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Old 10-06-09, 05:02 PM   #1
Wilforth
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Default One soccer pick - Wednesday

FIFA U-20: Nigeria +285

Looking at the records of Germany and Nigeria, it may appear silly to pick Nigeria in this game. Germany got into the round of 16 as group leaders with 2 wins and a draw in the group stages. Nigeria barely managed to get into the round of 16. Nigeria lost 2 games and only recorded a win against an extra-generous Tahiti. So why pick Nigeria?

1) An examination of the lines: Given the records of both teams in this tournament, you would have expected Germany to be a favorite of about -180 to -200. That Germany ML is as high as -133 suggests two things: A) The Germans are no prohibitive favorites, and B) an outright upset can't be ruled out.

2) Stats: Germany's record against Nigeria in FIFA youth tournaments is nothing to write home about. Nigeria have been the victors in each of the 3 times that these countries have met in youth tournaments. The Germans succumbed by 2-0 to the Nigerians at the 1999 FIFA U-20 tournament, lost by 2-0 in 1985 at the U-17 level and spanked by a margin of 3-1 at the 2007 U-17 tourney. Can Nigeria make it 4-0 against Germany on Wednesday? 90 minutes of soccer will tell. I've been following these tournaments for a long time and Nigeria often do well when the odds are stacked against them. I've no hesitation in siding with them for the upset. If Nigeria is in need of an example to follow, the Costa Ricans have already provided one.

Tail with caution.
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Old 10-06-09, 07:17 PM   #2
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Excellent research!
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Old 10-06-09, 09:37 PM   #3
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Lets get this
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Old 10-07-09, 02:04 AM   #4
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well, i rarely follow the history specialy in this kind of tournaments. I know i might sound like an idiot, but i have watched Germany the last months and i think that these guys have a bright future. I just wanna say that this Nigeria team seems too soft for the panchers. History tells me nothing.
germany's victory pays 1,75(european odd) and that's a value bet for me.
we disagree for tonight's game, my friend
GL to everyone
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Old 10-07-09, 03:30 AM   #5
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tailed .5 and DNB
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Old 10-07-09, 08:51 AM   #6
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Gonna tail on +0.5 @+108 and also play the under 2.5 goals @+107
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Old 10-07-09, 11:25 AM   #7
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i realise u have to bet against whoeva make picks in soccer line. soccer is tough, hate it to the core when the match ends up in draw
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Old 10-07-09, 11:48 AM   #8
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Nigeria win is at +462 at pinnacle.
+0.5 is at +131.
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Old 10-07-09, 12:06 PM   #9
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lotsa movement

im leaning +1 now..
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Old 10-07-09, 12:10 PM   #10
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it's pouring on Germany

right now +1 is at 1.85 which is about -120
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Old 10-07-09, 12:25 PM   #11
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Hey guys...I am going with Germany ML here...I don't like looking at past results in these tournaments...specifically the U20 field of players...back in 1999, the entire team was different...that has no bearing on these players today...Germany has looked good of late, and Nigeria is a pretty soft opponent...I think the + 1/2 has a chance...but the ML doesn't seem that great to me...I see value on Nigeria...but ultimately, I think Germany wins this one 2-0 or 2-1...good luck with your bets...I've got Germany ML here though.
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Old 10-07-09, 12:57 PM   #12
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Damn! should have taken it easy with this one, public on germany the odds are som much better on Nigeria right now..
Oh well feels good being on the other side of the public on this one though..
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Old 10-07-09, 02:01 PM   #13
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on Niger +1

whatever lol

fuk the public
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Old 10-07-09, 02:04 PM   #14
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live betting odds favor Nigeria tho


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Old 10-07-09, 03:08 PM   #15
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There it is! 1-0
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Old 10-07-09, 03:09 PM   #16
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WTF 1-1 20 seconds later!
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Old 10-07-09, 03:29 PM   #17
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The red card kiss of death to Germany. Nigeria easy win now
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Old 10-07-09, 03:31 PM   #18
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1-2 now $50 to win @ $226 and I know absolutely nothing about soccer! Hold on!!!!

Last edited by Housemoney; 10-07-09 at 03:33 PM. Reason: edit potential winnings
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Old 10-07-09, 03:32 PM   #19
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That red card was so ridicuous ...

goal for germany 2-2!!
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Old 10-07-09, 03:35 PM   #20
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This game is getting wild, Negeria is showing lack of patience and tactics.
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Old 10-07-09, 03:37 PM   #21
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Old 10-07-09, 03:46 PM   #22
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Why can't these Nigerians do just one simple thing - hold unto a lead?
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Old 10-07-09, 03:50 PM   #23
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Ship!
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Old 10-07-09, 03:50 PM   #24
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WTF!
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Old 10-07-09, 03:51 PM   #25
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The public was right on this one. But it must said that Nigeria could have won this game.
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Old 10-07-09, 03:51 PM   #26
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That's what I get for betting on a sport I know nothing about.
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Old 10-07-09, 03:52 PM   #27
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OMG! Negeria suck so bad! Learn to play some defence and come back next year..damn they dont learn that?
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Old 10-07-09, 03:56 PM   #28
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Nigeria should have won that one. Wow. I'll take it boys!! Sorry about your losses! BOL on next one here!
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Old 10-07-09, 03:57 PM   #29
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can't believe i lost the X2 play on nigeria. that was sick.
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Old 10-07-09, 04:03 PM   #30
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I had Nigeria to win and draw as well. I almost vomited at the end there.

It still was a great pick. Nigeria should have won (or at least held on for the draw - patsies!).
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Old 10-07-09, 04:14 PM   #31
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omg that was horrible the goalie should be shot
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Old 10-07-09, 04:44 PM   #32
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i had Germany to won so i was the result paid me.
as expected the panchers are really tough team.
great game
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Old 10-07-09, 10:18 PM   #33
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Hat off to you wil, it was a great pick and certainly the right one, just a shame that the asian handicap didn't at least pull through.
Your strength is definitely on value high odds picks
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Old 10-07-09, 10:20 PM   #34
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Smogs,

We just have to endure some of these disappointments. Nigeria took the lead twice but they were a mess defensively.
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Old 10-07-09, 11:44 PM   #35
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almost
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