[Vaughany]

Spain/Japan under 3 today

[i97g]

misread this initially my friend, thought it was an almost verbatim extrapolation of my post before it regarding a live bet.

you may have had the wrong thread, but you definitely hit that play, and hopefully hit you're pending one

How does nobody score with two goals 14' deep!!! BSSSSS

[spargament]

7/26
JJK Jyvaskyla PK (+110) .3u

[spargament]

Spain/Japan under 3 today

Nice pick V

[Vaughany]

Cheers man. On England/Senegal Under 2.5, 3 next

[spargament]

Added
Bratislava +.5 (+105) .2u

[Vaughany]

Got guaranteed £60 from Brazil game if both teams score, if no goals or one team scores I'll make £100

[spargament]

Got guaranteed £60 from Brazil game if both teams score, if no goals or one team scores I'll make £100

Yo you arb so hard it makes my mind implode thinking about it

[spargament]

7/26
JJK Jyvaskyla PK (+110) .3u =-.3u
Bratislava +.5 (+105) .2u=+.21u

One win, one loss total -.09u

[spargament]

To date: 9 wins, 2 draw, 5 losses

+3.2675u...

On the road for most of the day, and my phone doesn't cut the mustard, so we'll see if I can get a play or two out...leaning olhanense...hopefully more info to come

[spargament]

7/27 "Ghettorigged"

Vancouver ML +460 risk .05u
Vancouver +1 (-120) .1u
Monterrey PK (+115) .05u

[spargament]

Added
Van/RSL O2.5 (-110) risk .11u

[spargament]

I think the MLS game tonight has the potential to be a GREAT matchup tonight...the assumption that the Whitecaps can't win a game they don't defend well in has left a lot of lines for the game in shambles IMO

Looking heavily at Kashima in the J-League and Lens, Lens/Le Mans O2.5 for tomorrow.

[spargament]

ADDING HUGE PARLAY
Vancouver +1 (7/27)
Monterrey PK (7/27)
Kashima PK (7/28)
RC Lens PK (7/28)
Amkar Perm +.5 (7/28)

Risking .01u to win .1596u

[spargament]

7/27
Pending,Lost,Won (totals for unfinished but settled games included)
Vancouver ML +460 risk .05u
Vancouver +1 (-120) .1u
Monterrey PK (+115) .05u=-.05u [Lost to Monarcas 0-1]
Van/RSL O2.5 (-110) risk .11u= win .10u [Current score Van. 1- RSL 2]
5 Team Clusterfuck parlay risk .01u= -.01u [Loss by Monterrey]

2 losses, 1 win +.04u with two pending

[spargament]

Ahh, I forgot about you guys. My fault.

To date (in thread) 10 wins, 3 push, 8 losses +3.2575u

8/3 "Don't Call it a Comeback"
NY RedBull +.5 (-110) .3u
Club Tijuana PK (+100) .05u

[spargament]

ADDING:
NY RedBull PK (+160) .1u

[Vaughany]

My retarded soccer parlay of the week:

No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result 1 Arsenal Kiev Mura 05 v Arsenal Kiev (Draw No Bet) 09/08/2012 None -500 To Run 2 Liverpool -1.0 Liverpool v Gomel (Alternative Asian Handicap) 09/08/2012 None 1.30 To Run 3 Hannover 96 -1.0 Hannover 96 v St Patricks (Alternative Asian Handicap) 09/08/2012 None 1.22 To Run 4 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen v Ruch Chorzow (Draw No Bet) 09/08/2012 None -550 To Run 5 PSG -1.0 PSG v Lorient (Alternative Asian Handicap) 11/08/2012 None 1.525 To Run

Multiples Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns 5 folds 1 100.00 100.00 243.01

[spargament]

V I'm not so sure how dumb that parlay is. I gotta run to an appointment now, I should be back in about an hour. I'm gonna run all 5 through the algorithm that's been the main source of plays in this thread (and although the last few posted plays have fared just worse than even, plays I didn't post on days I didn't visit the forum/overall are still ahead big time), and I'll be sure to let you know what I come up with.

[spargament]

Arsenal Kiev PK - ~75% (win ~41% draw ~34%) however there is approximately an 18% disparity against you with the win prediction and the books odds for a Kiev win
Liverpool is a false favorite, with only a 44% chance of a win creating a 23% disparity between the prediction odds and the books odds for Liverpool on the ML. The books have the draw being approximately a 15% possibility while the algorithm has it at just over 50%...if the total line is 2.5, I would suggest playing that as opposed to a handicap or ML

Hannover looks sound, although in a parlay I'd almost always rather take the ML than a one goal spread despite the differential in loss of potential profit

Viktoria looks like a sound pick as well, although the odds you're getting for a PK for both that and Kiev are much less favorable than what my system reports as the average...-550 on an 84% likelihood (according to the system) screams mediocrity in terms of value to me.

PSG looks good even with the goal given away.

Overall, odds dictate you will win the parlay more often than not, but I wonder if you could have gotten better value at a different book and/or by playing different lines. Liverpool seems to be the biggest risk out of all 5..but seeing as you've already made the play, all I can do is wish you the BOL my friend





Ca$h that sumb!tch V

[spargament]

NY RedBull +.5 (-110) .3u loss -.3u
Club Tijuana PK (+100) .05u win+ .05u
NY RedBull PK (+160) .1u loss -.1u
11 wins, 3 push, 10 losses +2.9075u

8/7
America Natal PK (-130) risking .13 to win .1u
ABC Natal ML (+400) risking .025 to win .1u

[spargament]

Hitting an absolute snide on posted plays as of late. No excuses. Tweaks and cashed tickets WILL ensue.

America Natal PK (-130) risking .13 lost .13
ABC Natal ML (+400) risking .025 lost .025

11 wins, 3 push, 12 losses +2.7525u

[spargament]

8/8

Santos PK (-120) Risking .12u to win .1u
Santos ML (+150) Risking .1u to win .15u
Recife ML (+270) risking .037u to win .1u
Recife PK (+150) risking .1u to win .15u

[spargament]

Nice recovery day.

8/8

Santos PK (-120) Risking .12u won .1u
Santos ML (+150) Risking .1u won .15u
Recife ML (+270) risking .037u lost .037
Recife PK (+150) risking .1u lost .1

+.113u
To date: 13 wins, 3 push, 14 losses +2.8655u

[spargament]

8/9 They call me Sisyphus

Aaeslund PK (-110) risking .22u to win .2u
Aaeslund ML (+190) risking .1u to win .19u

[spargament]

3 Team Parlay
Young Boys ML, Anorthosis ML, Gent ML (+165) risking .0606u to win .1u

[spargament]

Also adding:

Ponte Preta PK (+110) risking .15u to win .165u
Liverpool/Gomel DRAW (+580) risking .01u to win .058u

[spargament]

Even more:
Anzhi PK (+100) risking .025u to win .025u
Metalurg/Tromso Over 2.5 (+115) risking .025u to win .02875u

[spargament]

Adding ONE last play, then listing all in same post for benefit of those reading the thread:
8/9 'They call me Sisyphus'
Ponte Preta ML (+190) risking .0526u to win .1u
Ponte Preta PK (+110) risking .15u to win .165u
Aaeslund PK (-110) risking .22u to win .2u
Aaeslund ML (+190) risking .1u to win .19u
Young Boys ML, Anorthosis ML, Gent ML (+165) risking .0606u to win .1u
Liverpool/Gomel DRAW (+580) risking .01u to win .058u
Anzhi PK (+100) risking .025u to win .025u
Metalurg/Tromso Over 2.5 (+115) risking .025u to win .02875u

[spargament]

APOEL needs to remember this isn't last year. And Aaeslund needs to remember that was only just a year ago. FML.

Everything besides that and the Over are scoreless...one goal so far in the Metallurg match

[Vaughany]

My retarded soccer parlay of the week:

No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result 1 Arsenal Kiev Mura 05 v Arsenal Kiev (Draw No Bet) 09/08/2012 None -500 To Run 2 Liverpool -1.0 Liverpool v Gomel (Alternative Asian Handicap) 09/08/2012 None 1.30 To Run 3 Hannover 96 -1.0 Hannover 96 v St Patricks (Alternative Asian Handicap) 09/08/2012 None 1.22 To Run 4 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen v Ruch Chorzow (Draw No Bet) 09/08/2012 None -550 To Run 5 PSG -1.0 PSG v Lorient (Alternative Asian Handicap) 11/08/2012 None 1.525 To Run

Multiples Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns 5 folds 1 100.00 100.00 243.01

So far so good...just need PSG -1 to hit this wknd. Will probably fucck up and draw or somethign!

[spargament]

Sisyphus indeed. Horrible day, and just got home from getting my car CRUSHED from behind by a dumbf*ck truck driver. Deciding whether I'm gonna claim a concussion that happened 5 hours later is responsible for my shitty picks lol

[spargament]

Apparently this concussion is a bit worse than I thought...I'm probably gonna be off SBR and capping for a little while..and for every single prick that thinks like I normally would about others that this is a result of trying to hide from shitty results, I can't blame you, but I absolutely still will...suck my god given gift. To the rest of you, hopefully you guys crush the books, contests and the like while I'm gone. I know I'm writing this like it'll be some huge hiatus, but I'm hoping it should only be a week or two. As I said before, ca$h some tickets for me boys (..and the few girls that do hang around this sausage fest)

[silvap]

Damn, feel better man, cheers!