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  1. #1
    yisman's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Default Value of half goals on the line

    For example, would you rather have -.5 (+125) or PK (-165)?
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  2. #2

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    Depends on the game for me. Usually if its a coinflip game that I have a gut feel on I'll take the Pick. If i really liked the game I'll gladly take the + odds.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    For example, would you rather have -.5 (+125) or PK (-165)?
    Rather "trivial" math: it just depends on your estimates for the 1x2 probabilities
    Slightly more helpful: assuming an "Asian" take of ~2.5% and therefore an implied win probability of 43.5%, the -.5(+125) bet is superior EV if the draw is less likely than 28.5% - which refers to a draw odd of +245.
    If you are offered a lower draw odd, take the PK(-165) - unless you know better.

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