Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer
Hi!
This thread is all about correct score betting based on statistical data.
The tool I use for this is only avaible in german and its quite difficult to understand. Even as a native speaker it took me about 30-40 hours to install, prepare the tool and understand the basics. I am far away from being an expert in the use of it but I am able to work with it and get some very interesting results.
The tool can create systems for the following markets:
Home, Draw, Away
Over 2,5 / Under 2,5
Correct Scores: 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 0-1
Its very sad that the software is limited to these markets, but even with only these markets its still great.
There are many categories of aspects with several under aspects. F.e.:
Aspect categorie: Home Teams last games
Under aspects: Last Win, Last 2 Wins, Last 5 Wins, Last 10 Wins ...
... Last 3 Home Draws... Last 5 Away Losses
You can choose two numbers for the aspects and a yes or no box.
F.e.: Aspect: Home Teams Last Draw: 1 - 5 ; yes
This means the Home Team had their last draw in the last 1-5 games
If you choose "no", in this case it would mean, the home team has not played draw in their last 5 games.
Avaible Leagues in the tool with historical odds at least back to 07/08
England 1 + 2 + 3 + 4, Germany 1 + 2, Spain 1 + 2, Italy 1 + 2, France 1 + 2, Portugal, Turkey, Greece, Russia, Poland, Netherlands, Scotland, Czech Rep., Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finnland
Champions League, Europa Legue, Cup Tournaments, Friendleys and so on can not be analysed with the tool yet.
All past statistics are based on the odds with the highest volume for back odds of the big betting exchange. So in the past it was always easy to get the odds as the programm has choosen it or even better ones.
Be aware that all listed Yields are before commision!
Okay... now I have allready found some systems which made profit in the past years and this season so far. All system have a strategy behind it and are not just randomly choosen aspects combined so long until positive results coming out...Of course this is no guarantee for future profits but I am very optimistical about that
Im planing to write it down like this:
(League(s) --- System ID --- Score(s) to back )
All --- #014 --- 1-1
(Yield in Year ... first of july to first of july)
Yield 06-09: 55 % in 832 Games
Yield 07-09: 63 % in 545 Games
Yield 08-09: 51 % in 289 Games
Yield 09-10: 59 % in 134 Games so far
Pick(s) this week:
Team 1 - Team 2 @ 11.5 to win 99.75 (after commision)
Team 3 - Team 4 @ 14.0 to win 123.50 (after commision)
...
( Yield 07-09: Average Yield in seasons 07/08 and 08/09 (1.7.2007 - 1.7.2009) in ... games.
Yield 09-10: Average Yield in this season 09/10 (all games since 1.7.2009) in ... games. )
In general the odds will be added on the play day and will not be included in the first post of picks for a week.
For the record tracking one unit is 10 € / $ / £. Some system are played with a double unit oder just a half. This will always be mentioned.
If more than one system puts out the same pick I will play the pick twice (or even more). If its the same score to back and the same system ID but f.e. #004b then its not a second play.
-------
Most of the systems I created so far are still in working progress. Since I surely will try to improve them, so they might be changes in the numbers.
Last weekend I had the first picks of some systems. Most of the "this season yield" numbers for 0-0 systems are incorrect because they included BB Ankaraspor which is a suspended team and the programm stated all the plays as 0-0 with the average 0-0 odd.
This ist just for example so its not in the form as mentioned above and have no odds.
Score to back - Yield 07-09 - Yield this Season
Teams - real result
2-0 --- 153 % - 205 %
Nürnberg vs Leverkusen 3-2
Kladno vs Sparta Prag 0-1
Falkirk vs Celtic 0-2
2-0 / 0-0 --- 72 / 60 - 64 / 40 %
Banik Ostrava - Jablonec 4-1
2-1 --- 33 % / 73 %
Nürnberg vs Leverkusen 3-2
Kladno vs Sparta Prag 0-1
2-1 ---- 57 % / 80 %
Kaiserslautern vs FSV Frankfurt 1-1
Legia Warschau vs wodzislaw 0-1
benfica lissabon - fc ferreira 3-1
2-1 --- 42 % / 14 %
Exeter - Oldham 1-1
2-1 ---- 74 / 50 %
Cadiz - Albacette 4-3
0-0 ---- 44 % / 37 %
Laval vs Metz 3-3
Lautern vs Frankfurt 1-1
roma vs milan 0-0
benfica - ferreira 3-1
0-0 ---- 101 % / 96 %
Werder vs Stuttgart 2-2
0-0 58 % / 24 %
Roma Milan 0-0
0-0 --- 84 % - 144 %
Guingamp - Nimes 0-0
0-0 --- 64 % --- 176 %
Ankaragucu - Gaziantepspor 0-0
0-0 --- 119 - 142 %
Wolfsburg - vs Bochum 4-1
0-0 ---- 79 % - 82 %
Belenenses - Sporting Lissabon 0-4
So this were 4 correct 0-0 picks in 21 games. Lets give it an average odd of 11 after com and all plays at 10 € this would have been a payout around 400 € with a stake 210 €.
Lets start with the picks for this week in the next post.
If you have any questions please ask here or write me a pm.
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Originally Posted by lovekamina
(+ 167.20 € after 5 % com)
so her help for using the software is out of question. there are only two possibilities - or you keep posting the picks or me using google translate 
