[Smogs]

After a successful start to posting a winner on here.....and not playing it obviously (Bolton vs Everton), i will continue the trend with another play this weekend.

Ipswich 10/11 to beat Derby 3/1

Line movement - good movement in Ipswich's favour here, they started out as 11/10 and quickly moved down to 10/11 and 5/6 at Bet365, but i cannot imagine that apart from sharps this line would have moved without the bookies feeling uneasy about the +money situation.

H2H- Ipswich seem to match up very well against Derby, winning 8 of the last 10 at Portman Road, including the last 6 straight. Derby have the worst away record in the league.

Situation- this does look to favour Ipswich, and i hate the belief that 'they are due a win.' BUT, look at the fortunes of these clubs in recent weeks, Ipswich have all but stopped losing, they have drawn 4 of their last 5 and deservedly should have won 2 of those draws at least.
Derby on the other hand have been awful, even a 2 goal start against QPR who are notoriously bad on the road wasn't enough to see them through.
Now they go to Ipswich in bad form and low confidence against a team who will fight to get that first win. The momentum is with the home side and the pressure on Derby can make them crack.

Any thoughts of playing safe and going Ipswich DNB will have evaporated after the 11/10 ml was at 1/2 DNB, this has now gone down to 1/3 or lower so a straight ML play looks the best at today's price of 5/6 on Bet365.
Just as a thought, this would be a 3-unit play for me if i hadn't packed it in for a while.

Thoughts welcome