[Wilforth]

AIK/Manchester City +110 3u

If either or both of these teams fail to win, the shame will be on them.

[TWEETS]

I always love your insight Wilforth, will be on this more than likely.

[TWEETS]

What do you think about throwing Venezuela from the U20 World Cup in there to make the payout just a little better. I see about a .01% chance that Tahiti even scores a goal.

[cro]

10000% venezuela

[Wilforth]

I always love your insight Wilforth, will be on this more than likely.

My reasons for the parlay as follows:
1) AIK: One expects them to maintain their fight for the Swedish title. In Djurgadens, they have a very loyal opponent.
2) Man City: This is one team that has a realistic chance of breaking into the eternal order of the English Top Four. One expects them to maintain their perfect home record against a decaying West Ham.

I see those games as mere formalities in which the road teams already know their awaiting fate.

[RoagBettor]

Is it worth a play on the -1 for each?

[Wilforth]

What do you think about throwing Venezuela from the U20 World Cup in there to make the payout just a little better. I see about a .01% chance that Tahiti even scores a goal.

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Venezuela will be an easy addition to the parlay. No questions asked.

[Wilforth]

Is it worth a play on the -1 for each?

I'd say yes.

[RoagBettor]

How about adding Italy against Trinidad/Tobago in the U20?

[Wilforth]

How about adding Italy against Trinidad/Tobago in the U20?

For whatever reasons, recent Italian youth sides tend to be goal-shy. Trinidad&Tobago may have lost their first game but at least they scored against the hosts. In a tournament, I won't put money on a team that hasn't scored against one that has scored. The fear with playing Italy is that T&T is capable of scoring a goal while we're not sure if Italy can score up to 2. That game is a pass for me.

[Crash]

hoped on it

[tbill11]

Which one are you most confident on? I have one account down to like 7 bucks, about to go all-in on one of these money lines. I'm thinking City might be the safer bet, but I want the expert's insight!

[Phillth]

Citeh are still sour about letting that point slip against United. They will come out firing. A win by a margin of 2 goals will jump them to 4th place with a game in hand against the 'big 3'. Another thing i like about this match is the possibility of Tevez and Bellamy scoring against their former club. This should be a thumping. 3-0 city

[cro]

thats what i think, tevez will score .

[Wilforth]

Which one are you most confident on? I have one account down to like 7 bucks, about to go all-in on one of these money lines. I'm thinking City might be the safer bet, but I want the expert's insight!

There's no expert here. But this is it:
1) AIK have scored a total of 13 goals in their 12 home games, which comes to a home scoring average of 1.08 goals per game (g/g), while conceding 0.5 g/g. That average is however higher against teams in the lower quarter of the league. Djurgardens on their part have a road-scoring average of 0.75 g/g while conceding 2.67 g/g. We also observe that on the road, Djurgadens lost to 3 of the top 4 teams, IFK Goteborg, Kalmar, and Elfsborg by 6-0, 6-0, and 3-1, respectively. We can establish on the basis of that record that Djurgardens loses on the road to the top 4 by at least 2 goals.

2) In the case of Manchester City, we have a smaller sample size, so we can't say anything definitive about their scoring average. In their 2 home games, they've had 2 wins of 1-0 and 4-2. On West Ham's part, they're yet without a goal in their road travels while conceding 1 goal (we're excluding Carlings Cup games). But their 2 road games were against low-scoring teams - Blackburn and Wigan. So they could have conceded more goals against decent offenses.

The good thing about Man City is that after scoring 3 goals in their first 2 games, they've scored 7 goals in their last 2 games. On the assumption that Man City will maintain their recent scoring form, I'd say Man City ML is more guaranteed.

My predictions for both games are:

AIK wins by 2-0.

Man City wins by 3-1.

I have no problems parlaying the money lines of both favorites as I expect both, or at least one of them to win on the runline.

[cro]

ill bet small on aik over from your analysis.

[EaglesPhan36]

Like it Wilforth. AIK is the best side to take on the board for Monday IMO. Man City I'm not quite sold on, but they appear to be the 2nd best side to wager on for Monday.

[tbill11]

I really appreciate the insight. I'm far from done betting if this doesn't hit, just one of my accounts has been put into dangerously low levels thanks to a very bad NFL and NCAA run these past few weeks (seems as if no matter how well I cap those games, I'm not hitting). Soccer has been good to me so far though, and I've been up around 9 units over the past few weeks. I was leaning Man City heavy before I saw this thread, but now I'm gonna take the risk and put my tiny roll on the ML in hopes to keep that account alive haha.

[RoagBettor]

OK I played 3 different parlays with AIK/Man City/Venezuela, good luck today guys!

[Hybris]

I like this parlay. I´´m getting +117 and it gets my attention so to speak

Hard to see AIK not getting the win in Stockholm today.

[bigjonson]

I dropped a half unit on it. I don't have the big funds to play but I hold my own.

My analysis remains the same on these games. I have studied these teams historically and it looks like Man City is a forced to be reckoned with.

As far as AIK, I believe this will come down to sheer pride. They want to remain respectable and will require some heart to finish this thing out. I have seen them get quite lazy post 45' of games but I think today they bust one out in a big way.

I also think this game as well as the man city game goes over 2.5

Disclaimer: I have only been betting soccer/watching soccer for about 1.5 years but thus far my record has been hitting 69% to 72%for 2008 and into 2009.

[Wilforth]

One more point to note is this: AIK is coming off a road loss, which is their 3rd road loss so far. The records show that AIK have won their home game after coming off each of their first 2 road losses. One believes that trend should continue today.

[sprn]

I would like to add that the AIK - Djurgården game is a Stockholm derby and there's a lot of prestige in this game. AIK are big favourites in this game but anything can happen in a derby and I don't see much value in the odds given for an AIK win. In my opinion the value lies in betting on under 2.5 goals @ 1.85.

[Hybris]

Best of luck with that bacardi

[mats9863]

May I give my hint to the parlay?
Italian B series : Ancona-Modena Over 2.5 (115)
GL

[Jimmy0607]

Venezuela up 3 - 0 , Tahiti down 2 man

[Wilforth]

I parlayed the following Wilforth

Manchester City ML
Strasbourg ML
$50 to win $179.45

Manchester ML
Strasbourg/Caen Draw
$50 to win $188.66

Wasnt home in time to pick up AIK

BOL

[TAPDATBOOK]

AIK could be a DRAW 1-1. I have been playing euro soccer for long time when a home team gives 1pt to away team, most of the time is a draw. So this may be a luck too.

I parlayed the following Wilforth

Manchester City ML
Strasbourg ML
$50 to win $179.45

Manchester ML
Strasbourg/Caen Draw
$50 to win $188.66

Wasnt home in time to pick up AIK

[demize21]

thats positive thinking