. The top leagues are fully covered and it´s not often to find value in those games. I mostly follow Championship, League 1 & 2 in England, all Scandianavian leagues and Irish soccer. I also have friends and other tipsters that can provide me with useful information about other leagues, that's why I cover American sports and Icehockey a few times during the month.

Hope that answered your question, John!

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by Sportslover

Sounds good, was just interested to see what kind of approach you used.

I agree that it's impossible to estimate the exact EV of each of your bets. However, I do believe that you can make a close estimation of the EV of your bets.

If you can accurately determine how many goals you expect each team to score in a certain match then you can calculate the fair odds and probability of each outcome: win/loss/draw or asian handicap.

The only thing is that you need to track how accurately you determine the expected goals for each team. If your stats show that your predictions are accurate over a large sample size of results, then you know that you can make an accurate (but not perfect) estimation of the EV of your bets.

I have a spreadsheet where you input some data and then it calculates the expected goals for each team in a match. It then automatically calculates the fair odds and probabilities of win/loss/draw and the fair odds and probabilities for all the asian handicaps between -5 and +5 for each team. It also calculates the probability of each team winning by exactly 1 goal, exactly 2 goals, exactly 3 goals, exactly 4 goals and exactly 5 goals.

Once I select my potential bets from my spreadsheet, I then proceed to look at situational factors such as injuries, recent form and so on. But I always look at the stats first, pick out potential bets and then look for situational information after that. If the situational information has a negative effect on my spreadsheet's potential bets, then I would not bet on this game. If the situational information has a positive or neutral effect on my spreadsheet's potential bets, then I would place a bet on this game.

So basically I look at both stats and other normal information, my analysis is a combination of the two, however, the stats must always indicate a +EV bet, otherwise I'd would not place the bet.

I find your approach quite interesting, but which factors are you considering when putting in data in the spreadsheet? Like this weekend for example, if you should find a +EV from League 1 or 2, you only have 4 league games and a couple of cup games to rely on, I assume that you don´t use historical data in your prediction? There will always be a lot of human factors involved, so it must be quite hard to calculate. But, as you say, you have stastitics that show that your predictions are pretty good, then you should use the data.

There are a lot of websites that provide similiar estimation, but it´s often hard to find out what factors they use when they calculate value and goal score. Are you just using your spreadsheet, or have any favourite websites to collect your information?

[Tommy_de1st]

Jetfalcon, is tippetipp your service? or you just use it to help/guide you with plays?

[jetfalcon]

Originally Posted by Tommy_de1st

Jetfalcon, is tippetipp your service? or you just use it to help/guide you with plays?

Tippetipp is my project, yes. Just started, but hope I can provide the visitors with good tips and a little profit each month. I will try to implement the Iphone app during the next month.

[diggnation+TRS]

Originally Posted by jetfalcon

Tippetipp is my project, yes. Just started, but hope I can provide the visitors with good tips and a little profit each month. I will try to implement the Iphone app during the next month.

are you gonna charge for the app? coz personally i wouldnt mind (considering the avg price of an iphone app) coz ur analysis of games are really good

[Blue_Chips]

Are you playing anything else today?

[jetfalcon]

I don´t think so, have to recover after that crazy game @ Bury! Thought everything was safe after 45 min, but Gillingham never gave up. Was not the biggest optimist when the score was 4-4, but it all ended good, fortunately! Bet won!

Check back around 10 PM, if I have another bet it should be posted then.

[Blue_Chips]

10pm? I'm in California. It's 9:22 am here.