[Smogs]

I have one main pick for today and i am still thinking of whether to bet on that horrible matchup between Sunderland and Stoke.

For now though i have a bet i like quite a bit and it has the advantage of siding with the bookies, who will take a mini pounding if Rochdale win tonight.

Bury +0.25 @ 1.775 (Bet365) Vs Rochdale

The odds all week for this game were 7/4 and 6/4 respectively. Now Rochdale are clear favourites for this match but i don't think they grab the win that ensures local bragging rights and the red carpet to League One.
This is a fierce derby an is on SkySports tonight, and one thing i have learnt from watching Rochdale over the years is that they are terrible on TV. They have not won on TV since 2008 and in the mean time they have lost to the likes of Darlington,Gillingham and Luton. All whilst playing atrociously.

They have a good recent record at Bury but here is what i don't think people realise, they haven't won their for 3 years - coincidentally, as both teams have got better.
They used to be so inconsistent but now that they are both good teams, they have both learnt to beat each other at their respective home grounds.
Last year Bury beat Dale 2-1 and the year before it was 1-1.

Don't get me wrong, this will be tight. Between them, we have just 5 defeats in their last 39 games, but Bury have been winning crucial home games - 5 of their last 6, whilst Dale have drawn 2 of their last 3 away.

I think that the draw is the most likely, but if i had to pick a side it would be Bury, as they can almost match Dale for goals scored, and have home advantage

Half Unit on Bury +0.25

[Karayilan9]

What do you think of the Over? I liked the over in this game

[Smogs]

This game hasn't gone over 3 goals since at least 1993.

It is traditionally tight an both have very good defences at the moment, bit too risky imo but it is better than the under. I see a 2-1 Bury type game or 1-1, which is why i think it's a bit close to call the over

[Karayilan9]

This game hasn't gone over 3 goals since at least 1993.

It is traditionally tight an both have very good defences at the moment, bit too risky imo but it is better than the under. I see a 2-1 Bury type game or 1-1, which is why i think it's a bit close to call the over

Where did you find that stat? I've got their H2H going back to 2003 as 9 Overs 6 Unders, last 6 games H2H at Bury are 4 Over 2 Under.

Over 2.5 odds are +110

[Smogs]

Where did you find that stat? I've got their H2H going back to 2003 as 9 Overs 6 Unders, last 6 games H2H at Bury are 4 Over 2 Under.

Over 2.5 odds are +110

you have it right but what i meant is that since 1993 at Bury there hasn't been a game OVER 3 goals, there have been a fair few 2-1's etc but that suggests these games are really tight. i don't want it to be 1-1 in the 75th minute and fretting over another goal.

To be fair though, at +110, the odds justify a bet on it

[Spaceviews]

I took the over(2.5) & Bury(pk). Really need this one. Got my fingers crossed.Cheers. Break a leg!!

[Karayilan9]

you have it right but what i meant is that since 1993 at Bury there hasn't been a game OVER 3 goals, there have been a fair few 2-1's etc but that suggests these games are really tight. i don't want it to be 1-1 in the 75th minute and fretting over another goal.

To be fair though, at +110, the odds justify a bet on it

Oh I see, BOL today Smogzy

[Smogs]

This game is so bad - pitch is terrible and so are the players. The bet is looking good though

[tonyno]

Bury 1-0
Great Pick Smogs...You know your stuff. Congrats

[Smogs]

Bury 1-0
Great Pick Smogs...You know your stuff. Congrats

Thanks tony - i'm buzzing right now, 60% ytd

[tonyno]

That's impressive..Keep up the good work. I admire your capping skills and your writeups.

[Phillth]

good work

[Smogs]

thank you guys

[Karayilan9]

Good call

[Smogs]

Great call Smogs...BOL today if you have any plays Keep it up!

dude, i need to follow your NBA, you are cleaning up!

Cheers Kara - we both cash tonight