08-05-09, 10:16 PM
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#1
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Smogs English Football Thread
The new season is a good time to start a thread on here and having had a successful summer betting wise, i have myself a rather nice £3000 bankroll.
This is a £3000 investment in my view as along with the NFL i do hope to make a decent return on investment.
I have broken the bankroll into £2000 for the season and £1000 for ante-post bets.
Those can all be seen on my spreadsheet as this thread will mirror those picks.
1 Unit is 1% of the £2000 bankroll
Just for the record, here are my ante-post bets -
Michael Chopra Top GS +1600 £50
Sunderland to finish above Hull -350 £250
Cardiff to finish above Swansea -150 £100
Cardiff to finish top SW Team (Bristol City,Plymouth,Swansea & Cardiff) +125 £100
Firstly, I am a Middlesbrough Fan and for our sins i now have to watch the Championship. Well, i aim to crack the league and make money from it and the opening day is a perfect opportunity for that.
Opening Day i am going for -
Sheff Wed to beat Barnsley........+105 1 Unit
Cardiff to beat Scunny -.75 AH........-105 2 Unit
WBA to beat the Geordies........... +132 1 Unit
Risking 4 Units for the 8th August
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Points Awarded:
 elf34 gave Smogs 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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08-05-09, 10:19 PM
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#2
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i like the sunderland move.... Love the black cats
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08-05-09, 10:38 PM
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#3
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like the WBA move, Geordies will struggle. GL
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08-06-09, 01:48 AM
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#4
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hey smogs, good to see you back, i wouldn't go in too heavy for the 1st couple weeks , just until teams settle and get into a rhythm, the opening weeks can be very unpredictable, i like the Sunderland to finnish above Hull Bet though 
good luck |
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08-06-09, 05:21 AM
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#5
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Yeh cheers Turkzz, i have laid off football for a while but i'm back and hopefully we all have a good season 
I fully understand what you mean, i may change the 2 units on Cardiff to 1 because you never know and we don't really have form to go off.
I won't bet anything till friday night probably and then i may do some editing on the thread. |
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08-06-09, 06:49 AM
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#6
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I don't like to mess with what works for you but risking 1/3 the bankroll on anteposts is a very risky strategy. The first games of any of the footy season are usually the most unpredictable, its great for taking the big dogs and finding that team going on that early run but you find alot of the so-called big favs having strange results. Hull and Hoffenhein bought in the cash last year and were big dogs in most the games for the early part of the season.
BOL this season!
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08-06-09, 05:21 PM
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#7
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Yeh, thanks for the input Guys,
Kara, the 1/3 of a bankroll issue is not about money management to e, it is about tieing down a grand for the year and having the interest from those picks for a year.
My bets on a week to week basis are 1/2% of the bankroll.
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08-07-09, 03:08 AM
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#8
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Another thing, i will just post my plays but if anyone would like insight into why i am playing a team i will write an explanation.
I always like to understand where someone is coming from when picking a team myself so i'll be happy to do it
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08-07-09, 01:33 PM
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#9
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Massive lean on the Middlesbrough/ Sheff Utd Draw, will not put the money on it though until i see the teams at 7:15 i hope
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08-07-09, 01:40 PM
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#10
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Smogs,
Glad to see you back.
With Newcastle's player exodus, don't you see West Brom beating the Castle this weekend?
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08-07-09, 02:07 PM
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#11
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Yup, got a unit on it wil |
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08-07-09, 02:09 PM
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#12
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Team is out and the draw is the play - 1 Unit
In ante-post news - i took out the £100 on Cardiff/Swansea match bet and put that £100 on the SW Club bet so it's now £200 on Cardiff
Last edited by Smogs; 08-07-09 at 04:57 PM.
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08-07-09, 02:15 PM
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#13
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On Sunday, you may take a look at Kalmar FF (+100) in Sweden. They're as hot as hell right now. They can do no wrong. In Brazil, I'm keeping a close eye on Avai and Goais. Those 2 teams can earn one a living. True!
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08-07-09, 02:29 PM
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#14
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Cheers Wil, i'll have a look. I have my unit on the draw tonight, that would be a great start to my thread.
I noticed you had an input into the LA Angels tonight, i may have to trail that one
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08-07-09, 02:45 PM
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#15
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What I like about the Angels is their disgust for mediocrity. When they win a game, they often do so as comprehensively as possible. As favorites, Angels RL is often a better play especially against teams with a lame offense. The Texas offense isn't clicking on the road. Add that to their road-weariness and you have the Angels RL cashing with relative ease. When I play the Angels as dogs, I take the RRL. On their day, those guys make scoring look like the easiest thing in the universe.
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08-07-09, 04:56 PM
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#16
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We have a first play winner!! 
Record - 1-0-0 - Up 2.3 Units = £46 |
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08-07-09, 04:58 PM
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#17
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Very nice call!!!!!
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08-07-09, 05:10 PM
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#18
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Cheers guys, very happy with the start but we need to consolidate it and despite already noting down my picks and units for tomorrow's games, i am going to re evaluate them tonight and have my final picks in an hour or so
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08-07-09, 07:04 PM
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#19
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After much deliberating i have re-thought my bets for tomorrow.
1 Unit - Sheff Wed to beat Barnsley @ evs
1.5 Units - Rotherham to beat Accy Stanley @ 4/6
Both at Coral and can be seen on my spreadsheet
I took out WBA because it just seems too easy, Cardiff because i have so much ante-post on them and don't want to get burned straight away.
Good luck guys
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08-07-09, 07:15 PM
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#20
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thanks for the update Smogs, great start 
Am already on WBA tho so hope you're right and it's easy  |
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08-07-09, 08:11 PM
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#21
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Yeh it should be Kop, i don't see anything that can give Newcastle a chance tbh, they have no strikers for a start and have everything else going against them
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08-08-09, 12:12 PM
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#22
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1-1 today 0 Units
Luckily Rotherham was 1.5 units to break even after Sheff wed got my hopes up only to f*ck it in the 2nd half
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08-08-09, 01:06 PM
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#23
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Good Luck to you Smogs! 
It's good to have insight from people who follow Championships from different countries closely.
I have found that betting English football is more difficult than other countries. It seems that English teams don't really go "away" to lose. They fight games to the last second. Some games last year cost me. |
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08-08-09, 01:45 PM
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#24
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As with all of us vreston, i lost the sheff wed bet cos Barnsley never gave up. Ah well, a winning start to the thread anyway
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08-09-09, 12:19 PM
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#25
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Eyeing up Leeds away to Darlo as a good bet for Tuesday night in the Carling Cup
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08-10-09, 05:44 AM
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#26
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The Leeds Game is tonight and i am putting a UNIT on leeds @ -125. 1 Unit to win 0.8 Units
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08-10-09, 11:41 AM
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#27
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Ireland - Euro 2012 Winners
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smogs
The Leeds Game is tonight and i am putting a UNIT on leeds @ -125. 1 Unit to win 0.8 Units
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I was thinking of putting money on Leeds myself and I have just officially done so. Best of luck to everyone betting on the game!
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08-10-09, 11:44 AM
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#28
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Hey good luck man, it's in front of the sky cameras so looking forward to watching
If Beckford and Bechio start, they will struggle not to score
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08-10-09, 11:53 AM
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#29
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Weekly Recap
The thread made a good....make that great, start. Up 2.3 units before the saturday football left me in good spirits.
Saturday was a mixed bag but luckily my improvement in money management saved me from making a loss as the 1.5 units on rotherham saved me from the 1 unit loss on Sheff Wed.
Mixed feelings there as Sheff Wed threw away a 2 goal lead but Rotherham scored a last minute winner, so we shall shrug our shoulders and be glad to leave the weekend in profit.
I left out Cardiff and WBA as bets but that actually saved me money as Cardiff had less than even odds.
By picking out games, then evaluating them by thursday and finally making a last cut by friday night helped me take out a loser as well as a winner so given the time, i think i can be even more correct in my picks.
Ante-post wise i am very happy with the weekend. Chopra scored 2 and is now as low as 6/1 (i got him at 16/1) to finish league top scorer
Cardiff also as a team started positive given the enormous amount of units i have on them at the end of the season.
I rarely bet midweek but tonight's carling cup fixture has to be bet on imo. Leeds started strongly on Saturday whereas Darlo did not, leaving me to think the same can happen tonight
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08-10-09, 06:37 PM
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#30
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Another winner thanks to an 1-0 Leeds win
3.1 Units up |
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08-10-09, 07:00 PM
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#31
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nice hit today smogs... i caught the game on justin.tv .... I bet you are pretty pumped now that the premiership is about to get going
hands down the best time of the year.. when Football and Football are both starting, ahhh...Puts a smile on my face in the morning...
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08-11-09, 12:36 AM
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#32
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Hey smogs. what are carling cup matches are you looking at tomorrow?
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08-11-09, 03:41 AM
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#33
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Ireland - Euro 2012 Winners
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I'd say West Brom should beat Bury
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08-11-09, 06:26 AM
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#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarinouofm
nice hit today smogs... i caught the game on justin.tv .... I bet you are pretty pumped now that the premiership is about to get going<br>
<br>
<br>
hands down the best time of the year.. when Football and Football are both starting, ahhh...Puts a smile on my face in the morning...
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Absolutely Kmar - i love the fact we get football all day saturday and sunday and then when the NFL starts at 6pm GMT in England, it rounds off the perfect weekend.
Regarding tonight's matches, i will not be making a bet. Quite frankly i hate betting on cup markets, it was just such a good bet to get on Leeds last night given the matchup.
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08-11-09, 09:59 AM
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#35
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i do actually have a strong lean for tonight having looked it all over.
I have a mate who is a Rochdale fan and he is fully expecting them to get battered tonight at Sheff wed. They also have a shocking record in the cups and just lost their best player. I will wait till later but it might be worth a unit despite them being low odds at 1/2
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