[Phillth]

Looking at the EPL table tonight i noticed something very odd. There a significantly low draw rate to start off the season. In the 66 matches played so far there have only been 4 draws. This is a frequency of 6 percent. This is a huge deviation from the average rate of 24-25% normally seen in the prem league. This leads me to believe there will a high rate of draws in the coming match weeks to correct to the normal rate of draws.

[mihaita666]

looking and the fixtures, i can see 2 or 3 draw possibilities, u might be right

[stats13]

4 outta 66 is absurd

[Phillth]

yes a correction is due. the league always ends with draw rate around 25%

[cro]

the quality between the sides this year is alot different than other years, so there will be less draws,

[stats13]

Originally Posted by cro

the quality between the sides this year is alot different than other years, so there will be less draws,

but shouldnt that even out when the lower quality sides play each other (also the higher quality sides vs high)?

[stats13]

Originally Posted by Phillth

yes a correction is due. the league always ends with draw rate around 25%

i wouldn't expect anything higher than 25-35% draws in any given week, i doubt they have 50% draws "just to get back on track"

[Hybris]

There have been an increase in goals scored also...

[Phillth]

Here are the draw frequencies for the last ten years:

08/09 - 24.2%
07/08 - 26.3%
06/07 - 25.7%
05/06 - 19.3%
04/05 - 28.9%
03/04 - 27.1%
02/03 - 23.7%
01/02 - 26.6%
00/01 - 26.6%
99/00 - 24.2%

So even if we get another fluke year like 05/06 we still have a huge correction to be made.

[Wilforth]

The draw rate will go up when fatigue and injuries set in.

[Phillth]

50% of the matches this past week were draws. that 6% is correcting itself

[LinWin]

You are talking about "the law of averages" or the Gamblers fallacy
From Wikipedia:

the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle.

Gamblers fallacy:

is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses

[RoagBettor]

Originally Posted by LinWin

You are talking about "the law of averages" or the Gamblers fallacy
From Wikipedia:

the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle.

Gamblers fallacy:

is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses

You're not comparing apples to apples. Flipping a coin has to do with odds (50/50), whereas the draws have to do with averages (ie. in a typical season the draw percentage will be around 20%). Not the same thing statistically.

[Phillth]

look at any league in the world and check out the draw rate for the history of that league. it will fall between 20-30% by the end the season. It will NEVER finish at 6%. thats all im saying

[Wilforth]

Originally Posted by Phillth

look at any league in the world and check out the draw rate for the history of that league. it will fall between 20-30% by the end the season. It will NEVER finish at 6%. thats all im saying

Exactly! No league can achieve a draw rate of less than 10% in a season. That's almost a taboo.

[theplagy]

Originally Posted by Wilforth

Exactly! No league can achieve a draw rate of less than 10% in a season. That's almost a taboo.

My Indoor Soccer League....

[LinWin]

So can you explain to me why a game is more likely to draw now, because
fewer games have been draw earlier in the season ?
For example, United is playing Bolton on the 17. Do Ferguson warn the players that
they must be aware that draw is more likely now ?

My point is that the past games has no affect on the future games, but the rate of draws will
most likely go up, because the probability of a draw is higher than 6%. But you know that already, so
no advantage in gambling.

[cro]

who cares about draw frequency
you still have to pick which game will draw and when, so even if the percentage is supposed to even out it doesnt help anyone picking who and when will they draw.

[RoagBettor]

There's no telling which games will draw or if they'll draw now. The law of averages does not predict when, so theoretically the last 50 games could end in a draw to get the average up (albeit unlikely LOL). Or this could be an aberration year, like the weather!

The bottom line is no one knows anything for certain when it comes to gambling (or being married and having daughters!).

[Phillth]

Originally Posted by cro

who cares about draw frequency
you still have to pick which game will draw and when, so even if the percentage is supposed to even out it doesnt help anyone picking who and when will they draw.

it helped when i bet draws on all matches last week.