One soccer pick - Wednesday
FIFA U-20: Nigeria +285
Looking at the records of Germany and Nigeria, it may appear silly to pick Nigeria in this game. Germany got into the round of 16 as group leaders with 2 wins and a draw in the group stages. Nigeria barely managed to get into the round of 16. Nigeria lost 2 games and only recorded a win against an extra-generous Tahiti. So why pick Nigeria?
1) An examination of the lines: Given the records of both teams in this tournament, you would have expected Germany to be a favorite of about -180 to -200. That Germany ML is as high as -133 suggests two things: A) The Germans are no prohibitive favorites, and B) an outright upset can't be ruled out.
2) Stats: Germany's record against Nigeria in FIFA youth tournaments is nothing to write home about. Nigeria have been the victors in each of the 3 times that these countries have met in youth tournaments. The Germans succumbed by 2-0 to the Nigerians at the 1999 FIFA U-20 tournament, lost by 2-0 in 1985 at the U-17 level and spanked by a margin of 3-1 at the 2007 U-17 tourney. Can Nigeria make it 4-0 against Germany on Wednesday? 90 minutes of soccer will tell. I've been following these tournaments for a long time and Nigeria often do well when the odds are stacked against them. I've no hesitation in siding with them for the upset. If Nigeria is in need of an example to follow, the Costa Ricans have already provided one.
Tail with caution.
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