[EaglesPhan36]

Lots of matches for this tournament on Friday. Seeing if anyone else has ideas. These are just leans based on research. Would suggest that anyone thinking of playing these matches keep their unit size small.

Slovenia/Malta UNDER 2.5 (+112)
Odds favor the OVER heavily which seems odd in that Malta has not scored in four qualifiers nor have they given up more than 2 goals. Slovenia has 3 goals in 4 matches, 2 coming in the 1st match between these two in march, a 2-0 Slovenia AWAY win. Slovenia's only three points were because of their win over Malta. They'll be thinking they can get another three here and keep some slim hopes alive of keeping up with the top of the group.

Austria/Albania OVER 2.5 (-123)
This would be the one that I would think has the best chance. Austria beat Albania 3-1 when they met in Austria in September. Austria needs to think win here to keep pace with Belarus & Scotland, all of whom have 9 points. 3 of the 4 Austria matches have hit for 3 goals or better. Albania has allowed the most goals in the group, 13 in 5 matches. They've only been shut out once, by the Scots. The only draw back here is their form has been drastically different at home with just two goals scored in two matches on home turf vs. 17 in the others. Still, Albania is hopelessly near the bottom of their group so playing for a draw wouldn't do anything for them. Austria conceded a goal in both away tilts even to Azerbaijan which has just three goals.

[Phillth]

i already played lithuania v. macedonia over 2

[alka07]

gl with your plays no play for me

[BL]

tailed Austria/Albania OVER 2.5 cuz looked very tasty. Nice writeup - thanks a lot!
Let's hope they'll score some more goals

[EaglesPhan36]

Austria-Albania OVER ...Boom shakalakalaka BOOM!


Probably means the other one will not cash. Philith had a good over prospect with Macedonia perhaps for those interested.

[SRBI]

Nice hit with the Alb/Aus over EP!

[Club]

EP, are these your official plays or will you be posting those in your other thread?

[EaglesPhan36]

These were just leans. Nothing official on these today, they would be "action" picks I suppose. Might look at more if I have time.

[andrewaxia]

I like Lithuania PK at home against Macedonia

[Club]

These were just leans. Nothing official on these today, they would be "action" picks I suppose. Might look at more if I have time.

Ok, I'll lay off unless they make it into the official thread. When I play games just for action, it usually doesn't end well. There's always tomorrow. Thanks.

[Bakerdew]

thanks EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Figures the 2nd one hits and I didn't have time to place a wager on that one because my money was tied up with the first one. That was a juicy payoff too at plus odds. Gonna try to research some of the others for this afternoon. Will post any leans if I can!

[EaglesPhan36]

San Marino/Iceland OVER 3.5/4 (-130)
San Marino has lost 6-0, 8-0 & 6-0. Iceland beating them 8-0 at Iceland. Iceland had no problems scoring on the road in their other match, 6-2 over North Ireland.

[EaglesPhan36]

Iceland up 4-0 in the 40th minute. Damn well better find that 5th. Did not expect 3-0 on these, but that's ALRIGHT!

[EaglesPhan36]

Couple on Saturday that look like they have a shot.

Romania/Latvia OVER 2.5/3 (-111)
Romania hosting this one and looking for payback from a 5-1 loss to Latvia on the road. Romania has won at home in this competition three times, 3-0, 3-0 & 2-0. Latvia has 8 goals scored in their last 2.

Azerbaijan/Scotland UNDER 2.5 (-114)
Scots have had three of their four matches play to one goal totals. With Austria drawing on Friday, Scotland can assume the top spot in the group with a win. Would think that means tight defense and looking for one or two goals to win it comfortably.

[EaglesPhan36]

Romania 3-0 in the 65th minute. Under 21 Euro, where have you been all my life? Sheesh. Red card on Latvia as well, so hopefully a 4th goal can be found for the full stakes win!

[EaglesPhan36]

These are a big chunk of the action on Tuesday. Gonna do some homework and post some plays if any look good. Believe 4-1 was the record last time, unexpected as that was.

[SRBI]

Looking forward to the plays EP!@

[EaglesPhan36]

As with last time, these are leans/action picks here that I do like but always advise smaller stakes on these types of competitions or at least realize that anything can happen more-so in these than league matches.

Belarus/Albania OVER 2.5 (-120)
Rematch of the 4-2 Albania win on their home turf in October. Belarus will be looking for all three points here to keep pace with Austria & Scotland who remain ahead of them in the group. Outside of their match with Scotland, all three other group matches have seen at least 3 goals with Belarus scoring 9 and conceding 5. Albania is only ahead of pointless Azerbaijan in the group. They have scored five goals in their last 3, while conceding 9. That includes two straight matches where they have scored multiple goals.

Luxembourg/Italy UNDER 2.5 (+110)
This seems like a good value with the two teams playing to a two goal total in Italy last time out. At home, Luxembourg has conceded one goal in two matches, but have not scored. Italy has struggled on the road, yielding two goals in each match & scoring just one. Their last three matches have all played to two goal totals. These two teams are tied with 4 points each in 3rd in their group. A win is huge for whomever gets it with just three group matches left after this one, but they could play tight and settle for a point.

Israel/Bulgaria OVER 2.5 (-114)
When these two teams met in June, the final as 4-3 Bulgaria winning on the road. Bulgaria is dead last in the group with 4 points, but just three behind Israel. They have conceded a goal in each of their four matches and scored in 3 of 4. Israel is almost identical in those stats, scoring in 3 of 4 and conceding in all four. Take into consideration that Bulgaria scored twice in the 2nd half on Israel last time, playing with a man down with lots of quality chances reported for both sides.

[mew6789]

Nice, tailing you on the Belarus VS Albania game. BOL

[jw]

Thanks for the summary .. saved me some work. Tailing you also on the Belarus Game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Israel-Bulgaria by the way is a Wednesday match which I just realized.

[SRBI]

Albania/Belarus 0-2 at HT. Just need one more goal EP! Since I missed the early play I'll probably tail on one of the others. BOL!

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally got the 3rd one from Alabania.

[jw]

Finally got the 3rd one from Alabania.

Good Call.

[jasonw]

Finally got the 3rd one from Alabania.

tailed on this one. nice.

[SRBI]

Nice hit EP

[EaglesPhan36]

I'd say remain small on the Italy UNDER. Chances of hitting both are small.

[EaglesPhan36]

And indeed Italy puts two 2nd half goals in to push it over. Israel-Bulgaria Wednesday is a good one though. I thought it and the Albania one today were the best 2 of the 3 to have a chance to hit. Hopefully we can get 2-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I would have posted that OVER, but my book had it listed as the wrong date. General info for San Marino matches in the U-21 ... take the OVER If it's 6 or less, they have lost every match 6-0 or worse!

[EaglesPhan36]

Latvia/Faroe Islands OVER 2/5/3 (-123)
3-1 the first time they met at Faroe Islands. At home, Latvia blistered Andorra 4-0 and gave up 4 goals each to Russia & Romania. Latvia has 9 goals in their last 3. Faroe Islands have conceded 8 in their last 3 and 5 in two straight away matches. Faroe Islands have only scored three times in 6 matches, but Latvia have kept just one clean sheet in 6. If Faroe Islands can score, I think this will get done. If not, then Latvia will need to do it all - and they could.

[EaglesPhan36]

Latvia was disappointing, did not even score. 1-0 faroe islands. Israel/Bulgaria coming up gents! Let's get that one.

[SRBI]

Israel 3-0 in the first half. Cash that ticket bro!