[Wilforth]

2-teamer: Inter Milan/Palmeiras +130


Inter Milan: They're playing host to Palermo. This qualifies as a good play for 2 reasons:

1) Juventus' demolition of Sampdoria means Inter now holds a slim 1-point lead over Juve at the top of the standings. Inter will savor taking all 3 points in this game to widen their lead over Juventus.

2) Palermo is quite a mediocre side on the road as they're 1-1-2 in that role. An examination of their road record shows that their only road win was at Livorno, which is one of the basement teams. Their 2 road losses were at Fiorentina and Parma, which home records are inferior to Inter's. Inter's 4-1-0 home record clearly edges Palermo's 1-1-2 road record.

3) After an inexplicable 1-1 draw in their first home game against Bari, Inter have won their home games, scoring at least 2 goals in each of those games. On the flip side, except for their 1-2 win at Livorno, Palermo haven't scored more than 1 goal in any of their other road games. In fact, they've been shutout in 2 of their 4 road games.

4) The meetings between these sides at Inter have been an alternation of home wins and draws. The last meeting at Inter ended in a draw and Inter has never drawn 2 straight home games against Palermo. You may check this out:

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/200...alermo/817367/

Palmeiras: Palmeiras have done everything in their capacity to scare away bettors as they're now winless in their L4 games. They however qualify as a solid play for 2 reasons:

1) Palmeiras qualify as a good redemption play. Before their slump, Palmeiras had a win rate of over 50%, while their opponent, Goais, have a win rate of about 30%. I've tested the redemption rule whenever I saw an opportunity and it has 100% success so far. By the redemption rule, play a team with a win rate of at least 50% that is winless in its L4 and is playing against a team with a win rate of about 30% or less, in a game that matters to the higher-winning team, baring injuries to key players.

2) The home team has won each of the L5 meetings between these sides.

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/200...-clube/773174/

[tbill11]

Thanks for the insight Wilforth. I'm starting up a project to try to turn very little money into something decent and was leaning on Inter -1/2,-1 as my first big play. I'm more than halfway to pulling the trigger after that analysis

[Wilforth]

tbill11,

There should also be some good games this weekend. These, for example:

EPL: Burnley +100 (to sail past a relegation-bound Hull)
Germany: Bayern Munich -117 (to ease past a non-existent Stuttgart)
Spain: Sevilla -167 (to kill and bury Xerez)

[Phillth]

I have a HUGE parlay with Denver who just covered and Inter -1. The Special One will guide his squad to 3 points.

[Wilforth]

I have a HUGE parlay with Denver who just covered and Inter -1. The Special One will guide his squad to 3 points.

You should cash your parlay. The Special One will plot the demolition of Palermo.

[pitman]

pro analysis on the inter game. GL

[Wilforth]

Pitman,

I'll give you 5 points for your avatar!

[pitman]

some times all i see is ass lol ..its hard to see but theres some cash in there somewhere. lol
thx bud.

[AsRequested]

ok thx & gl

i am playing both smallish.

[shantystar]

not agreed with palmieras +130 inter milan is the lock sir.

[Hybris]

BOL with this one.

[akerber]

I didnt liked bet Palmeiras. Palmeiras neeeds to win to return 1st position at championship, but last 4 rounds 0w 1d 3L, and today will not play 2 key players (cleiton xavier and vagner love). Goias is not good too, last 5 rounds 0w 2d (againt 19th and 20th position at championship), 3L. I think this game is not too god to bet. I will pass.

[RoagBettor]

Shanty called Inter a lock. Palermo at +625 looks good

[Phillth]

ah shit. shanty just jinxed us.

[RoagBettor]

Read this preview. I think I'll play the draw and Palermo ML

http://www.interfanclub.com/post/int...lermo-preview/

[EaglesPhan36]

Inter could be the jinx of the day, loads of people on them.

[The Baron]

I need a win. I will take my chances with Inter.

[RoagBettor]

Inter could be the jinx of the day, loads of people on them.

Palermo is in form, Inter has some key people out, and Palermo has a history of playing well at Inter. Just because a team has to win doesn't mean they will.

And with everyone on Inter, how will the books clean up today with only one Italy Series A game on tap (in fact, the only game going on in Italy and most of Europe with any significance)?

The perfect setup for an upset, or a draw.

[RoagBettor]

This situation is usually a Wilforth Special, I'm surprised he's not all over Palermo.

[Phillth]

Read this preview. I think I'll play the draw and Palermo ML

http://www.interfanclub.com/post/int...lermo-preview/

This is a strong line-up.

[Hybris]

Yeah thats like the strongest lineup in the Serie A...

[rkelly110]

Guys, you have to check out this awsome soccer system I found. You bet against the odds
and the draw. I bought this 5 days ago and I'm 8-0 +10 units. @ $48 it's a steal.

http:/www.fgimaffiliates.com/ezGaffurl.php?offer=sportflury&pid=12

[RoagBettor]

I put $10 on Palermo 1H at +450 and $30 on the draw at +275. It's worth a shot.

[Shark79]

Wil.

Love the Inter play ... on it, straight wager though.

Great Play on the C's last nite !!

[SmackdownV]

On Palermo +700 for half a unit.

Everyone is on Inter.........Only Series A game today.

LOVE IT!

[RoagBettor]

On Palermo +700 for half a unit.

Everyone is on Inter.........Only Series A game today.

LOVE IT!

[Karayilan9]

The big teams in Brazil have been stinking it up, hopefully Palmeiras get back on form.

[Wilforth]

Read this preview. I think I'll play the draw and Palermo ML

http://www.interfanclub.com/post/int...lermo-preview/

Did Sampdoria not have the edge over Juveuntus yesterday? What was the outcome of the game?
Today, you see why Inter are Champions. Palermo doesn't qualify for any special of any kind. Inter doesn't have a comfortable lead at the top right now. Even though this is the only Serie A game in Italy, Inter will still go all out for a win. The Inter line-up in that preview is a strong one, at least against a Palermo side that's been shutout on the road 50% of the time!

[tbill11]

I'm still liking Inter. Palermo's three wins came against Udinese at home (a dreadful squad), Livorno on the road (ditto), and Juventus at home (back when Juventus looked like sh*t). I think it's right to recognize that the public may be all over Inter, but the fact that now betters are jumping all over Palermo (as we've seen in this thread) is exactly what the books want. The action will be all on one team, and then people will start laying more bets on the other squad. And because Inter pays about -200, the risk/reward for this strategy is solid. The amount of money needed to pay out to Inter will likely be similar to the amount of money lost on Palermo (since Vegas will be paying a dollar for every 2 if Inter wins, and gaining a dollar back for every Palermo bet).

Inter looks too good to be beaten today, though as always, I very well could be wrong.

Edit: Here are the lineups: http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/footba...mo-344261.html

[Karayilan9]

Palermo are a home side, they play great in Sicily but struggle on the road, in addition they are missing two defenders and their goalkeeper through injuries and suspensions. The situation is right for an Inter win, they will take this game seriously as they are being criticised and their rivals are playing well. If you don't like the chalk, Over2.5 looks good in this match up aswel.

Palmeiras match updates, Palmeiras are missing Vagner Love and Xavier, Goias are missing Vitor and Eusebio in defense.

[CollegePro]

i hope inter win since I put some money on them too... but way to many ppl on inter and that's always bad

[CollegePro]

inter with 1-0 lead already!! wooo hooo

[Phillth]

I wonder if players decide not to play for palermo because they dont want to wear that kit.