[Sportslover]

Right, starting a new soccer bets thread here today. Had an old thread here but stopped updating it while I was reviewing and improving my betting strategies. Anyway, now I feel I'm ready to create a new soccer betting thread so hope you all enjoy it.

My own betting rules:

- Only betting on odds that are -110 or better
- Betting the same amount for each game until the end of the season

My record on my old thread was: 7-6-0 or 53.8%

First bet of the new thread:

Preston North End vs Newcastle United
Newcastle United pk and 0.5 -107

Union Berlin vs Kaiserslautern
Under 2.5 -110

Current Record: 0-0-0

When I have time available, I will definately be adding analysis and blog entries for my bets.

Enjoy!

[sockeye]

congrats!

[Sportslover]

Preston North End 0 - 1 Newcastle United
Newcastle pk and 0.5 -107 - Won

Union Berlin 0 - 2 Kaiserslautern
Under 2.5 -110 - Won

Current Record: 2-0-0

Was a good day today, now I'm looking forward to the Champions League tomorrow.

[Sportslover]

congrats!

Thanks Sockeye.

[demize21]

BOL SL its all about the benjis !!!!!

[Sportslover]

BOL SL its all about the benjis !!!!!

Cheers Demize21.
I've added a new pick for tomorrow's Champions League encounter between Barcelona and Inter.

Barcelona vs Inter
Under 2.5 -108

Here is the link to the blog entry that I've written for this matchup: http://sportslover.mysbrforum.com/bl...r-2-5-108.html

And here is a little preview of what I've written in my blog:

"The tactical formations of both teams also give us a hint that this could be a game where both teams might cancel each other out and find it tough to score goals. Inter plays a 4-4-2 formation with a narrow diamond in midfield, meaning they like to build up play through the middle of the field. However, with Barcelona playing with 3 central midfielders, it will be very difficult for Inter to find space to create chances from the middle of the field. Barcelona's wingers are also known for their willingness to come inside and look to link up with the central players so they might also struggle to find space in a congested midfield area."

More picks to follow a little later on after I've finished watching the NFL.

Enjoy!

[Sportslover]

Here are the rest of my picks for today so far:

Barcelona vs Inter
Inter +0.5 +120

Good value on an Inter win or draw here, I feel that a draw is very likely in this match and think there is a slight possibility that Inter can get away with a narrow win so I'm happy to take odds of +120 on one of those two outcomes happening. The Inter defence is familiar with former player Ibrahimovic and with both teams fielding a defensive midfielder behind two central midfielders I think it will be a tight encounter where both teams might cancel each other out. Barcelona might play with a bit of fear because a loss could knock them out of the competition depending on the other result whereas Inter can play with a bit less pressure. I think Inter can get at least a draw in this one.

Rubin Kazan vs Dynamo Kyiv
Rubin Kazan -0.5 +108

I think Rubin Kazan will be looking ahead and thinking, "we have to play away at Inter in our final game", a very tough encounter to look forward to. In order to increase their chances of qualifying, they'll need to go for an outright victory at home to Dynamo Kyiv. If Rubin wins and Barcelona loses, Rubin could seal their qualification tonight. Regardless of the result in the other match, if Rubin wins tonight, they'll only need a draw, at most, to qualify for the knockout stages. Therefore, I expect to see Rubin attacking Dynamo and trying to grab all three points. Although inconsistant in this season's Champions League, Rubin has proven that they can go to Barcelona and defeat the European Champions so they certainly have the ability to beat Dynamo Kyiv, if they play at their best. Dynamo also has the worst defence in this particular Champions League Group so that is another factor that favours Rubin. I think Rubin will win this match.

Livingston vs Albion Rovers
Under 2.5 +106

Interesting match and an interesting price that's been offered for the Under 2.5 line. Albion Rovers is averaging 0.85 goals scored per match and just 0.46 goals conceded per match. Livingston, on the other hand is conceding just 0.85 goals per game while scoring 2.00 goals per match. Albion Rovers has a poor scoring record and both teams have great defensive records so this has the potential to be a low scoring encounter. The only thing that indicates goals being scored is Livington's own goalscoring record but this will be tested against Albion Rovers, who have the best defence in the league. Livingston has won 4 of their last 5 matches whereas Albion Rovers have lost 4 of their last 5 so I believe that Livingston will win the match and keep their opponents scoreless. I think Albion Rovers will struggle to score a goal in this match so I'm confident this will finish Under 2.5 goals.

[Sportslover]

Adding a League One match:

Swindon Town vs Huddersfield Town
Under 2.5 -106

This one might surprise one or two people due to Huddersfield being the top scoring team in the league but if you look a bit deeper then the Under 2.5 looks like a pretty decent bet. Huddersfield has scored 37 goals this season, hitting more than 3 goals on numerous occasions but 28 of those goals have been scored at home. Huddersfield has only scored 9 goals on the road, that's less than the team who is coming second last in the league. They face a tough away game to Swindon Town who themselves are a low scoring team with an average of just 1.19 goals scored per game. Both teams have fairly good defensive records with Huddersfield conceding 1.00 per game and Swindon conceding 1.19 per game. Swindon's defensive record improves to 0.86 conceded per game if you look at their home record. I'm backing the Under 2.5 in this match.

[jw]

Nice coverage ... like the explanations. Will keep an eye on this thread. Thanks.

[Sportslover]

Barcelona 2 - 0 Inter
Under 2.5 -108 - Won
Inter +0.5 +120 - Lost

Rubin Kazan 0 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv
Rubin Kazan -0.5 +108 - Lost

Livingston vs Albion Rovers
Under 2.5 +106 - Won

Swindon Town vs Huddersfield Town
Under 2.5 -106 - Lost

Current Record: 4-3-0

Today's bets:

Bayern Munich vs Macabbi Haifa
Bayern Munich -1.5 -106

I'm predicting a 2-0 win for Bayern here, far superior squad, desperately need to win and I can't see the opposition scoring away from home. Macabbi has failed to score a single goal in their four Champions League group matches so I don't them to trouble the Bayern defence too much in today's encounter. Despite Bayern's poor form, they'll be too good for Macabbi Haifa.

CSKA Moscow vs Wolfsburg
Over 2.5 -105

CSKA must win this game otherwise they will be eliminated from the Champions League so I expect the Russian side to attack their opponents from the very start of the match. They could leave themselves open at the back, combine that with the worst defensive record in the group, conceding 2 goals per game, and you have a recipe for goals in this matchup. If CSKA do leave holes in their defence then you can bet Wolfsburg have the attacking talent to punish them. Wolfsburg's Dzeko, Martins and Grafite are full of goals and their attacking weapons are highly rated throughout Europe.

Wolfsburg's matches have been averaging 2.5 goals per game in this Champions League group and their last 3 games in the German Bundesliga have all finished over 2.5 goals. CSKA had a positive 3-2 away win in the Russian league just 5 days ago against a solid Spartak Moscow team so they are in good goalscoring form. However, the two goals they conceded against Spartak also shows that they are vulnerable defensively, with 7 goals conceded in their last 3 games.

I definately like the Over 2.5 line for this match and I predict this will be one of the highest scoring games in the Champions League today.

[Sportslover]

Adding AC Milan vs Marseille
Over 2.5 -102

I expect that Marseille will come out with a positive approach despite playing away from home here because if they lose and Real Madrid wins, they will fail to qualify for the next stage. Even if Marseille draws, they'll have to hope that Milan loses to Zurich in their final match, an unlikely prospect.

Marseille can certainly have high hopes of breaking down the Milan defence because an inferior Calgliari side managed to score three goals against Milan in the Italian Serie A match at the weekend. Despite conceding three goals in their last league match, Milan managed to win by scoring four, that's what can happen when you field attacking talents such as Pato and Ronaldinho. Marseille have their own attacking weapons, of course, even though they might not be as high profile as their opponent's stars. Niang and Brandao are both explosive players with lightning pace and their pose a real threat to a Milan defence that has played very inconsistantly this season. Under the coaching of Brazilian Leonardo, Milan seem to have lost the famous defensive qualities that are often associated with Italian teams. In fact, Milan's former manager, Ancelotti, has only conceded 1 goal at home in the league for the Chelsea this season so Milan's defence is clearly missing the influence of their former manager.

Marseille might need to attack to grab all three points against Milan but they could leave themselves exposed in defence. Ronaldinho and Pato can certainly punish teams with devastating effect, if their opponents neglect their defensive duties. I expect to see goals in this match and I see good value in the Over 2.5 bet at odds of -102.

[Sportslover]

Nice coverage ... like the explanations. Will keep an eye on this thread. Thanks.

Cheers jw, hope you continue to enjoy my thread.

[Rediscoveryx]

I like the explanations too (and the concept of keeping all your plays in one thread instead of starting seven new threads each week).

However; I think you should also state how many units you've won/lost.

[Sportslover]

I like the explanations too (and the concept of keeping all your plays in one thread instead of starting seven new threads each week).

However; I think you should also state how many units you've won/lost.

Thanks for the advice regarding recording units. I always bet 1 unit per match and 1 unit is equal to 1% of my starting bankroll. I bet the same amount for every play for the whole entire season. I will update the amount of units won/lost after the Champions League matches have finished today.

Thanks again for reminding me to keep track of my units as I had completely forgot about this.

CSKA Moscow vs Wolfsburg is currently 2-1 so the Over 2.5 bet has won in that match.

[Sportslover]

Bayern Munich vs Macabbi Haifa
Bayern -1.5 -106: Won

CSKA Moscow vs Wolfsburg
Over 2.5 -105: Won

AC Milan vs Marseille
Over 2.5 -102: Lost

Current Record: 5-5 -0.22 Units

Today's bets:

Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory
Central Coast -0.5 +107

[Sportslover]

Salernitana vs Gallipoli
Salernitana pk and -0.5 -102

Bochum vs Koln
Bochum pk and -0.5 -110

Dordrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles
Over 2.5 -106

Oostende vs Dender
Under 2.5 -110

Oldhanense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Over 2 -102