Smogs One Sunday Pick
A chance to have a 100% day today, which will be a change
Fulham V Birmingham - Under 0.75 Goals in the First Half @ +105 - 0.8 Units
I looked at this and thought that while there is a chance the game goes over, with a European hangover, lazy defending etc to worry about; the reality is that Fulham have shown over the season that there is no angle to bet against them after a Thursday game.
The draw becomes a little more likely but what caught my attention was that head to head this game traditionally has very few goals in it.
Despite the season away for Birmingham, there is no suggestion that they, or Fulham will get routed in this or see a high scoring game at all.
With the over/under set at 0.75 for the first half i am thinking that worst case scenario, we see one goal in the half, meaning a half loss of stake.
I am more than happy to risk that when the odds are above even and the trends support a cagey encounter.
Fulham have 4 home goals and 6 in total from their last 6 at home, and just 2 in their last 6. Overall they have seen just 26 goals in the first half from 26 games - and 13 from 13 home games to keep things easy.
Birmingham have seen 7 goals after 45 minutes in their last 6 road games, and 5 overall in their last 6.
For the season they have seen 20 in 25 matches and 14 from 12 away games.
More overs come from Brummie away games actually but the form table for half time shows that neither side has been prolific recently.
Fulham have lost 2 of their 3 scorers for a large part of the season - Johnson and Dempsey, while Birmingham don't have injuries to worry about, just goals as they have dried up as Lee Bowyer remains top scorer on 5.
3 half time goals between them in their last 6 apiece makes me think i've found value, as the defences on both teams have stayed in good form, with the strikers letting each team down.
I have a habit of losing higher stakes bets lately but this is a different way of saying 0-0 at half time is my bet
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