[Kareem]

Gonna treat myself to a personal thread. Everyone is of course welcome to join in, but will post quite a bit, so this'll help keep things nice and clean. Plus it'll be easier for all, in the future, to avoid the thread with a -1000 units record

Settled selections from "weekend action" thread:
RC Deportivo La Coruna (+½) 2.00@Pinnacle
Køge BK 1.45@Interwetten
FC København 1.75@Ladbrokes

RC Deportivo La Coruna 1:1
Køge BK 3:2
FC København 3:1

YTD 3-0 +2.20

[Kareem]

WEEKEND
Danish Superliga, November 11th:
Brøndby IF 1.55@Interwetten

German 1st Bundesliga, Nov. 11th:
TSV Bayer 04 Leverkusen (0;+½) 1.85@Betinternet

Spanish Primera Division, Nov. 12th:
RRC Santander v Sevilla FC (Draw) 3.52@Mansion Exchange

Scottish Premier League, Nov. 13th.
Falkirk FC (0) 3.00@Centrebet

Plus

Danish Superliga, November 12th:
FC København 1.95@Betsson

[Kareem]

PARLAY
Chelsea FC
Olympique Lyon
RSC Anderlecht
Alkmaar Z

Total 2.00@EuroBet

[Hulu]

Good luck Kareem. I'll be watching your thread with interest.

[nasdaq888]

Hey Kareem.....

I will also be going for Leverkusen (0/+0.5) today.....Bet365 is offering 1.90 on Leverkusen.

[Kareem]

Hulu:

Nas: Thanks for the heads up. A bit surprised though, as I usually bet early, only when odds are "expected" to decrease. Thems the breaks

[Kareem]

Brøndby IF 3:1
TSV Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2:3
RRC Santander v Sevilla FC 0:0
FC København 1:0
Falkirk FC 1:1

Chelsea FC 4:0
Olympique Lyon 2:1
RSC Anderlecht 2:0
Alkmaar Z 5:0


P/L 4-1-1 +4.02
YTD 7-1-1 +6.22

[Kareem]

PARLAY
Chelsea
PSV Eindhoven
Standard Liége
Porto

Total 2.15@Betfred

[Kareem]

French Ligue 1
Rennes 2.00@Intertops
Toulouse (0;+½) 2.08@Ladbrokes

Dutch Eredivisie
AZ 2.50@Betfred

Danish Superliga
Randers v Brøndby (O2½) 1.97@Pinnacle

[Kareem]

Rennes 1:1
AZ 2:3
Toulouse 0:1
Randers v Brøndby 2:0

Chelsea 1:0
PSV 4:0
Standard 1:2
Porto 2:1


P/L 0-5 -5.00
YTD 7-6-1 +1.22

[Kareem]

Champions League
Benfica (-1) 2.04@VictorChandler
Werder v Chelsea (O2) 1.60@VictorChandler
Chelsea (0;+½) 1.83@Bet365
Olympiakos (+1) 2.02@VictorChandler

UEFA Cup
Club Brügge 2.30@Interwetten

[Kareem]

Betting correct score 0:0 in CSKA v Porto. Covering 1:1 just in case.

Price 5.83
Stake .4 unit

[Kareem]

CSKA v Porto 0:2
Benfica 3:1
Chelsea 0:1 (*2)
Olympiakos 0:2
Brugge 1:1


P/L 1-5 -3.36
YTD 8-11-1 -2.14


Compass waaay off at the moment. Time to tighten selection criterias.

[adriano]

CL is one of the hardest competitions to get good results betting. I still check the games from a betting perspective, but rarely bet any of them.

[Kareem]

CL is one of the hardest competitions to get good results betting. I still check the games from a betting perspective, but rarely bet any of them.

Very true. Something I pretty much already know, but laziness and greed got the better of me. Most selections from my recent 1-10 streak, could have easily been avoided, with more effort and less emotion. In hindsight.

[Kareem]

Middlesbrough (+1) 1.86@Pinnacle
Recreativo (0;+½) 1.90@StanJames

[Kareem]

Middlesbrough 1:2
Recreativo 2:0

[Kareem]

Scottish Premier League
Rangers (-1) 2.00@Ladbrokes

[Kareem]

Rangers 0:1


P/L 1-1-1 -.10
YTD 9-12-2 -2.24

[Kareem]

UEFA Champions League
Porto v Arsenal

CS 0:0 3.75@BlueSq/Ladbrokes
Under 2½ 1.40@BlueSq (5 Units)

[Kareem]

Porto v Arsenal 0:0


P/L 2-0 +4.75
YTD 11-12-2 +2.51

[Kareem]

German 1st Bundesliga
Nürnberg (0;+½) 1.94@10Bet
Dortmund (+½) 2.00@BetFred <-- Reg. H'cap +1

German 2nd Bundesliga
Unterhaching (+½) 2.13@Pinnacle

Scottish Premier League
Hibernian (+1) 1.75@Bet365
Motherwell (+1) 1.94@Pinnacle

Scottish 1st Division
Dundee (+½) 2.03@10Bet

[aceking]

UEFA Champions League
Porto v Arsenal

CS 0:0 3.75@BlueSq/Ladbrokes
Under 2½ 1.40@BlueSq (5 Units)

everybody had 0 goals ! blatant fix by Wenger.

[Kareem]

French Ligue 1
Monaco (+½) 2.05@StanJames

Italian Serie B
Juventus (U2½) Verona 2.02@Pinnacle
Mantova (U2) Albinoleffe 1.96@Pinnacle
Vicenza (U2) Triestina 1.87@Pinnacle

[Kareem]

Royal League
FC København 2.37@PaddyPower <-- Section "Sweden"


Nürnberg 0:0
Motherwell 1:4
Hibernian 0:3
Dundee 1:2
Juventus/Verona 1:0
Mantova/Albinoleffe 0:0
Vicenza/Triestina 3:0
Monaco 1:2

P/L 2½-5-½ 2.55

[Kareem]

Unterhaching 0:1
Dortmund 1:3
FC København 2:1


P/L 1-2 .63
YTD 14½-19-2½ .67

Sorry. Accidentally spilled draw-repellant all over my picks. Should've thrown some darts instead

[Checkerboard]

oops!

[Kareem]

UEFA CUP
Hapoel Tel-Aviv v Mlada Boleslav 4.45@Expekt [28%to35%]

Overview: Fifth and final round of the group stage. Mlada (Czech Republic) need a win, while Hapoel (Israel) advances with, minimum, a draw.

Analysis: No doubt subjective factors play a heavy role here. Both sides will of course be fully motivated, but it's a reasonable assumption to make, that with one side desperately needing a win, the risk of a draw decreases to 20%-25% (usual 26%-27%). That along with an exaggerated status as favorite for the hosts, makes it obvious (to me), value has been pushed heavily in favor of Mlada.

The accurate UEFA 5-year ranking clearly show, that the Czech league is better than the Israeli counterpart. Neither team is setting their respective leagues alight:

Hapoel 6-1-4 overall. Home record 4-0-2.
Mlada 9-3-5 overall. Away record 3-1-4.

It's a concern, that the Czech league shows a remarkable, and consistent, low away-win percentage of 20% (usual 26%-27%). There's no denying that. Also, the Israeli outfit has more European experience. However, Mlada are rested, desperately need a win, semi-decent away and regularly meet stronger opposition. Hapoel's home record (so far) is nothing to brag about.

Without having ever seen the two actually play, I'm willing to bet, that books have overreacted; fully expecting to lose more often than not. Based on stats, subjective factors and reading previous UEFA Cup match reports.

[Kareem]

H Tel-Aviv v M Boleslav 1:1


P/L 0-1 1.00
YTD 14½-20-2½ 1.67