02-09-10, 11:28 AM
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#1
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One dog play - Tuesday
This is a special play and that's why I'm posting a special thread for it. I've been considering this for a while and after some research, I'm convinced West Brom are not likely to win today. I'm therefore going with these 2 picks on the same game:
Scunthorpe +600 1u
West Brom/Scunthorpe draw +285 1u
Yes, West Brom may be 3-0-0 in the L3 meetings between the 2 sides but I'm not deterred. Here are my reasons for this play:
1) Giant-killer potential: Newcastle, the No. 1 team in the league, have only 3 losses all season. Scunthorpe is among the only 3 teams to have beaten Newcastle, which establishes their giant-killer potential.
2) Streak-limit rule: In their 29-game stretch this season, only once has West Brom won 4 games in a row. They're now 3-0-0 in their L3, which means they're at the tail end of their win-streak. If we assume that their "normal" win-streak limit is 3 games, then they're not winning today's game.
3) Comparative rule: One of West Brom's 4 home losses was against Crystal Palace. Scunthorpe have beaten Crystal Palace on the road by a 4-0 margin, which means beating West Brom on the road isn't beyond them.
4) Parlay crasher rule: On any given day, there's always a result that is bound to crash a lot of parlays. Looking at the soccer board today, I believe these 3 teams will dominate a lot of parlays: Manchester City, West Brom and Cardiff. A disappointing result from at least one of those 3 will help the books a great deal. And as the saying goes - "the books never lose". I'm picking West Brom as my parlay-crasher candidate.
Last edited by Wilforth; 02-09-10 at 11:31 AM.
Reason: Typo
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02-09-10, 11:41 AM
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#2
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Dam wil - good write up, you have me convinced, i will watch that score come in and root for you on it
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02-09-10, 11:48 AM
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#3
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How about Coventry vs Nott. Forest? +250
I see an upset in this game. I think that Coventry can win this game at home or at least tie it.
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02-09-10, 11:49 AM
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#4
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Smogs,
I refuse to be burnt by those picks that look like auto picks. I strongly believe that a 3-teamer of Man City/West Brom/Cardiff won't cash today. West Brom looks so easy and you know how such games end. All it'll take is 1 or 2 penalties to Scunthorpe and 1 or 2 red cards to West Brom and the deal is done!
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02-09-10, 11:52 AM
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#5
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I hate when a game looks too easy.
GL Wil .. cash em !!
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02-09-10, 11:52 AM
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#6
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I'm seeing +850/+340
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02-09-10, 11:55 AM
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#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyno
How about Coventry vs Nott. Forest? +250
I see an upset in this game. I think that Coventry can win this game at home or at least tie it.
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Yes, Conventry has a decent chance of pulling the upset, more so that Nott. Forest tend not to play well on the road against teams in the bottom half of the league. But I think a 1-1 draw is realistic.
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02-09-10, 11:56 AM
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#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smitch124
I'm seeing +850/+340
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Yes, I used Bookmaker odds. You can better lines at other books.
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02-09-10, 11:59 AM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Yes, Conventry has a decent chance of pulling the upset, more so that Nott. Forest tend not to play well on the road against teams in the bottom half of the league. But I think a 1-1 draw is realistic.
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Yeah exactly what I was thinking. On the other hand, Coventry tend to play well against teams in the upper half of the league. I like your play against WBA, I have it as +700 but not sure if I should pull the trigger on it yet. Maybe +1 @ +125.
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02-09-10, 12:08 PM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyno
Yeah exactly what I was thinking. On the other hand, Coventry tend to play well against teams in the upper half of the league. I like your play against WBA, I have it as +700 but not sure if I should pull the trigger on it yet. Maybe +1 @ +125.
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Mr. Tonyno,
If I were you, I'd do 2 plays on that game: Conventry ML and draw
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02-09-10, 12:11 PM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Mr. Tonyno,
If I were you, I'd do 2 plays on that game: Conventry ML and draw
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No need for the formality between us Wilforth.
Thanks for the suggestion, that makes perfect sense. I am still working on my plays for today.
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02-09-10, 12:21 PM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyno
No need for the formality between us Wilforth.
Thanks for the suggestion, that makes perfect sense. I am still working on my plays for today.
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I'm tailing you on Conventry ML and draw. Look at this: Nott. Forest won on the road at West Brom and Swansea but drew at Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday and Reading and lost at Derby! To help matters here, Nott. Forest have won only 4 of their 14 road games!
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02-09-10, 12:32 PM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyno
How about Coventry vs Nott. Forest? +250
I see an upset in this game. I think that Coventry can win this game at home or at least tie it.
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One more note on this game: Nott. Forest have beaten Conventry already this season. Since the 1991/92 season, Nott. Forest haven't beaten Conventry twice in the same season! One more reason why the upset or a draw looks good.
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02-09-10, 12:38 PM
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#14
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im tailing your dog plays also  posted rest of my plays today also on thread some copa lib that i like NHL will be up on SS later or in a little bit since im free right now |
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02-09-10, 12:57 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demize21
im tailing your dog plays also posted rest of my plays today also on thread some copa lib that i like NHL will be up on SS later or in a little bit since im free right now |
I'll check them up and tail them. I know you're the master of the NHL.
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02-09-10, 01:01 PM
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#16
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These line movements on Bookmaker have me more convinced about these plays:
1) Scunthorpe ML went from +600 to +700
2) The draw went from +285 to +320
The money is pouring on West Brom as the public see it as an "easy" play. We'll see how it goes.
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02-09-10, 01:04 PM
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#17
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Being a fan of West Brom i cant see Scunthorpe winning tonight.
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02-09-10, 01:04 PM
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#18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demize21
im tailing your dog plays also posted rest of my plays today also on thread some copa lib that i like NHL will be up on SS later or in a little bit since im free right now |
I'm also going to look out for your nhl
Loving coventry the more it is discussed on here - i was on derby to upset forest and this looks another of those situations
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02-09-10, 01:17 PM
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#19
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Wilforth after reading your writeup and looking up stats and figures you draw play makes the most sense to me.. but what the hell... 100 on both if one cashes im up either way. lets get it!  |
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02-09-10, 01:19 PM
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#20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smogs
I'm also going to look out for your nhl
Loving coventry the more it is discussed on here - i was on derby to upset forest and this looks another of those situations |
Smogs,
Four things make the Conventry play very compelling:
1) Nott. Forest have beaten Conventry already this season and for the past 17 seasons, Nott. Forest haven't beaten Conventry twice in the same season.
2) Nott. Forest have won a grand total of only 4 games on the road all season.
3) Apart from winning at Peterborough and Plymouth Argyle who are the worst teams in the league, Nott. Forest don't have a road win against any other team in the bottom half of the league. They were held to a draw at Sheffield Wednesday, Reading, Ipswich, and Watford.
4) Conventry have lost only 3 of their 14 home games!!!
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02-09-10, 01:47 PM
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#21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Scunthorpe +600 1u West Brom/Scunthorpe draw +285
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Bold move! I really hope this one cashes. I'm sure that you already knew, but just in case: Marcus Williams and Garry Thompson are out for Scunthorpe. Taking into consideration that Scunthorpe has conceded most away goals in championship, there might be some exiting moments in their defense tonight 
0-1 for Scunthorpe, Gary Hooper scores ugly goal in 64th minute.
Good luck!
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02-09-10, 01:50 PM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Smogs,
Four things make the Conventry play very compelling:
1) Nott. Forest have beaten Conventry already this season and for the past 17 seasons, Nott. Forest haven't beaten Conventry twice in the same season.
2) Nott. Forest have won a grand total of only 4 games on the road all season.
3) Apart from winning at Peterborough and Plymouth Argyle who are the worst teams in the league, Nott. Forest don't have a road win against any other team in the bottom half of the league. They were held to a draw at Sheffield Wednesday, Reading, Ipswich, and Watford.
4) Conventry have lost only 3 of their 14 home games!!!
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Thanks for the great stats. I am on it. Good Luck on your big Dog play.
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02-09-10, 01:55 PM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by w3coyote
Bold move! I really hope this one cashes. I'm sure that you already knew, but just in case: Marcus Williams and Garry Thompson are out for Scunthorpe. Taking into consideration that Scunthorpe has conceded most away goals in championship, there might be some exiting moments in their defense tonight
0-1 for Scunthorpe, Gary Hooper scores ugly goal in 64th minute.
Good luck! |
Yes, both teams are polar opposites of each other which makes this meeting interesting. West Brom have failed to score only once in their L15 games and they've scored 3 or more in 11 of their games this season. On the flip side, Scunthorpe have conceded the most goals on the road. And to make matters worse for Scunthorpe, they'll be missing Williams and Thompson. To add to that, West Brom has a perfect Championship record against Scunthorpe. If you add all that, you'd feel like putting your entire bankroll on West Brom. But we'll see how things will pan out eventually.
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02-09-10, 01:57 PM
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#24
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I like your picks more often than not, but tonight I'm on West Brom.
Scunthorpe did beat Newcastle, but it was a home match and the Magpies were in their worst form of the season at the time, having been winless in the prior 3 matches. Scunthorpe lost 1-3 at home to West Brom a little over a month ago despite Dorrans missing a pk, granted Scunthorpe went down to 9 men. I think the talent gap is just too big and West Brom's passing too good for the Baggies not to win.
Still I wish you good luck on your plays, and I do think Cardiff will screw up the favorite-parlay.
Last edited by turnip; 02-09-10 at 01:58 PM.
Reason: big pricechange
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02-09-10, 01:57 PM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
These line movements on Bookmaker have me more convinced about these plays:
1) Scunthorpe ML went from +600 to +700
2) The draw went from +285 to +320
The money is pouring on West Brom as the public see it as an "easy" play. We'll see how it goes.
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it went up to +800 
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02-09-10, 03:54 PM
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#26
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not looking good but hoping for a score to make the draw.
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02-09-10, 04:40 PM
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#27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Scunthorpe +600 1u LOSS
West Brom/Scunthorpe draw +285 1u LOSS
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0-2 -2.00
Apologies to those who tailed but I don't regret this one bit. I've personally gained much from such plays.
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02-09-10, 04:44 PM
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#28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyno
How about Coventry vs Nott. Forest? +250
I see an upset in this game. I think that Coventry can win this game at home or at least tie it.
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You were absolutely right about that!
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02-09-10, 04:46 PM
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#29
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np wilforth.. i gonna hit fulham and coventry which will actually put me up +100 over what i lost on those 2.
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02-09-10, 05:28 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
You were absolutely right about that!
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Thank You...It was 4-0 day for me...I like your Watford pick...
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02-09-10, 05:40 PM
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#31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
I'll check them up and tail them. I know you're the master of the NHL.
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thanks bro, not a bad day so far POD in NHL is BUF i took on ML -1 & -1.5 also rest of them are posted as of now
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02-09-10, 05:44 PM
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#32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smogs
I'm also going to look out for your nhl
Loving coventry the more it is discussed on here - i was on derby to upset forest and this looks another of those situations |
soccer & NHL are my read and butter i though i do play a lot of games as you all know i tend to do well at the end of the night
BOL to all
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02-09-10, 05:52 PM
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#33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyno
Thank You...It was 4-0 day for me...I like your Watford pick...
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Because of you, I also did Conventry. So I got Watford and Conventry, which puts me up for the day. Thanks.
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02-09-10, 07:05 PM
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#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Because of you, I also did Conventry. So I got Watford and Conventry, which puts me up for the day. Thanks.
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I just pointed it out, you dug up the stats. Thanks. Keep up the good work.
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