[javon912]

I am trying to figure out whats the chances of a 2 point overdog losing to a 2 point under dog. and im just taking about losing not ties.

[javon912]

No one has a answer for me

[Wilforth]

Perhaps, no one has tracked that to the extent of being able to give you an estimate.

[Phillth]

It doesnt matter. A ML that large should never be played. But if i had to guess id say 1 in 40 shot

[javon912]

thats the same thing i was thinking about a 1/40 shot of the underdog beating the over dog or about 2% chance of it happening

i was wondering because i wqas going to try out asome bets where i put some money on the overdog ML and on the Tie ML and make it to where i make a profit if any of these two happen. Only with teams that have a spread of 2 points though. these bets normally yield like 4%-8%. The EV is positive at a 3% loss rate.
Ex using $1000 we will use a yield rate of 5%

.97($50)+.03(-$1000)= $18.5

48.5-30= 18.5