[Wilforth]

I'm going with 2 home dogs that are unbeaten at home as I think their opponents are overrated.

Anderlecht +200
Anderlecht play host to Ajax. Ajax is, at best, a local champion. They've been unbale to transfer their league form to the Europa competition. Ajax's offense hasn't really clicked in this competition and one highly doubts that Ajax's defense can shutout the Anderlecht's offense.

Red Bull Salzburg +220 WIN
Red Bull play host to Villareal. If the Spanish league ended today, Villareal would be relegated. That's the brutal truth! Villareal should be more concerned with their league games than Europa games. They have a league game against Espanyol on Sunday, which is a must-win if they want themselves out of the relegation zone. After beating Lazio in their last Europa game, Red Bull will savor their chances of bullying another overrated favorite.

[oscar4122]

What do you think about draw no bet on these?

[Wilforth]

If you can get DNB, that'll be fine. It's also worth noting that Anderlecht have won all four of their previous home games against Dutch sides.

[oscar4122]

I get draw no bet to +148 on Salzburg and to +142 on Anderlecht at Pinnaclesports.
I'll play that.


BOL

[Wilforth]

Let's hope for luck. The fact is road favorites hardly live up to expectations in these competitions. We all witnessed last week how Basel humiliated Roma. Valencia was held to a draw by a lowly Lille. We also saw yesterday how an unfancied Fiorentina gave lessons to Liverpool on how to play soccer. Rubin Kazan almost disgraced Inter Milan. Chelsea could only manage a 1-0 win at Nicosia!!! So let's pitch our tents with solid home dogs and watch them humilate their visitors.

[demize21]

GL wilforth tailing with the DNB for a little protection

[cro]

can anderlecht stop ajax that is the question.

[Wilforth]

can anderlecht stop ajax that is the question.

That's a valid question and one to be appreciated especially if one considers Ajax's pedigree in Europe. I'm not concerned with the past. If the past was relevant to predicting the outcome of European games, then AC Milan, with their rich European record, should have beaten FC Zurich easily. I'm concerned only with the outcome of a 90-minute game to be played in Brussels, Belgium, on the first day of October, 2009. Before putting my money on Anderlecht, the only relevant question to me is "Can Anderlecht score against Ajax?" I'm very confident that the answer to that question is "YES". I'm not sold on those cheap goals Ajax score against other Dutch teams. Where was the Ajax offense when Timisoara came visiting? European games are a unique ballgame and the best way to avoid losing money is to avoid playing overrated road favorites.

So to answer your question, I can't tell if Anderlecht can stop Ajax but I think the visitors will have a harder time stopping the hosts than vice versa.

[cro]

If ajax's goals against dutch competition don't concern you i think you should remember belgium is hollands little brother.

I dont know who will win, im just saying ajax is more dangerous than anderlecht.

[Wilforth]

Cro,

I'm not disagreeing with you at all. But it's the thinking that the apparently better team should always win that often makes us lose. Three things to note are that:

1) It's not easy to win on the road
2) Not all teams in this competition are taking it serious. I have no way of knowing how serious Ajax is taking this competition, but I do know that teams from less fancied leagues take this competition more seriously than those from the elite leagues.
3) Generally, underdogs tend to do more preparation for a big game than favorites

[cro]

You make alot of posts giving advice, what's your soccer record?

[tbill11]

It has to be pretty good. Whenever I've tailed him I've fared very well!

[andrewaxia]

On Salzburg as well but went the conservative route +1/2
Full lineup for them and at home. Villareal will be happy for a draw

[linesdotcom]

on ya tail wilforth!

[Wilforth]

Salzburg takes the lead in the 21st.

[theplagy]

damn dude

didnt realized half of the games start early


I love the Redbulls as well but too late


Is galatasaray a must or what?

[Wilforth]

any thoughts on Dinamo Zagreb +230?

I have no hesitation in recommending Dinamo Zagreb ML, if ONLY they'll field their first team. Timisoara have only managed 3 goals in their L4 home games. At Zagreb's scoring rate, I don't see them being shutout by the Romanians. History is also on Zagreb's side as they've truimphed in ALL their L3 visits to Romania. BOL if you decide to go with it. I only decided to do home dogs, otherwise, Zagreb is easily the best road dog on the Europa board.

[Wilforth]

damn dude

didnt realized half of the games start early


I love the Redbulls as well but too late


Is galatasaray a must or what?

Galatasaray is presently at -400. I think Celtic -181 is a better play from a value point of view. Celtic are in a rich vein of form and undefeated at home. I may be wrong, but I like Celtic ML than Galatasaray ML. I should quickly add that Dinamo Zagreb PK +165 looks very good.

[andrewaxia]

Salzburg on their way to winning

[RoagBettor]

Nice call on Salzburg Wil

[Wilforth]

Red Bull humiliates a fake road favorite. Red Bull wins 2-0.

1-0 +2.20

Hoping Anderlecht does their part in contributing to a happy day.

[RoagBettor]

Some late line movement on Dinamo Zagreb, I grabbed the PK at +105 for my 4 team parlay.

[demize21]

nice call wilforth

[theplagy]

I just hit Lisbon pretty hard myself, Hertha is a mess right now.

my other plays are

Genoa
Basel
Anderlech
Galatasaray
Zagreb
CSKA Sofia
Tel aviv

let see how I do today

haha

[RoagBettor]

F'n Dinamo killed my last parlay. It never fails, whenever I see that late line movement I should jump on it straight up but I never do.

[theplagy]

Some late line movement on Dinamo Zagreb, I grabbed the PK at +105 for my 4 team parlay.

I thought you grabbed it ?

C'mon Basel

[RoagBettor]

I grabbed it in my parlay with Galatasorry who are stinking it up and will not win by 2 goals!

[Wilforth]

Anderlecht +200 LOSS

Red Bull Salzburg +220 WIN


1-1 +1.20

Not bad.
I'll post my weekend picks soon.

[theplagy]

3-4-1 breaking even kinda

had lisbon ML big

[Wilforth]

Ya, Hertha is in a terrible funk so fading them big is appropriate. Anderlecht tried against Ajax but the visitors are a very good team. Having cashed Red Bull at +220, I can't complain.

[ji03]

I played the +0.5 for both games, so thanks for the winners

[Wilforth]

I played the +0.5 for both games, so thanks for the winners

That's good, I'm happy for you.

I'm still considering for this weekend:

France: Valenciennes +210

They'll be on the road at OG Nice. OG Nice is in a funk right now and Valenciennes are smoking hot. Maybe there's something the books know that I'm not privy to. Otherwise, on current form Valenciennes +210 is the play in that game.