[Smogs]

I think we have a good opportunity for West Ham to win at home to Blackburn today.

West Ham haven't been in the best of form, and they haven't been playing particularly well, bit i think there are some factors that help them achieve value status for this game.
They welcome back Carlton Cole and H Ilunga, and i belive it will be Cole i particular who makes the impact.
He has 7 goals in 14 games this season and will cause all sorts of problems for a team that has an awful record here/ They have lost their last 11 visits to the Boleyn and all of these have resulted in plenty of goals.
This will not bode well for Blackburn who are awful on the road anyway, allowing 28 goals and scoring just 8.
They have just 5 points on the road and are playing a team who are building on recent draws and have been doing well at home despite their poor form.
3 wins from their last 6 at home, and draws against Arsenal and Chelsea within their last 8 at home give me real confidence here.

1 unit on West Ham @ 11/10 Bet365

[TWEETS]

Always love your plays Smogs, never seems like your throwing darts at a board, just 1 or 2 solid picks

[Smogs]

Thanks guys, always appreciate feedback on picks

[Parkinho]

I've left this game so far but have to admit that your logic is sound. In my own mind I just can't quite reconcile the imbalance between Blackburn's apparent form and West Ham's sporadic form to the extent that I have put money on it at this stage. For some reason I am just feeling pretty conservative this weekend - probably to the detriment of my bottom line. Good luck!

[mihaita666]

smogs, what do you think og the hull-wolves match ?

[Toronto-boy]

LOLZ check out my poster..

[Wilforth]

Great pick, especially considering the relegation-fight angle of it.

[tonyno]

I think we have a good opportunity for West Ham to win at home to Blackburn today.

West Ham haven't been in the best of form, and they haven't been playing particularly well, bit i think there are some factors that help them achieve value status for this game.
They welcome back Carlton Cole and H Ilunga, and i belive it will be Cole i particular who makes the impact.
He has 7 goals in 14 games this season and will cause all sorts of problems for a team that has an awful record here/ They have lost their last 11 visits to the Boleyn and all of these have resulted in plenty of goals.
This will not bode well for Blackburn who are awful on the road anyway, allowing 28 goals and scoring just 8.
They have just 5 points on the road and are playing a team who are building on recent draws and have been doing well at home despite their poor form.
3 wins from their last 6 at home, and draws against Arsenal and Chelsea within their last 8 at home give me real confidence here.

1 unit on West Ham @ 11/10 Bet365

I like your pick. Westham has beaten Blackburn in their last home games and they need this win to avoid the relegation zone and also having Cole back will give them a boost. Good Luck

[Smogs]

smogs, what do you think og the hull-wolves match ?

I think that is best left alone - it could be 0-0 or 2-0 Hull, i don't think Wolves have a chance of winning it though, they are in poor form right now and will take a draw. I don't think there is any value in it

Great pick, especially considering the relegation-fight angle of it.

Thanks wil - i think this offers a very good +ev chance for a win and a lot of factors make this good value

[Euphoria38]

West Ham gotcha book it.

[Jimmy0607]

Good luck

[Smogs]

There's something not quite right with this Derby Vs Forest Game

This is the Championship, teams do not win easy that often and the pricing of of Forest as 10/11 favourites on the road is just of no value at all.

For wise yes, they should be favourites and they do have the stronger squad, but this is a fierce local derby. There is a reason why Forest have not won at Pride Park/Baseball Ground since 1994. Derby will raise their game for this, they have NOTHING to fight for this season and everyone, an i mean everyone is on Forest.
There is talk of Clough under pressure (although he will stay whatever the result) and i think that out of a dour season they can grab something here.

Because this is a value bet it receives just half a unit but i think the draw is value also.

I make the draw 50/50 because of the nature of these games so for Derby not to lose i am going:

Derby +0.5 @ 1.90 Bet365

Keep stakes low on this whichever way you play, derbies are something different

[Smogs]

Two final picks for me until perhaps a little dabble on Newcastle in the 5:15 PM GMT game

For now though i have locked in Notts County and Liverpool

Notts County Vs Barnet

This season it's hard to get an acurate take on Notts County, they have a very good goal scorer in Lee Hughes and good players to back him up such as Luke Rogers. What this team do well is impact - fast an explosive attacks that are highlighted by the 50 goals they have this season.
At home i can't seem to get my head around the fact they have won just 6 of 11 home games, yet have a +18 Gd with 27 scored and 9 conceded. This suggests the game will either be a blowout or a 1-1 draw.
What makes me so confident is that Barnet have scored just 2 away goals in their last 6, conceding 16. They miss Ismail Yakubu who is their best - and probably only defender.
County's recent home form is average but for wise overall they have won 4/6 and scored 15 in the process.
Another strong home side - Aldershot, beat Barnet 4-0 last week and that leads me to suggest at least 4-0 today.

I am splitting my bets up for this one - 0.75 Units on Notts County-1 @ 1.725 and 0.25 Units on Notts County -2 @ 3.30

[Smogs]

Now for the one that will have you shaking your heads.....

Liverpool to beat http://www.stats.betradar.com/statis...atchid=1062699Bolton on the -1 handicap @ 1.65 (0.75 Units) and -1.5 @ 6/5 (0.25 Units)

Liverpool are sucking in so much public money and the Bookies are getting rich off it, but we have to remember that Liverpool have won 5 of their last 10 and 7 of their 11 home games.
Bolton on the other hand have had 2 wins in their last 10 an lost 4 of their last 6 on the road. They enter Anfield not having even scored here since 2003, and conceding 19 goals on the road this season. Liverpool may not be playing well, but they have conceded just 3 goals in their last 6, and just one in their last 3 at home.
They limited Spurs to perhaps one or two chances and i think that with Bolton having scored 7 and conceding 15 in their last 6 away matches, including 5 at Villa and 4 at Arsenal, this bet is perhaps not as badly valued as first thought.

We shall see

[Capper]

I agree with the approach of taking positions on a few games rather than trying to get action on as many as possible. If you know what to look for there are always few games that will stick out.

30-01-2010

English League Two
Notts County (-1) vs Barnet
Odds: 1.70-1,75

"9 losses in 12 away games for Barnet this season, and now facing Notts that seem to have shaped up lately. -1 seems a good play with reasonable security since Notts are very likely to win this afternoon. Barnet will have to try and keep it tight, but so far this season they have conceded a great deal on the road. I agree with previous posters that this is a strong position."

[Smogs]

Thanks for the input capper

[Smogs]

GET IN!!!! Rob Hulse

[Rixsaw]

I have Barnsley ML. I couldn't resist the +275. One play I really like today is Napoli -120 against Genoa. Good luck today bro.

[Smogs]

Another good day, this is amazing, i haven't had a losing day in over a week i think

[theplagy]

Another good day, this is amazing, i haven't had a losing day in over a week i think

[Smogs]

Thanks Plagy, and congrats on getting into profit, doesn't matter what your record is if you are making some scrilla!!!

[Parkinho]

Should have read your Forest analysis before betting. Might have put enough doubt in my mind to save me a few quid...

[Smogs]

What's up guys? Watching the Mexican games. Chivas are losing!!! to EST... some team. Monterrey beat Cruz Azul 2-0 earlier. Kind of some upsets going on.

No idea about those games, English and Scottish are my strengths and then big european leagues

Just got in from a night out and missed LB's milwaukee pick - dammit!!