Smogs Villareal/Zaroagoza Total pick
I'm on the over here and i got 4/5 with Bet365 earlier in the week and i think it is now 8/11 at most places.
That doesn't make this a lock or anything, but i feel there is enough value in the play and think that it will end 3-1 Villareal.
Zaragoza have been covering machines on the road in terms of over 2.5 goals, they have cashed that ticket 7/9 times and this is down to how poor their defense is. They have let 37 in overall, and 29 of those on the road. 22 in the last 6 road games compounds this and they are coming up against a Villareal side who are at last showing some form. 3 wins in the last 6 and 10 goals gives me confidence in the bet.
At home the Yellow Submarine have scored 17 in 9, not bad considering, and with their impressive home win record, i think a blowout is the most likely outcome.
Form at home gets even better, 16 goals in their last 6 at home and a 5-1-0 record.
I think that momentum will be strongly in Villareal's favour as they try to bounce back from the 4-1 drubbing last week.
This is my first 2 unit pick of the season, and of my spreadsheet and i am confident that it will cash - but it is a public play, and we know how those go
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Originally Posted by lauritz
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