[Wilforth]

I correctly prredicted the fall of Real Madrid at Sevilla and I'm looking ahead to a similar upset on Oct 18 after the WC Qualifiers weekend. I'm expecting Valencia to bring Barcelona down to earth. Valencia are 3-4-3 in the H2H record but the truth is that Valencia have been very successful at home against Barcelona. They're 3-0-1 in the L4 meetings at Valencia. A close examination of Barcelona's L5 results suggests that after a flying start to the season, they seem to be "winding down". Their L5 wins have been in this order (from the earliest to the most recent): 5-2, 4-1, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0. The goals seem to be progressively drying up. Valencia at home are capable of 2 goals against any team and one thinks a 2-1 Valencia win is in the offing.

Let's know what you think.

[Smogs]

I'll ride with it Wil - what do we think the Valencia price will be? Maybe +300? Or is that too optimistic since Valencia are still doing well.

[Wilforth]

Valencia should open at around +350 and then the unsuspecting public may push it to +400 by gametime. Why? Valencia are 1-2-0 at home and Barcelona will be going into this contest as league leaders and with a perfect record. The good thing also is that Valencia's 2 home draws were against a mediocre Gijon and an underperforming Atletico Madrid. If a perfect Sevilla were at +265 at home against Real madrid, I don't expect Valencia to be any less than +350 against a team with the powerful trio of Messi-Ibrahamovic-Henry. I'm hoping Barcelona's full squad will be available for this game so we can get a very nice price on Valencia. I'm also hoping this game will be the last game of the day in Spain or in the entire Europe on the day it'll be played.

[cro]

barca -1.5

[mihaita666]

i dont really think barcelona may have problems with valencia. Valencia really has big prblems in the defense and if David Villa doesn't have a brilliant day, they really have no chance; and having no chance with barcelona equals that they will somehow, sooner or later, score at least one. I think barcelona with lose first 2 or three points when we leats expect it.

[Smogs]

Originally Posted by mihaita666

I think barcelona with lose first 2 or three points when we leats expect it.

I think that is Wil's point

[mihaita666]

well, do people expect barcelona to have problems on mestalla ? some, many i'd say, do think so...unexpected would be a draw at home against ....dunno, tenerife ....

[Sportslover]

I'd be interested to see the odds for Valencia -0.5, this is a bet that I would be very, very interested in so I'll be keeping an eye out for this one.

I think you've made a solid call Wilforth, not sure if Valencia will get an outright victory but I think they've definately got a good chance of getting something from this game. Looking at the Barcelona players away on international duty, it seems that a few of them have travelled further than most of the Valencia squad so could this be another factor that might favour Valencia?

[mihaita666]

odds for valencia will probably grow the closer we'll be to the match

[TurkzZ]

Over 2.5

[Karayilan9]

Valencia will have big trouble with the state their defense has been in lately, they won't win this via a defensive route, the best shot they have is to go for it and try to outscore Barcelona, neither side has the greatest defense but Barca are just on another level right now.

[mihaita666]

Originally Posted by TurkzZ

Over 2.5

hell yeah

[Wilforth]

All I know is that Barcelona's first loss of the season ALWAYS comes unexpected.

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by TurkzZ

Over 2.5

Good call, if the odds are right, I'll be betting this play.