[Italy Serie-A] Cagliari-Catania Over 2.5 [+105]
Cagliari will be playing with their back-up goal keeper today as their starter is out with an injured hand. At home, Cagliari have tallied multiple goals in five of their last six. They do have a couple clean sheets in that stretch, but overall have not had one in their last five league matches. Catania has conceded at least once in nine of their last ten road matches in Serie-A with multiple goals allowed in four of those. Catania have managed to score in eight of their last ten on the road. They have two goals in three of their last five overall. Five of the last six Cagliari home matches have hit OVER 2.5.
[Champions League] Barcelona-Chelsea Under 3 [+100]
Given that the game plan is probably going to be similar to the first leg: Chelsea defends. Barcelona dominates possession ... I'm going with the under. Sure, Barca could open the flood gates and crush it, but they come into this match in a rare vein of poor form with two straight losses. Their confidence is always high, but the longer this match goes without a goal - the more pressure that mounts on the home side. I don't think Chelsea's plan changes even if Barca scores early, in fact it may see them dig in deeper as they'll probably look more to play for extra time rather than try to spring for a goal to recapture the aggregate lead. And if Barca should jump out to a big lead [2-0], it's probable they could then just play keep away to protect their lead. Anywho, that's my two cents.