[Smogs]

Got totally shafted on Wednesday when the under was looking rosy until 3 goals in 5 minutes blew my bet up. Had to take a break after that and realised i had far too much on that game.

Onto Saturday and i am making these bets with the Superbowl in mind, i took out all the profit you will see on my spreadsheet and i cannot re-deposit because i'm a student and it jeopardises my student overdraft lol.

I can only play with what i have left and i envisage placing 5 units on the SB, so far i only have 3 Units in the account - so let's build it back up!!!

Grenoble Vs Auxerre - Auxerre -0.25 @ Evens

To be honest, i can't understand the price here, i would be expecting closer to 4/5 and that is either a trap or that the books are wary to have an away fav so lowly priced.
Auxerre are certainly in excellent form, they have both solid overall form as well as recent form. They have won 3 of their last 4 and have just 2 defeats in their last 10, none in their last 7.
During this span, they have won their last 2 on the road and have just one away defeat in their last 8 - winning 4. That one defeat was away to PSG which is no terrible thing. they have beaten Marseille away and very poor Nice, who are also fighting for survival.
There is talk that Ljuboja is sh*t and draining away any quality in Grenoble's team and with just 12 goals all season, and 15 conceded in their last 6; i expect this to be about 1-0 or 2-0.
I believe Auxerre to get at least 1, making a draw the worst scenario in my view, so taking the -0.25 covers this.
My only belief for the price being so high is Auxerre injuries which number 3/4 first teamers.
Grenoble are terrible and have shown nothing to why they should have any chance here, except the ineptitude of Auxerre or a 0-0 draw.

I am happy to place a full unit on this

[Smogs]

Hereford PK Vs Torquay

I think DNB on the home side here is a good value bet for a team that are notoriously very strong at home, and it has been this home form that has kept them afloat this season.
They have managed to win 6 of their 12 home games this season and they are facing a Torquay side who are very poor on the road.
They have not won in any of their last 10 games on the road but have been managed to get 6 draws from them.
They are in pretty weak form in total, just 4 wins in their last 15 and 1 win on the road all season.
Hereford have just 2 home defeats this year and 1 was to Notts County.

from a situational viewpoint, this also fits into Hereford's favour, as i think with both in mid table, Torquay are going to be happy, 7 points off the bottom 2 and i don't think that gap will be closed tomorrow.
I believe this to be the time of the season when simple 2-0 home wins become the norm for these teams and i don't see this being an away win, so the insurance at a healthy price is helpful.

Hereford PK @ 8/11 - Bet365

[Smogs]

There may be a bet on Scunthorpe - the situation demands a play on them. Palace cannot even afford the train up to Scunny

[tonyno]

There may be a bet on Scunthorpe - the situation demands a play on them. Palace cannot even afford the train up to Scunny

I am having a good week so far and I am hoping to keep it up. Here are my picks for Saturday:
·Bochum vs Leverkusen Leverkusen to win
·Stoke vs Blackburn Under 2.5
·Valencia vs Valladolid Valencia to win
·Real M. vs Espanyol Over 2.5

It is a busy Saturday for me but I limited my picks to the one that I am most confident about. I like Bayern and Schalke to win and also as you pointed out Scunthorpe for a win at home.

[spartangreen]

Good luck Smogs

[Smogs]

I am having a good week so far and I am hoping to keep it up. Here are my picks for Saturday:
·Bochum vs Leverkusen Leverkusen to win
·Stoke vs Blackburn Under 2.5
·Valencia vs Valladolid Valencia to win
·Real M. vs Espanyol Over 2.5

It is a busy Saturday for me but I limited my picks to the one that I am most confident about. I like Bayern and Schalke to win and also as you pointed out Scunthorpe for a win at home.

When do Leverkusen start dropping points dude, this looks like a let down situation?

[Gracchus]

With you on Leverkusen.
The Valencian Bats, having a poor showing their two road games, will be looking to make up lost ground at home, and against a weak Valladolid side is a good place to start.

Good Luck

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck Smogs. I hate France Ligue 1 outside of watching to see if Lille can get back into the OVER runs again.

[theplagy]

pompy +2.25 1 unit
Tottenham draw +220 .5 unit
everton +.5 1 unit
fulham under 2.5 -120 3 unit

BOL Smogs

[Smogs]

Bolton -0.25 Vs Fulham @ 1.875 - Bet365

Have to go for this one as the odds are going down on it and Fulham just do not instil any confidence at the moment.
They beat Pompey yes, but scraped by in that game, and showed that they have nothing offensively - to back up an already poor away record and recent form that has seen them lose 5 of their last 6 and score just 4 goals in that period, conceding 11.

The team that lost 3-2 to Stoke was much stronger and they now look a shell of that team.
No Dempsey/Johnson to name just two and Okaka managed to miss a sitter midweek.

Bolton on the other hand have done what we expect recently, they have lost against the better teams and put away Burnley.
I do think Coyle will turn the Reebok into a strong place and for that to happen they need to beat Fulham, who have an away record of 1-4-7.

Bolton at home are quite weak and i have taken insurance but they are capable of scoring goals, especially on a team who have been leaking them for fun.

[Smogs]

Doing something i didn't want to do this year but i have had to as i think it offers a good return and neither will team in my opinion SHOULD lose.

A Double - Scunthorpe and West Ham PK @ 2.65 - Half Unit

I think both these teams are in good spots not to lose, Scunthorpe are playing Palace who have such dire financial issues that they cannot afford the train up to Scunny, and Burnley have been on a terrible run that has seen them drop into the bottom 3.
Even with their solid home form i do not see them picking themselves up after Chelsea and Burnley to win here.
Palace have been in good form but they are coming up against Scunny who have won their last 2 and have Hooper and Hayes on good form, i think both these games finish 1-0 respectively

[pokerpro44]

im on bolton as well.

[Smogs]

Down a little but it all rests on Auxerre - not exactly the team i would pin my weekend profit on but bolton were useless so that's how it is

[theplagy]

pompy +2.25 1 unit
Tottenham draw +220 .5 unit
everton +.5 1 unit
fulham under 2.5 -120 3 unit

BOL Smogs

2-2
+2.9 unit

[tonyno]

I am having a good week so far and I am hoping to keep it up. Here are my picks for Saturday:
·Bochum vs Leverkusen Leverkusen to win LOSS
·Stoke vs Blackburn Under 2.5 LOSS
·Valencia vs Valladolid Valencia to win WIN
·Real M. vs Espanyol Over 2.5 WIN

It is a busy Saturday for me but I limited my picks to the one that I am most confident about. I like Bayern and Schalke to win and also as you pointed out Scunthorpe for a win at home.

2-2 day...not soo good

[Smogs]

me neither, baaaaad day