[TonyDimy]

Some idi...ehm...someone removed my thread. I hit 3 out of 3 yesterday 2u bets, so we should all say thanks to moderator. Today's picks:

#1
Genoa - Lazio/ TO 2.5 @ 1.99 (2u)

#2
Sevilla - Villareal/ Villareal +0.5 @ 2.08 (2u)

[baskets]

they been scoring goals in Genoa matches like they're going out of style. lol, whatever happened to stingy, nickel-and-dime Italian soccer

[TonyDimy]

I'm sure it's coach's thing. A few weeks ago Genoa were playing Udinise at home, losing 0-1 at HT. During half time something changed, as they began to play super agressive and won the game 3-2. And it looks like they are trying to understand where this strategy lead them. They've lost to Palermo 5-3, to Inter 3-1 in the cup, but won against Napoli at home. 2-2 it's a pretty good result, especially against those teams. I just can't see how exactly Lazio will be supressing Genoa's offense. And at the same time, I'm sure that Lazio will score at least a goal.

As for the second game. Villareal obviously is getting better. If you put aside their poor perfomance in Madrid against Athletico, they managed to play 2-2 against Valencia (and Villareal was very unlucky that day), they crushed Gijon 3-0, they didn't concede a single goal from Barca (tired or not). Not my best bet, but the odds are pretty good even with +0.5h

[TonyDimy]

edit...

[TonyDimy]

Five in a row. Go Giants

5-0 since I started

[TonyDimy]

Monday pick #1
Gyor - Metalist Kharkov/ TO 3.0 @ 2.06 (2u)

I don't know much about Gyor, only their stats. 5 of their last 6 games went over 3.5. But I do know Metalist. Ukrainians are very impressive this season. They have good offense (mostly brazilian players) but still they tend to concede at least a goal per game. I expect something like 1-4 in this game.

[TonyDimy]

1-2 @ 32' and the score held up. Couldn't believe my eyes. 49 free kicks, 11 yellow cards, 2 red ones. At least I got my money back.

Wolfsburg - B. Moenchengladbach/ TU 2.5 @ 1.99 (2u) 0-0
Man. City - Fulham/ Man. City -1.5 @ 1.91 (2u) 3-0
QPR - Wolves/ TO 2.5 @ 1.99 (2u) 1-2
Genoa - Lazio/ TO 2.5 @ 1.99 (2u) 3-2
Sevilla - Villareal/ Villareal +0.5 @ 2.08 (2u) 1-2
Metalist Kharkov - Gyor/ TO 3.0 @ 2.06 (2u) 2-1

5-0-1 (+9.92 units)

I'll post one more bet for today in a few hours. Didn't have much time to think things through.

[TonyDimy]

Monday pick #2
Liverpool - Tottenham/ Liverpool -0.5 @ 1.96 (2u)

I'm on Liverpool because of Gerrard and Suarez, because this is a key game for Liverpool, and because of the revenge factor (Tottenham won three in a row against Liverpool). And overall it looks like Liverpool is gaining his strength.

[TonyDimy]

GL to you too. This is the first time when we agree on something

[TonyDimy]

Don't like to bet on "good" teams, tonight's game showed exactly why. Good thing I locked Tottenham under 0.5 during half time @ 1.68, so my bankroll didn't suffer too much.

5-1-1 (+7.92 units) since I started
0-1-1 (-2 units) today

[TonyDimy]

Tuesday pick #1
Birmingham - Portsmouth/ Birmingham -1 @ 2.10 (2u)

#2
Holstein Kiel - Dortmund/ Dortmund under 2.5 @ 1.9 (2u)

[TonyDimy]

Off the record:
Parlay
Dynamo Moscow - Sparta/ Dynamo +0.5
+ Renn - Evian/ Renn to advance
@ 1.91 (1.5u)

and I also locked Zenit - Benfica over 2.5 @ 2.12 next week

[TonyDimy]

BTW, any particular reason for picking under 2.5 on dortmund's game? important missings for them?

I watched every Dortmund's cup game. I'm sure they will try to outclass Kiel without wasting their energy because they have a game against Bayer in 3 days. On the other hand, Kiel won against Duisburg, Energy and Mainz without conceding a single goal, so they have an ability to defend well. Especially at their home stadium. And it's Dormund under 2.5, not the game's Total, in case you hadn't noticed.

I'm not sure how good rennes are but I might try Evian to go through

I can't really answer on this one though. Maybe you're right. I'm not a big fan of french football. That's why this is bet is 'off the record' and just 1.5u. Of course I want to cash this one, but I've marked this bet as doubtful from the beginning. Dynamo is losing at halftime 0-1 to Sparta. They have Kevin Kuranyi, Andrei Voronin and Dzsudzsak in their offensive line, but didn't manage to score a single goal against Sparta so far. I hope things will change in the second half.

[TonyDimy]

Parlay
Dynamo Moscow - Sparta/ Dynamo +0.5
+ Renn - Evian/ Renn to advance
@ 1.91 (1.5u)

Dynamo Moscow - Sparta/ 1-1
Rennes - Evian/ 3-2
+1.33u

It was an amazing game in France, I really enjoyed watching it. The final score should be like 6-5 or something I think I need to keep track of my 'off the record' bets too, so I'm going to mark them as "Y" (as WHY, right?). I'm not going to mix them with my main record, so from now on there will be two separate sections: A-picks and Y-picks. I'm doing this for myself, sorry if it looks dumb.

A: 5-1-1 (+7.92u)
Y: 1-0-0 (+1.33u)

[TonyDimy]

Well, I don't have much info on Sheffield and Blackpool. I'm not talking about stats, but I didn't have a chance to watch those teams in action for a very long time. I remember them playing against each other last year in Championship or League Cup, I picked Sheffield +0.5 back then, and the final score was 0-0 if I'm not mistaken, but Blackpool was playing way better. I don't really know what happened to both of those team from then. So I don't think I'm the right guy to ask for opinion. If you want me to say something, I'd say "pick Blackpool", but it's mostly because I have good memories about them. And Southampton in Reg. looks like a solid pick, but I don't want to bet it @ 1.66

And by 'England League' you mean EPL? I will definitely look into that, but later (friday or saturday morning). Stay tuned

Sorry it took me so long to answer, both games are already started

[TonyDimy]

0-2 at 17' in Kiel - Dortmund, not a good start at all

[TonyDimy]

Tuesday pick #1
Birmingham - Portsmouth/ Birmingham -1 @ 2.10 (2u)

#2
Holstein Kiel - Dortmund/ Dortmund under 2.5 @ 1.9 (2u)

Birmingham - Portsmouth/ 1-0 could've been better
Holstein Kiel - Dortmund/ 0-4 my bad

Today -0.67u

Overall:
A: 5-2-2 (+5.92u)
Y: 1-0-0 (+1.33u)

[TonyDimy]

02.08
A#1
Milan - Juventus/ TU2.5 @ 1.78 (2.5u)

I have a lean towards Gladbach @ Herta but I need to be sure that Reus and Hanke will be playing, so this bet is going to be a late one. I have a few other leans, but I need to gather more info before I'll lock them.

[TonyDimy]

Y#2 Parlay
Catania - Roma/ TO 2.5 (they will have about 30 minutes to score a goal, I think it's plenty of time)
Barca - Valencia/ Barca over 1.5
@ 2.38 (1.5u)

Just like I said, I'm going to mark my dumb bets as "Y". So this parlay is a dumb one. I don't like Barca and I don't like betting on them, but I needed something to increase the odds and Barca over 1.5 looked like an easiest pick today.

[TonyDimy]

A#3
Milan - Juventus/ Juve +0.5 @ 1.67 (2u)

There's a lot of injuries in Milan. Merkel, Pato, Cassano, Boateng, Aquilani will not play today. And Ibra is not that good this season. Juve have the best defence in the league and I couldn't think of any injured players on their side.

[TonyDimy]

Y#4 Parlay
Herta - B. Moenchengladbach/ Gladbach to advance
Zambia - Ghana/ TO 1.5
@ 2.46 (1.5u)

That's it for today. Maybe one more pick later.

[TonyDimy]

02.08
A#1
Milan - Juventus/ TU2.5 @ 1.78 (2.5u)

Y#2 Parlay
Catania - Roma/ TO 2.5 (they will have about 30 minutes to score a goal, I think it's plenty of time)
Barca - Valencia/ Barca over 1.5
@ 2.38 (1.5u)

A#3
Milan - Juventus/ Juve +0.5 @ 1.67 (2u)

Y#4 Parlay
Herta - B. Moenchengladbach/ Gladbach to advance
Zambia - Ghana/ TO 1.5
@ 2.46 (1.5u)

A#5
Kuban - Gyor/ Both to score @ 1.71 (1.5u)

Sorry for multiposting, can't organise my thoughts today for some reason.

[TonyDimy]

A#6
Herta - B. Moenchengladbach/ Gladbach to advance @ 1.60 (2.5u)

Reus and Hanke are playing, go Gladbach!

[TonyDimy]

02.08
A#1
Milan - Juventus/ TU2.5 @ 1.78 (2.5u) 1-2, -2.5u

Y#2 Parlay
Catania - Roma/ TO 2.5 1-1
Barca - Valencia/ Barca over 1.5 ---
@ 2.38 (1.5u) -1.5u

A#3
Milan - Juventus/ Juve +0.5 @ 1.67 (2u) 1-2, +1.34u

Y#4 Parlay
Herta - B. Moenchengladbach/ 0-2
Zambia - Ghana/ TO 1.5 1-0
@ 2.46 (1.5u) -1.5u

A#5
Kuban - Gyor/ Both to score @ 1.71 (1.5u) 3-1, +1.05u

A#6
Herta - B. Moenchengladbach/ Gladbach to advance @ 1.60 (2.5u) 0-2, +1.5u

My bet-sizing sucks. How did I end up losing money when I've hit 3 out of my 4 'A' picks? I need to think about it. I'm telling you, there's something wrong with my head today. I couldn't lock any of my good leans and I chose some easy ones instead with lower value.

Today -1.61u
A: 3-1-0 (+1.39u)
Y: 0-2-0 (-3u)

Overall:
A: 8-3-2 (+7.31u)
Y: 1-2-0 (-1.67u)

[TonyDimy]

you should make higher wagers on sides rather than totals... so 2.5x on Juve and 2x on the under (especially for unders)

Yep. And I should make lower wagers on my 'Y' bets, especially if I call them "dumb ones" And just like EP has a magnet for red cards, I have a magnet for missed penalties. If only Gyan would score...nah, I don't like to be a crybaby. Better luck next time, right?

[TonyDimy]

Not many games to choose from today. I picked three of them and that's probably it.
A#1
CSKA - Timisoara/ One of the teams will NOT score @ 1.90 (2u)
This one is pretty easy one. I don't think Timisoara will be able to do something with CSKA'a defence and CSKA have almost no offensive line this days (Vagner Love was transfered to Flamengo and Doumbia is still playing in African Nations Cup). Alan Dzagoev might score one, though. I think the score will be like 1-0 or 2-0. The game starts in 4 hours.

A#2
Lazio - Cesena/ TO 2.5 @ 2.12 (1.5u)
Lazio have the ability to cover this 'over' without Cesena's help, especially after their miserable performance against Genoa last weekend. And Cesena while losing to every solid team, still have an ability to score at least a goal. 1-5 against Roma, 1-4 against Udinese, 1-2 against Napoli, those are latest Cesena's ROAD games. I expect to see something like that today too.

Y#3
Siena - Napoli/ DRAW @ 3.25 (1u)
I really like this one. Napoli have never won on the road against Siena. And Napoli don't usually play well when there's a CL game on the horizon. Their games are usually under 2.5, so I expect something like 0-0 or 1-1 today. Of course there's a chance that Siena will win this game. This is the first leg in Italy Cup semi finals, and most likely Siena will try to win so they would have a chance @ Napoli in the second leg. But it's a risk I'm willing to take.

[karajohn13]

Not many games to choose from today. I picked three of them and that's probably it.
A#1
CSKA - Timisoara/ One of the teams will NOT score @ 1.90 (2u)
This one is pretty easy one. I don't think Timisoara will be able to do something with CSKA'a defence and CSKA have almost no offensive line this days (Vagner Love was transfered to Flamengo and Doumbia is still playing in African Nations Cup). Alan Dzagoev might score one, though. I think the score will be like 1-0 or 2-0. The game starts in 4 hours.

A#2
Lazio - Cesena/ TO 2.5 @ 2.12 (1.5u)
Lazio have the ability to cover this 'over' without Cesena's help, especially after their miserable performance against Genoa last weekend. And Cesena while losing to every solid team, still have an ability to score at least a goal. 1-5 against Roma, 1-4 against Udinese, 1-2 against Napoli, those are latest Cesena's ROAD games. I expect to see something like that today too.

Y#3
Siena - Napoli/ DRAW @ 3.25 (1u)
I really like this one. Napoli have never won on the road against Siena. And Napoli don't usually play well when there's a CL game on the horizon. Their games are usually under 2.5, so I expect something like 0-0 or 1-1 today. Of course there's a chance that Siena will win this game. This is the first leg in Italy Cup semi finals, and most likely Siena will try to win so they would have a chance @ Napoli in the second leg. But it's a risk I'm willing to take.

Great choices, I'm only a little bit afraid of NG at CSKA - Timisoara Game
GL anyway