[Smogs]

Going for two picks this weekend, immediate fade material after my recent run

Burnley/Pompey - Burnley WIN @ 11/10

I hopped on this before the news came out about a points deduction for Pompey and i don't think it changes a thing, although the odds have dropped on a home win a little.
In this matchup i am looking more at the weakness of pompey than any obvious strength of Burnley - although the 6-4-2 home record is very encouraging, especially when even though their form has dipped off, they have still lost only once at home in their last 6. That came to Chelsea and what we know we will get from the home side is fight, something that Portsmouth will struggle with.
Pompey not only have 2 points from a possible 18, they have also lost 10 of 13 away games. 2 goals in their last 6 away also fill me with confidence as Burnley are very strong defensively at home.
This is an obvious public pick but f*ck it, i'm still in profit on the year.

Brighton/Exeter - Brighton @ 10/11

God i love a contrarian and situational play, and this fits right in line with it.
The line just looks wrong, this should be closer to 11/10 and i think that this line is not a result of their recent win at Charlton and draw at Leeds, but more a realisation that those shock results Exeter were pulling off before have dried up completely.
Losing at home to Stockport, Carlisle and Yeovil also on the road, i just don't know what to think when you then see them draw at the MK Dons and at home to Southampton.
This should be left alone but i'm too stubborn

Brighton have one thing going for them, goalscorers....Murray and Forster are playing well and Poyet has made up with the latter.
Exeter's 11 defeats on the road looks good against Brighton's 10 home defeats, but there is a resoluteness to Brighton.
Exeter are slipping badly and while one is sinking, Brighton are pulling away from the trouble and mid table is beckoning.

I've already played both, and daren't play a third game 'cos i like the idea of being in profit on the year, and it will probably lose

Have a good weekend guys, Villa/United will get some attention from me on Sunday


Let's kill it

[theplagy]

Smogs, good luck on those. Let me know what do you think of Bolton, Watford and Birmingham.

Birmingham looks pretty solid I think,

[RedDevil11]

Like the Burnley pick and had them as well before the admin news....Birmingham is my other big play as Wigan are absolutely woeful...saw them play against Bolton and thought they couldn't be any worse, then watched them against the Spurs and they proved me wrong. I swear their pitch is slightlier better than them.

As for the Cup game, I'm going to be a homer and say United wins 1-0 or 2-0. Would like to see Fergie go with 4-4-2 with Rooney and Berba up front, but we all know he'll use the 4-5-1 with Park and Valencia on the wings. With Vidic in the back with Brown (as I doubt they start Evans), we'll be a lot tighter at the back. My only concern would be the huge pitch at Wembley which may help Villa's long ball style. I know it's the mickey mouse cup, but since we're already out of the FA Cup, I think Fergie will want this one and it will be a good run in for the stretch. Sure the Villans have had some success against us this year, but we've owned this team. We were a bit unlucky at Villa Park after Nani saw an early red, but we still took it to them down a man. When the pressure is on in big matches United usually come through and Rooney finally gets his chance to shine at Wembley.

[whatsgood5]

Good luck Smog!

[Smogs]

Like the Burnley pick and had them as well before the admin news....Birmingham is my other big play as Wigan are absolutely woeful...saw them play against Bolton and thought they couldn't be any worse, then watched them against the Spurs and they proved me wrong. I swear their pitch is slightlier better than them.

As for the Cup game, I'm going to be a homer and say United wins 1-0 or 2-0. Would like to see Fergie go with 4-4-2 with Rooney and Berba up front, but we all know he'll use the 4-5-1 with Park and Valencia on the wings. With Vidic in the back with Brown (as I doubt they start Evans), we'll be a lot tighter at the back. My only concern would be the huge pitch at Wembley which may help Villa's long ball style. I know it's the mickey mouse cup, but since we're already out of the FA Cup, I think Fergie will want this one and it will be a good run in for the stretch. Sure the Villans have had some success against us this year, but we've owned this team. We were a bit unlucky at Villa Park after Nani saw an early red, but we still took it to them down a man. When the pressure is on in big matches United usually come through and Rooney finally gets his chance to shine at Wembley.

come on dude, villa don't play long ball - this is a common misconception and it's all because of Wenger having a divvy fit.

I think it goes over tbh, maybe 2-1 either way

[Smogs]

Smogs, good luck on those. Let me know what do you think of Bolton, Watford and Birmingham.

Birmingham looks pretty solid I think,

Yeh, i like Birmingham, and at 50/50 chance i like it a lot. Bolton under 2.5 easy peezy, watford over 2.5 but i don't have an opinion on the sides, maybe Newcastle DNB but yeh dam, Bolton unders is good for me, but the odds will be shocking i reckon

*Edit - just saw the under at Bolton is 4/5 - dam that is tasty

[RedDevil11]

come on dude, villa don't play long ball - this is a common misconception and it's all because of Wenger having a divvy fit.

I think it goes over tbh, maybe 2-1 either way

LOL...ok so maybe Wenger is still looking for his pie charts and graphs to back it up.

good luck with your picks

[Smogs]

LOL...ok so maybe Wenger is still looking for his pie charts and graphs to back it up.

good luck with your picks

I love his rants, no basis at all, the Porto indirect freekick was priceless, all he could do was flail his arms and whinge

[theplagy]

that dumbshit fabianski cost me my under >.>

[Wilforth]

BOL Smogs.

[Sportslover]

Good luck Smogs, I like your Burnley play and I'll be on the same side for this one.

Also like Birmingham in the EPL this weekend.

In the Championship I am leaning towards Barnsley, Sheffield United -1 and Newcastle United.

[Smogs]

Come on Burnley - give me the clean sweep

[JOHON8]

I took advantage of the increased odds for Burnley ML at half time, COME ON BURNLEY!!!

[JOHON8]

what is Burnley doing... the 2nd penalty they give away, horrible defending. oh well on to the next games.

what a shame Pompey got 9 points deducted because after this game they deserve to stay in the EPL more than Burnley do. But pretty likely they are both out, especially Burnley, they can't beat the worst team in the league at home ...lol

[theplagy]

oh well, even day is better than a losing day

[Smogs]

Not too bad all round, bit of a shame though - I thought Pompey were dead