Italy will not win this match. They are a poor counter team and won't get very many opportunities verse Spain in that respect anyway. Spain will control the tempo as they do in every game and their defenders of Ramos and Pique are very physical and will get under the skin of Bolatelli Cassano and Di Natali up front.
Spain is the most patient team you will see and I don't think they've allowed a goal in euro/wc play in the last 5 years, though I could be wrong. It would be wise to start Fabregas and not bring him off the bench here. Italy's defenders are dirty and will not be able to handle the quickness of Inesta and Navas and Pedro off the bench.
Torres could make an appearance if they struggle in the first half.
My problem with Italy is their defense. They sat back the entire time against the Germans and took their opportunities on the counter but they only got those chances because Phillip Lahm plays so far up the pitch, that Bollettelli exposed him. Pique never comes up. Ever. He sits back the whole time and you will never counter against spain.
Italy is also very slow in the midfield. Pirlo is great but him and Xavi are essentially the same player, at this point in their careers, Xavi is undoubtedly the better player. Casillas and Buffon probably the two best keepers in the business. I just think the idea of sitting back and hanging out in the box is not smart from the Italians because you have guys on spain that are more than capable of scoring from outside the box. Xabi Alonso, Fabregas, and Ramos are all big strikers from distance.
Germany is an in-the-box kind of team. Headers, and passing in the box. Once Italy went up 1-0 they pretty much packed it in and dared Germany to shoot from the outside. Spain will punish them if they give them that space.
Italy just doesn't have the creativity it takes to beat a team like Spain. They are too methodical.
Good luck whatever you decide.