Today there's a promotion/relegation game for the Swedish top league between Djurgården (finished 12th in the highest league) and Assyriska (finished 3rd in second highest league). This is the second leg of two where Assyriska won the first one at their home stadium with 2-0.
Well, on to the interesting part of this... The books have put the odds for an Assyriska win to around 4.50 (+350) which is way too high for a team that totally outplayed the opponent only 4 days ago. I'm not saying they'll win outright but this means that different asian handicaps can be found at great odds (over 3.00 for DnB and over 2.00 for +0.5).
Djurgården needs to score 3 goals to win this playoff to stay in the highest league and if Assyriska scores the first goal they need to score 4. The over 2.5 might be a good play too.
I'd rather place my bet on Djurgården. Assyriska will be satisfied with a draw, and don't forget that the first leg was played on astro-turf. However, for me, this is a no-bet game. Djurgården are simply too lousy to count on...
I like the over, DIF have to score so they will leave themselves open at the back. Conny Karlsson the Coach of AFF says that the most important thing for them is to try not to concede any goals but I've seen Assyriska play a bunch of time this year and its not a style of play that fits them. Most of the time it will just have the opposite effect.
What worries me the most is that DIF is terrible so it might end up something like 0-1, but its a chance I'm willing to take.