10-01-09, 05:56 PM
|
#1
|
|
|
Weekend picks - Oct 2-4
Belgium: Cercle Brugge +120 5u
Cercle Brugge travel to Roesalare to play the league's worst team. For whatever reasons, Cercle seem to be playing better on the road. Cercle have 2 wins in 4 road games, scoring 8 and conceding 4. The hosts are without a win, drawing one and losing 3 of their 4 home games. They've scored 4 and conceded 11 at home. So you do the math. A team that has scored 8 and conceded 4 on the road is visiting one that has scored 4 and conceded 11 at home. While the Over looks guaranteed as do most Roesalare games, the value lies with Cercle Brugge ML.
EPL: Burnley +120 3u
Burnley is an interesting team. They're yet to draw a game. They've won ALL their home games and lost ALL their road games. This is a team that knows their survival in the EPL will depend largely on their home record. At home, they've humiliated Man Utd, disgraced Everton and thrashed Sunderland. I have a feeling that Burnley at home will be a cash machine this season. Birmingham is a decent team, no doubt. But I think they'll find the going tough in the lions' den. Let's ride Burnley at home until the wheels fall off.
Spain: Valladolid +140 2u
This is a purely situational play. Valladolid are still without a home win as they lost their 2 home games to Osasuna and Valencia. They'll now have the privilege of hosting Atletico Bilbao. Bilbao have 1 win in 2 road games. That win came against a relegation-bound Xerex and it was a mere 1-0 win. They lost their other road game at Tenerife. Now, Bilbao played a Europa game in Germany on Thursday and will be on the road again on Sunday to play a Valladolid team that's hungry for a first home win. The good thing about Valladolid is that they scored in the home games they lost. So we're confident of their ability to score. From a situational point of view, we have a well-rested home team hosting a Bilbao that'll be playing their 3rd game in 9 days. Let's go with the well-rested home team at this generous price.
One more addition:
Spain: Sevilla +265 1u
Let me start with a quote from Guillem Balague, a respected La Liga analyst:
"I favour Sevilla in this game. I think they've got a fantastic team that pressures high up with lots of intensity in defence and attack. They counter attack, they've got good wingers and up front they've probably got one of the best trios in Fredi Kanoute, Luis Fabiano and Negredo.
Although Real Madrid have got very good defensive stats, they are deceiving because they actually concede lots of chances, it's just that they haven't played against teams that have got the power up front that Sevilla have.
I think Sevilla will win this one."
http://www.skysports.com/opinion/sto...598250,00.html
Four things have encouraged me to make this play:
1) None of the L10 meetings between these sides has ended in a draw. So we expect there'll be a winner in this one
2) Sevilla are 6-0-4 in this series and now hear this: Sevilla are 4-0-1 at home against Real
3) Just like Real, Sevilla go into this game with a perfect record in all games played this season
4) Many of Real's goals have been due to the sheer brilliance of Ronaldo - either through individual runs, free kicks or Ronaldo-created penalties. Even if Ronaldo played n this game, my money will still be on Sevilla, but the good news is that he's a doubt. That means even if he plays, he won't be at 100%.
Last edited by Wilforth; 10-02-09 at 09:38 AM.
Reason: Add a pick
|
|
|
|
10-01-09, 06:25 PM
|
#2
|
|
|
i also liked burnley at home but could see this being low scoring and dont want to lose money on a 1-1 so i am considering the under 2.5 for this game. both teams are combined for 9 goals in 14 games. Birmingham hasnt scored a goal yet in the the first 75 minutes of any game. i could see this one being 1-0 with a late equalizer if Burnley don't put them away.
|
|
|
|
10-01-09, 07:03 PM
|
#3
|
|
|
Wow Wilf,
I think I might've just found the biggest play of this weekend
80% of the public is on Tottenham.
I'm a die hard Tottenham fan but......this is it
Bolton +.5 very big
Bolton -.5 2-3 unit +275
not official yet tho , ill look into it some more  |
|
|
|
10-01-09, 07:04 PM
|
#4
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by regdent
i also liked burnley at home but could see this being low scoring and dont want to lose money on a 1-1 so i am considering the under 2.5 for this game. both teams are combined for 9 goals in 14 games. Birmingham hasnt scored a goal yet in the the first 75 minutes of any game. i could see this one being 1-0 with a late equalizer if Burnley don't put them away.
|
I appreciate your concern, but on a more cursory note, Birmingham have scored 2 and conceded 3 on the road, while Burnley at home have scored 5 and conceded a miserly 1 goal. Burnley shutout Man Utd and Everton before allowing a lone Sunderland goal in a game in which they won by 3-1. With 2 clean sheets in 3 home games, the Under looks mathematically appropriate in this game, but I fear a situation in which Burnley takes the lead in the 1H, then in trying to equalize, Birmigham opens their defense and Burnley scores a 2nd and somehow relaxes on defense and concede a late goal. As I'm optimistic of a Burnley win, I think this could end with 1 or 3 goals, i.e 1-0 or 2-1. So Under is a pass for me.
|
|
|
|
10-01-09, 07:07 PM
|
#5
|
|
|
you can get upto +300 in some places
|
|
|
|
10-01-09, 07:16 PM
|
#6
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by theplagy
Wow Wilf,
I think I might've just found the biggest play of this weekend
80% of the public is on Tottenham.
I'm a die hard Tottenham fan but......this is it
Bolton +.5 very big
Bolton -.5 2-3 unit +275
not official yet tho , ill look into it some more |
Why are you sold on Bolton? Please let us know, so we can tail you and make some dough. The high plus-value picks I'm considering are:
France: Valenciennes +210
Germany: FSV Mainz +300
Italy: Bologna +200
EPL: Man Utd/Sunderland draw +500
Germany: FC Koln (1st half) +800
|
|
|
|
10-01-09, 11:21 PM
|
#7
|
|
|
BOL this weekend manu draw +550 @ bet usa worth atleast half a unit
Last edited by demize21; 10-01-09 at 11:24 PM.
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 12:06 AM
|
#8
|
|
|
demize21,
To me, I think both Man Utd/Sunderland draw and Koln 1H are worth 0.5 u plays. To any keen watcher, it's clear that Man Utd aren't what they were last season. They're quietly struggling. If Sunderland chokes the midfield and are able to stick in one odd goal, this one will be headed for a 1-1 draw.
As for Koln, they're quietly doing fine and will be visiting an overrated and tired Bayern Munich. Among the so-called elite teams in Germany, Bayern Munich is about the most vulnerable when playing against supposedly inferior opposition. I think Koln can stick in one in the 1H.
Real Madrid will be facing a real test at Sevilla. I've watched almost all of Real's games and I must say their defense is much worse than the number of goals conceded would suggest. They allow opponents a good number of scoring opportunities but they've been lucky to have played teams that lack the offensive quality to exploit those defensive frailties. One thinks Sevilla (+240) could beat Real by a 3-2 margin.
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 02:12 AM
|
#9
|
|
|
i couldnt agree more with your assesments alot of value this weekend hopefully they go in our favor also
tailing your plays, also played a small parlay that hopefully hits
Parlay (5 Teams) 10/01/09 23:36 ET
bet 5.00 to win 1,327.05 Result: Pending
TottenhamHotspur
BoltonWanderers 10/03/09(10:00 ET)
BoltonWanderers +260
BirminghamCity
Burnley 10/03/09(10:00 ET)
Burnley +120
Sunderland
ManchesterUnited 10/03/09(12:30 ET)
Tie +550
CercleBrugge(BelgiumJupiler)
Roeselare(BelgiumJupiler) 10/03/09(14:00 ET)
CercleBrugge(BelgiumJupiler) +125
AthleticoBilbao(LigaBBVA)
Valladolid(LigaBBVA) 10/04/09(11:00 ET)
Valladolid(LigaBBVA) +130
also played the same one except with tott/bolton tie you never know  |
|
|
|
10-02-09, 07:39 AM
|
#10
|
|
|
Like the picks Wil. I am seeing a bunch of stuff I like this weekend, laying off Arsenal though because Fat Sam loves to come to the Emirates and choke the midfield. I am surprised to be able to get prices like this on Bodog.
Koln +1.5 (+110)
Wolfsburg -1/2 (EVEN)
Bordeaux -1/2 (+105)
Juve -105
Sevilla +240 (I like this more that Ronaldo is out for the weekend, although I want to see what the Asian handicap comes out as. Have you seen it yet?)
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 07:47 AM
|
#11
|
|
|
Tottenham is playing out of their minds right now.
10 goals the last 2 matches. They pretty much score on anybody they want except the the Man U Chelsea game.
The little interesting fact here is Tottenham has never been able to been Bolton at Reebok this decade.
Bolton went 6-3-0 in 9 matches the last time Spurs were favored (-.25) on the road against Bolton it ended in a draw.
Eventhough Spurs seem to choke on big matches they usually clean up well against average or bad teams. and that's why 83% of the
public is on Tottenham. Bolton have also been playing a little better than at the beginning of the season. Liverpool had to rely on 2 late
goals and an extra man to come out of Reebok. I guess you can make the case that Spurs beat Liverpool early in season.
Tottenham average defense will bite them. Their first clean sheet of the season came last week in a 5-0 killling spree in London against woeful road team Burnley.
Bolton scored at least 1 goals in each of their last 3 home games. And the biggest thing about tottenham is inconsistency, they can choke in their peak form or bite in their lowest form.
After all this, Bolton +.5 has to worth at least 1 unit play right?
I see a 2-1 Victory for the home side
What you think?
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 07:53 AM
|
#12
|
|
|
All I need to know is 83% of the public is on Tottenham. Go Bolton!
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 07:56 AM
|
#13
|
|
|
Brilliant Plagy, you make me want to put an extra unit on Bolton outright. 3/1 i can get
Also, Wilforth - i have placed a unit on Cercle Brugges, so good luck to us both in that one.
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 07:57 AM
|
#14
|
|
|
BTW, where do i get figures on the public money on which team, i know loads for NFL but not soccer
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 08:03 AM
|
#15
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 08:42 AM
|
#16
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Outkast81
Like the picks Wil. I am seeing a bunch of stuff I like this weekend, laying off Arsenal though because Fat Sam loves to come to the Emirates and choke the midfield. I am surprised to be able to get prices like this on Bodog.
Koln +1.5 (+110)
Wolfsburg -1/2 (EVEN)
Bordeaux -1/2 (+105)
Juve -105
Sevilla +240 (I like this more that Ronaldo is out for the weekend, although I want to see what the Asian handicap comes out as. Have you seen it yet?)
|
Sevilla +.5
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 09:00 AM
|
#17
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by theplagy
|
Plagy,
Thanks for this piece of info.
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 09:05 AM
|
#18
|
|
|
don't you think we can get +.75 on Saturday for bolton?
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 09:49 AM
|
#19
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by theplagy
don't you think we can get +.75 on Saturday for bolton?
|
With 83% of money on Tottenham, two plays that look good are:
1) Bolton 1H +275 (the line should go up by gametime)
2) Bolton +0.5 (don't know the odds yet)
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 09:53 AM
|
#20
|
|
|
Bolton 1H +285 at Bookmaker.
I think I'm going to put 1 unit on Bolton ML +245 and Draw +215 instead of the PK +175.
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 10:08 AM
|
#21
|
|
|
tottenham -.5 is still +103
so maybe if the pub is still 80% on sat and this line remains the same we know something is up
|
|
|
|
10-02-09, 10:35 AM
|
#22
|
|
|
Recall what happened in these recent games?:
Barnsley/West Brom
Newcastle/Queens Park Rangers
Galatasaray/Sturm Graz
AC Milan/FC Zurich
Basel/Roma
Confederations Cup: Spain/USA
Recall how the public fell for the favorites in those games? Recall how the underdogs all won the 1H? Similarly, I think Bolton will win the 1H. Why? I believe just as the public are on Tottenham, the majority of 1H side bets will also be on Tottenham 1H. If Bolton wins the 1H and then wins or draws the 2H, then these bets will end up as sucker bets and the books will be happy:
Tottenham ML
Tottenham 1H
Tottenham 2H
|
|
|
|
10-03-09, 11:50 AM
|
#23
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilforth
Belgium: Cercle Brugge +120 5u LOSS
EPL: Burnley +120 3u WIN
Spain: Valladolid +140 2u
Spain: Sevilla +265 1u
|
Burnley wins. Cercle Brugge loses.
1-2 -1.40
Last edited by Wilforth; 10-03-09 at 04:20 PM.
|
|
|
|
10-03-09, 11:57 AM
|
#24
|
|
|
Good Job buddy
Bolton +.5 cashed big for me as well
too bad they cant hold the lead, twice
|
|
|
|
10-03-09, 02:22 PM
|
#25
|
|
|
Sunderland +1575
wow. I was on Sunderland +1.75 but didn't think they'd pull this shit tho.
 |
|
|
|
10-03-09, 02:25 PM
|
#26
|
|
|
90' [2 - 2] A. Ferdinand (o.g.)
 |
|
|
|
10-04-09, 05:01 PM
|
#27
|
|
|
take sevilla to the bank baby!!!!!  |
|
|
|
10-04-09, 05:21 PM
|
#28
|
|
|
demize21,
Thanks! One needs to start concentrating only on teams that can deliver. Cercle Brugge was up by 2-1 until the 87th minute and then let in 2 stupid goals. Valladolid conceded the 2nd goal withing a minute of taking the lead.
Burnley and Sevilla did it. I liked Mainz +300 but didn't pull the trigger. Let's see how it goes during the week.
|
|
|
|
10-04-09, 05:23 PM
|
#29
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by wilforth
belgium: cercle brugge +120 5u loss
epl: burnley +120 3u win
spain: valladolid +140 2u loss
spain: sevilla +265 1u win
|
2-2 -0.75
|
|
|
|
10-04-09, 05:24 PM
|
#30
|
|
|
yea i played em both as well but i had insurance with valladolid i had em DNB also played sevilla DNB and straight so glad that hit and so far nfl going well, but i have a nice parlay pending as long as mengo wins
Parlay (3 Teams) 10/04/09 14:04 ET
bet 50.00 to win 323.50 Result: Pending
Fluminense(SerieA)
Flamengo(SerieA) 10/04/09(17:30 ET)
Flamengo(SerieA) -151
Genk(BelgiumJupiler) 0
Standard(BelgiumJupiler) 1 10/04/09(14:30 ET)
Standard(BelgiumJupiler) -200
RealMadrid(LigaBBVA)
Sevilla(LigaBBVA) 10/04/09(15:00 ET)
Sevilla(LigaBBVA) +200
i know im biased towards my team but adriano has been playing well and were due for a win at home
|
|
|
|
10-04-09, 05:42 PM
|
#31
|
|
|
BOL on your parlay. Got anything for Tuesday?
|
|
|
|
10-04-09, 06:04 PM
|
#32
|
|
|
ill look into it tonight after this fixture its kinda intense im watching 4 diffrent games right now jets , broncos, flamengo ind international need them all to do good
|
|
|
|
10-04-09, 07:18 PM
|
#33
|
|
|
adriano with 2 goals to seal the deal took em second half also man im having a good day except for the fvckin jets
going big on chargers tonight buying a point
|
|
|
|
|
