[Squirrel]

OVERALL:
Its always hard to find good value in the outright markets since its always the same teams that are there or thereabouts. There are probably only 4 teams that are capable of winning the world cup and the betting reflects that, Spain and Brazil will probably be close and teams like Argentina, Holland and England will not be far behind. Its hard to fancy any of the African contingent, and the home team advantage for South Africa is negated by the fact they are absolute trash. If this had been held in one of the "better" African nations then it may have been different, but its very hard to look past the top European teams along with Brazil and Argentina. The closest thing to a decent play on outrights for me is HOLLAND, they have an easy group and also the prospect of an easy 2nd round game against Paraguay or Slovakia, and once they reach the Quarter Finals anything can happen. Worst case scenario is it will be possible to hedge out if one or two of the other seeds have been eliminated by that point.
THE PLAY - HOLLAND +1100

GOLDEN BOOT:
This is a VERY tough bet to call every single year for so many reasons and this is no different. Normally the way I approach this is look at the best teams who only have one out and out striker on the field, this leads me to Luis Fabiano but his price in the market shows this and isnt really value. The Spanish pair of Villa and Torres should score a few behind them but I have no call as to who scores the most, same situation with Holland in a way because I dont know how they will line up. England, Italy and any of the other contenders dont really score enough to make me take note. I'm gonna plump for an Argie and hope the lineup is as I predict it will b, taking Gonzalo Higuian, I know they have Messi but I fear he will just get marked out of the game and it will be down to someone else to score the goals. I also see the Argies making the semis and coupled with an easy group they should be good for a few goals - no reason why Higuain cant score plenty coming off the back of an excellent season with Real Madrid.
THE PLAY - GONZALO HIGUAIN +2000

GROUP A:
This is a hard group to call since the top seeded team are France, who just arent what they used to be but have a massive advantage of very poor opposition. I expect South Africa to be comfortably eliminated here with Uruguay and Mexico fighting it out for 2nd spot behind France, I give the advantage in that battle to Uruguay just because I believe the only game South Africa have a chance of even getting a draw in is the opener, just because of the occasion, against Mexico. I can see the final group game coming around with Mexico needing to beat Uruguay to qualify, but a draw being good enough and that is a massive advantage,
THE PLAY - URUGUAY TO QUALIFY +110

GROUP B:
This group should be a laugher for Argentina to win to be honest, its hard to see any of the other 3 teams upsetting them and thats why there is no value in their price whatsoever. Like the previous group its a toss up for 2nd place, this time between Greece and Nigeria, I think South Korea will finish in 4th place. Neither Greece or Nigeria are all that good to be honest, but Nigeria will have the advantage of at least being more familiar with African conditions and temperatures. It really is hard to call this and its 50/50 for me who finishes 2nd, so obviously the smart play is on the team comfortable with the conditions, namely Nigeria, hopefully they get a draw in the opener against Argentina and go from there.
THE PLAY - GREECE TO QUALIFY +150

GROUP C:
This is the group where I am going totally against public expectation and the bookies themselves. I'm fancying Slovenia to finish 2nd behind England with the USA and Algeria being eliminated. The fixtures for this are set up for Slovenia, the Yanks will likely lose to England in the opening game and Slovenia should take care of Algeria - the pressure would then be on the USA to beat Slovenai in matchday 2 otherwise they'd be eliminated, I dont think even a draw wouldnt be good enough if England had already qualified by the time the last round of matches came around - Slovenia could easily get a point against Englands backup players.
THE PLAY - ENGLAND/SLOVENIA (SF) +350

GROUP D:
The hardest group of them all to call this one, any of the 4 teams can realistically qualify and even the group winners are debatable. Germany are an old team and arent as good as they have been but they have a habit of turning up for major events. Serbia are a dangerous team and could easily win the group ahead of Germany, with Ghana and Australia fighting just behind them. It really can go any way this group but I fancy Serbia to beat Ghana in matchday 1 and go from there, Australia have a tough first game and its hard to see them qualifying, although they may finish 3rd. Ghana have an advantage of being African, but I dont fancy them to upset Germany or Serbia.
THE PLAY - SERBIA TO WIN GROUP +330

GROUP E:
Fairly easy to call this group with Holland as the winners, its hard to see any of the other teams being good enough defensively to keep pace with Holland, who often start well in major tournaments. After that I really am not sure whats going to happen at all, apart from Japan probably coming last. Cameroon and Denmark will both beat Japan and lose to Holland I reckons, meaning the matchup between them is absolutely key to what happens - I fancy Cameroon to get the result they need in that since the pressure will be on Denmark, who by that point will have lost to Holland. I'm always happy to go with the teams who have points on the board in that situation.
THE PLAY: CAMEROON TO QUALIFY +110

GROUP F:
This might well be the lowest scoring and least entertaining group i've seen in the World cup in a while, partly down to the fact that the top seeds and probable group winners are Italy, a known defensive team. I dont really know what to expect of Paraguay or Slovakia since i'm not all that familiar with either of them, but I do know that New Zealand will likely lose every game and not score a goal. Since I dont know much about the 'middle' teams its hard to find any play that I really like, but the total goals prop looks decent to me.
THE PLAY: TOTAL GROUP GOALS u13 +220

GROUP G:
A week or so ago i'd basically penned this group in as the easiest to call, due to my belief that Portugal are an over-rated one man team and the days of those succeeding at the big level are gone. Didier Drogba will play some part I would have thought, but just the fact he is a doubt puts Ivory Coast in a tough position and its widely known that they are under intense pressure from back home to do well, since its probably their best squad in ages. Brazil will hit the ground and win the group easily, and I will hold to my original theory of the Ivory Coast finishing 2nd and just hope that Drogba can play some part - Portugal will finish 3rd I think and North Korea will be bottom without registering a point on the board.
THE PLAY: BRAZIL/IVORY COAST (SF) +275

GROUP H:
So to the group involving the current favourites, Spain, and lets face it they couldnt have gotten an easier set of opponents if they'd actually picked the draw themselves. I expect them to come through this group without really being troubled at all, Honduras are a poor team and I dont rate Chile or Switzerland - I dont know loads about the latter 2 but their respective squads dont appeal to me at all. Finding value is hard when I know who the group winners will be, but have no real lean as to what will occur behind them. Since I think its a pick 'em between Switzerland and Chile to qualify, I will play the outsider of the two as per usual.
THE PLAY: SWITZERLAND TO QUALIFY +162

I will be back later today with some picks from the opening round of group matches, but wont be posting them everyday - more than likely post picks for each sets of group games as they come round as I see whats happening etc. These are all just my opinions and picks and nothing more, but please feel free to flame and abuse me if you see fit to do so.....!

[cro]

i like 2 group e and group g
the rest i would never play, but good luck

[Squirrel]

Originally Posted by cro

i like 2 the rest i would never play, but good luck

Thats what I like to hear, if people agree with me too much then I get scared at whats happening to the world.

Cheers pally

[Om3n]

Spain is the cup winner!!!

[Squirrel]

Right got those plays locked in and am gonna stick a few game plays on for the first few days of games - I'm not all that keen on playing opening rounds but its the world cup so, hey, it'd be rude not to. I'm also not high on making picks days before the game but I have a load of family shit to do this weekend so wont be online until Tuesday probably. So, here it goes...

South Africa vs Mexico - FT Draw +229 (FRIDAY)
This is just too good of a chance to pass up in taking the draw here. This is the only game where I have South Africa collecting any points at all, they should be able to get a draw against Mexico just based on the occasion. They dont have the skill to beat Mexico I dont think, but they should be able to put up a good fight. It was a toss up between this and unders since I think it ends 0-0 or 1-1.

Argentina vs Nigeria - ARG/ARG Double Result +137 (SATURDAY)
I cant see anything but an Argentina win here, and a comfortable one at that. A lot is made of Maradonas incompetence but when you have a front five as talented as the Argies do, you have to expect they can win against what IMO is an average Nigerian side. Argentina will want to hit the ground running and put those writing them off in their place.

England vs USA - England -1.5 +137 (SATURDAY)
England will win this and win it fairly comfortably I reckon, I'm just not buying the USA at all and whilst everyone is fully fit then England are always going to be fairly solid. Most of Englands problems will come if any of the starters get injured, but that should be an issue for this. I couldnt decide between 2-0 or 3-0 final score so took the -1.5 instead.

Serbia vs Ghana - Serbia to win +120 (SUNDAY)
Getting plus money on the team I think will win the group versus the team I think will finish 4th, thank you very much. Serbia are a decent team and solid if unspectactular across the field. Serbia will be all out for a win here since they know if they do it will put less pressure on them in the second match against Germany, so I think they will get a low scoring win here.

Italy vs Paraguay - Italy to win +105 (MONDAY)
I thought when I saw this it was a rogue line but I talked to the bookie and its legit, no idea why arguably the strongest defense in the tournament are plus money against jokers like Paraguay. Italy for me may struggle later in the tournament for goals or against teams who will completely batter them, but they should be able to get a goal from somewhere here and kill the game off.

Thats all I have played for the group games between now and the end of Mondays games - I have a play on the Brazil game lined up but I should be back online by that time to lock it in. Again its a pain in the arris that I have to play all these now, but I cant let my birthday celebrations get in the way of a good bit of action on the world cup. Also remember, these are just my opinions and my plays, tail em/fade em/flame me, do whatever you please

Good luck whatever you play on the first few games fellas

[Smogs]

Cannot disagree with a single match bet, love the fact we are both on 3 of the 5 match bets you have highlighted.

Some controversial future bets, but BOL on them

[Smogs]

Let's bring this cup back for Sir Bobby

[phenomenon]

goodluck brother

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

You can't seriously be playing 9 props... You going to lose atleast half of them if not 70% of them. Bad betting strategy but GL.

[OLBG Sports]

GL on your plays!!!

[Squirrel]

Originally Posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

You can't seriously be playing 9 props... You going to lose atleast half of them if not 70% of them. Bad betting strategy but GL.

No of course not, i'm playing 10 - 1 for each group and 1 for outright winner and golden boot ... Same as I do every world cup. Doesnt matter if I do lose 70% of them if Holland win it all and Higuain is top scorer though, does it? It matters even less if I use the bottom part of your estimate and only lose 50%......

[MauriceDuval]

GREECE = SHIT.

We should all fade them for all their games.

[Squirrel]

Originally Posted by Squirrel

South Africa vs Mexico - FT Draw +229 (FRIDAY)

Always nice to get underway with a winner.

1-0 +2.29u

[caracalla]

Interesting thoughts, probably I'll folllow you except for holland (it was my favourite too, but without Robben is very difficult)
GL

[caracalla]

according your advices, my bets are

Greece advance +156
Slov adv +197
Camer adv +113
Switz adv +167
Serbia win group +325

Arg/Arg +126
Engl -1.5 +152
Serbia +120

GL

[Tommy_de1st]

Gl squirrel
Mostly agree with you but you understimate South Korea

[Smogs]

I think we both need to forget Greece, they are friggin awful

[Tommy_de1st]

There is still 2nd half but Koreanians are simply better

[facasto]

So far Argentina seems good....

[Squirrel]

Cheers for the responses fellas - apologies it took so long to get back here, been away for an early birthday mash-up

Originally Posted by Smogs

I think we both need to forget Greece, they are friggin awful

Absolutely mate, the Greece pick was because I seem to have under-estimated South Korea an awful lot, as someone has already pointed out in this thread.

Oh well, c'est la vie, hopefully the figures at the end still show profits.

[Squirrel]

2-3 +0.66

..after the first batch of single game plays. Not quite the result I was looking for but none of the good teams have really shined so far - hopefully things get a bit better as the tourney goes on.

Back later tonight/early tomorrow if I see anything I like for tomorrows plays (going day to day for the next few at least)

[Smogs]

Originally Posted by Squirrel

2-3 +0.66

..after the first batch of single game plays. Not quite the result I was looking for but none of the good teams have really shined so far - hopefully things get a bit better as the tourney goes on.

Back later tonight/early tomorrow if I see anything I like for tomorrows plays (going day to day for the next few at least)

I'll keep an eye out

[Squirrel]

Even though its the opening rounds of the group games i'm looking at 2 big blowouts on Tuesday.

Slovakia vs New Zealand - Slovakia -1.5 +137 (TUESDAY)
Slovakia came out on top of a decent enough European qualifying group whilst IMO New Zealand should not even be at this world cup, the only reason they are is because Australia legged it to the Asian qualifying zone. I'm not seeing anything in the NZ team that suggests they can compete with even an average European side in a competetive game, the motivation is there for Slovakia to set their stall out and grab a win knowing Italy and Paraguay drew tonight.

Absolutely no clue what i'm doing with the 2 later games yet but this will do for the 12.30pm kick off.

[Tommy_de1st]

Spot on squirrel.
The group Slovakia was in wasn't decent. Very average i would say

[Squirrel]

I think it was quite strong to be honest, not the strongest obviously but Slovakia did well to come through it top of the group - Slovenia and the Czech Republic are tough to beat, as are Poland and Northern Ireland at home - Every team in that group would beat New Zealand 14 times out of 15 IMO.

[Tommy_de1st]

Originally Posted by Squirrel

I think it was quite strong to be honest, not the strongest obviously but Slovakia did well to come through it top of the group - Slovenia and the Czech Republic are tough to beat, as are Poland and Northern Ireland at home - Every team in that group would beat New Zealand 14 times out of 15 IMO.

Exactly but this is WC. Noone wants to lose, they are motivated

[Squirrel]

Ivory Coast vs Portugal - FT Draw +229 (TUESDAY)
Ivory Coast vs Portugal - HT Draw +100 (TUESDAY)
I Still cant split these and see a draw coming here. Drogba plays for the Ivory Coast which is a morale booster even if he's not up to the task as an attacking force - I'm also not buying into Portugal as an attacking team, aside from Ronaldo they rely on an over-the-hill Deco and a vastly over-rated (IMO, obviously) Simao Sabrosa. They both know that if they lose this game they will effectively be eliminated barring a miracle so a cagey midfield battle and a draw looks likely to me.I have also played the HT draw since even money seems just too good to be true, these world cup games have very rarely opened up in the first half a teams acclimitise to the conditions and the ball (allegedly). If the game plays out as I expect a HT draw would give me basically a free bet on the FT draw.

GL Boys

[Squirrel]

Like taking candy from a baby - I've never enjoyed such a drab game like this so much in a long time

[Squirrel]

Brazil vs North Korea - Over 3.5 Goals +150 (TUESDAY)
Brazil vs North Korea - Over 4.5 Goals +350 (TUESDAY)
This tentative, softly-sofly crap ends TONIGHT. This is one of the biggest mismatches in terms of talent thats even possible at a world cup - Brazil always start tournaments with a win and they have goals in them throughout the side, even fullbacks like Maicon will spend more time in the Korean penalty box than their own half. I'm tired of watching crap football and under 1.5 goals bets cashing, its time that shit was regressing and the goals starting to fly in. No excuses for Brazil not to hit the ground running, the ball shouldnt be a problem to a team who plays possesion football.

Come on Brazil - restore my faith in this tournament FFS.

As always GL to everyone whatever you play

[Squirrel]

Chile vs Honduras - FT Draw +275
Chile vs Honduras - Under 1.5 Goals +175
I feel this game will complete the "drab" trend of opening games nicely with neither side wanting to lose. Honduras are fairly average going forward and their best striker is out for the tournament, whilst Humberto Suazo is fairly likely to only play a small part. I'm thinking Honduras will set up everything in front of the goalie and hope for 0-0, I do feel Chile have the quality to blow them out but would likely settle for 1-0 and 3pts on the board. Backing the draw and under 1.5 here, 0-0 would be ideal.

Now ive picked out unders and the draw then Chile are sure to win 5-0 so make sure you tune in boys

[Smogs]

At least one of us is making profit today

[Squirrel]

I was thinking that but looking at the bets for this game, if Honduras were to win 2-0 then i'd lose both of my bets, and you'd have a loss and a push meaning no profit for either of us.

I wonder what the outcome is gonna fukkin be....

[Smogs]

No Suazo for Chile so your under looks good. I'd say this is a game we should have left alone but wtf is there to do around here except gamble and steal cars

[Squirrel]

Nothing at all - although this is my last day of betting every game for a while ... I have various birthday piss-ups planned for the next 4 days

[Smogs]

It's Arena on thursday for me, then California on Monday so it might be hard to post from then on, might actually save me some money