[imzdeals]

I've been doing well for the past couple months so I decided to make a thread to share my picks. It's all sports, not only soccer.

[imzdeals]

I'll mostly be posting 5dimes odds, and I will be using the reduced odds if they are available

Nadal -140 (1.4/1)

[imzdeals]

Women's World Cup: Brazil -1 +125 (1/1.25)

I got these odds from Bodog (sometimes bodog does have better odds for some reason)

[imzdeals]

And here is the "it will never happen" parlay

nadal -2.5
brazil women 1st half
mls hou/col draw
mls sea/la over 2.5
copa america bra/ven over 3
mlb flo/tex under 9.5
mlb sf/det under 8.5

+22300

(.1/22.3)

[imzdeals]

ok tough loss on nadal today...moving on...assuming brazil women keep the lead:

Record: 1-2 (-0.25 units)

[imzdeals]

MLB : Dodgers under 7 +105 (1/1.05)

I'm laying off copa america today, but my lean would be brazil/venezuela over 3

[imzdeals]

Ok I'm adding another wager on the dodgers under. This is in addition to the last one, so total win would be 3.05 units

MLB : Dodgers under 7.5 -115 (2.3/2)

And one last play tonight

MLB : Rangers -1.5 +102 (1/1.02)

[imzdeals]

guys, i'm locking this play up right now - call it play of the week, play of the month, or whatever those touts call it. No BS gimmick here. I'm just saying i'm extremely confident in this play.

Peru don't have farfan or pizarro, and their team is made up of a lot of players who play club football in peru. They were at the bottom of the conmebol qualifying for the world cup. Uruguay are coming off a great world cup where they made the semis playing fine football. With Cavani coming off an amazing season with napoli and other quality players such as forlan, suarez, and hernandez, this is a no brainer. Add the fact that both argentina and brazil both draw against inferior opponents, the uruguyans will now show everyone which south american team went the furthest in WC2010. Also, there have been rumors that Forlan wants to go back to the premiership, with tottenham reportedly interested. He will show his quality against this bad Peru team, and maybe tottenham will be more eager to get the wallet out. By the way I already have a futures bet on uruguay to win the tournament at +1200 i think. I saw pretty good value on this and hopped on it about a week ago.


Copa America: Uruguay -1 -141 (42.3/30)

[imzdeals]

I know this is a long time from now, but this is a gift. I watched every Texans game last season and here is the general consensus: offense is pretty good, defense is pure shit. They did draft JJ Watt from Wisconsin but I doubt he will have much of an impact during Week 1. I don't care how many preseason games he plays, he will not be ready for the real thing. Now I might be wrong and Wade Phillips will put together a legendary defense in the offseason but I don't think so. No joke, if the Texans had a mediocre defensive unit they could have gone in the 10-6 range last season and made a push for the playoffs. Exhibit A: Mark Sanchez carries his team down the entire field in about 45 seconds and then throws a game winning touchdown. Exhibit B: Game tied, looks like it's going to overtime. David Garrard throws a 50 yd hail mary, and the dumbass Texans cornerback swats it straight into the receiver's hands. Game over. Exhibit C: Texans winning comfortable 17-0 at half time. Then Tim Tebow (yes, Tim Tebow) leads a 2nd half comeback. I swear the Texans defense made Tebow look like Peyton Manning. Texans were 4-4 at home last year. 1 of those wins was against the Titans, 1 against Jacksonville on the last game of the season, and 1 against the Colts in the opening game last year. If you think the Texans will win the opening game against the Colts 2 seasons in a row you have another thing coming. Let's get one thing straight; the Colts have made the playoffs every year since 2002. The Texans have never made the playoffs. I don't bet on streaks to end, I bet on streaks to continue. The Colts make the playoffs again, and they start the season with a routine win. Anyone who bets on baseball you know exactly what I'm talking about. Yes, Arian Foster is now one of the top backs in the league, but last year he came out of nowhere and stunned everyone. No surprises this year. The fact is that the Colts are the #1 passing team in the league and the Texans have the worst passing defense in the league. Even if the Texans are up 21-0 at halftime I will not be worried. No one knows the unbelievable lack of bottle in this Texans team like I do. Take the Colts and then buy yourself a new watch.

NFL Week 1 : Colts pk -110 (33/30)

Of course this is all assuming there is actually an NFL season, which I am pretty sure there will be.

[imzdeals]

updated record: 2-3 (+1.8 units)

Looking forward to the big one today, let's go uruguay! In case anyone was wondering, my unit size is not a percentage of bankroll, it is a predetermined amount. There is no way I bet 42% of my BR on one bet. If I am extremely confident, the most I put is 10% of BR.

[imzdeals]

one in finland in a couple hours

Finland Veikkausliiga: HJK vs KuPS under 2.5,3 goals -1.02 (1.02/1)

[imzdeals]

the yankees rattled off 7 straight wins until they lost to the mets yesterday in 10 innings. After losing money this year by fading the yankees and red sox, i have decided never to fade them again for the rest of the year. I am betting the yankees to beat the indians, and I will be chasing this if the indians win, betting that they win 1 out of 3. I am splitting the bet to take care of the juice

MLB: Yankees -1 +101 (.5/.505)
Yankees -2.5 +200 (.5/1)

[SportGTI]

Hey imzdeals. I've been reading your thread and came up on your bet for the Finland Veikkausliiga. I was looking to place a bet and was wondering what your thoughts were for the under in the HJK vs KuPS match. Thanks in advance, and gl with your picks.

The reason I ask, the two have already played twice in 11 and both games have gone over (5 goals and 7 goals respectively).

[imzdeals]

SportGTI, when I look at matches I generally don't put much consideration into past head to head match ups between the same teams. This usually does not tell you much (one exception would be Arsenal v Tottenham in the premiership. When these 2 play each other, if you are going to bet anything, ALWAYS bet the over). I also don't consider cup matches. The 7 goal match was a league cup match. The 5 goal match was in the league but it was 2 months ago. KuPS are a low scoring team at home (they have not scored over 2 this season). HJK are at the top of the league because they have been blowing out teams at home, and grinding out 1-0 or 2-0 wins on the road. HJK did beat Haka 5-0 while they were on the road, but that was coming off only 2 days rest. And on 2 days rest like that, the higher quality team will usually get the win, especially in a league like the Finnish league where the top 2-3 teams are completely in a different class.

[imzdeals]

ok guys, this Uruguay line is dropping like mad, it is getting me nervous. right now the -1 is at -114!! I guess they are expecting another low scoring/draw affair like the rest of the matches thus far. In this case, I am playing a slight hedge with the draw.

Copa America : Uruguay vs Peru DRAW +312 (14/43.7)

So if Uruguay wins by more than 1, we gain 16 units. If they win by 1, we drop 14 units. If it is a draw, we gain 1.4 units. If Peru wins, we're screwed. This thread is just to keep track of my bets, tail it at your own risk!!!

[SportGTI]

Thanks imz for the input. Great writeup and makes a lot of sense.

[imzdeals]

I'll mostly be posting 5dimes odds, and I will be using the reduced odds if they are available

Nadal -140 (1.4/1)

Women's World Cup: Brazil -1 +125 (1/1.25)

I got these odds from Bodog (sometimes bodog does have better odds for some reason)

And here is the "it will never happen" parlay

nadal -2.5
brazil women 1st half
mls hou/col draw
mls sea/la over 2.5
copa america bra/ven over 3
mlb flo/tex under 9.5
mlb sf/det under 8.5

+22300

(.1/22.3)

MLB : Dodgers under 7 +105 (1/1.05)

I'm laying off copa america today, but my lean would be brazil/venezuela over 3

Ok I'm adding another wager on the dodgers under. This is in addition to the last one, so total win would be 3.05 units

MLB : Dodgers under 7.5 -115 (2.3/2)

And one last play tonight

MLB : Rangers -1.5 +102 (1/1.02)

record: 2-3 (+1.8 units)

I'm thinking this is how I will format the thread, quote all of the bets with the "animated dance" for wins, and "duh" for losses. And I really don't care about win percentage, I only care about units gained. I hate when touts promote "65% winning percentage over the past week!!" without telling us the units gained. Yes, if you flat bet spreads/totals then that is good profit. If you are betting moneylines on baseball/soccer/etc. the winning percentage tells me nothing.

[imzdeals]

Wow i guess i was completely off with the finland pick, 2 goals within 33 minutes

Edit - now 3 goals in the first half

[imzdeals]

one in finland in a couple hours

Finland Veikkausliiga: HJK vs KuPS under 2.5,3 goals -1.02 (1.02/1)

updated record: 2-4 +0.78 units

[imzdeals]

guys, i'm locking this play up right now - call it play of the week, play of the month, or whatever those touts call it. No BS gimmick here. I'm just saying i'm extremely confident in this play.

Peru don't have farfan or pizarro, and their team is made up of a lot of players who play club football in peru. They were at the bottom of the conmebol qualifying for the world cup. Uruguay are coming off a great world cup where they made the semis playing fine football. With Cavani coming off an amazing season with napoli and other quality players such as forlan, suarez, and hernandez, this is a no brainer. Add the fact that both argentina and brazil both draw against inferior opponents, the uruguyans will now show everyone which south american team went the furthest in WC2010. Also, there have been rumors that Forlan wants to go back to the premiership, with tottenham reportedly interested. He will show his quality against this bad Peru team, and maybe tottenham will be more eager to get the wallet out. By the way I already have a futures bet on uruguay to win the tournament at +1200 i think. I saw pretty good value on this and hopped on it about a week ago.


Copa America: Uruguay -1 -141 (42.3/30)

ok guys, this Uruguay line is dropping like mad, it is getting me nervous. right now the -1 is at -114!! I guess they are expecting another low scoring/draw affair like the rest of the matches thus far. In this case, I am playing a slight hedge with the draw.

Copa America : Uruguay vs Peru DRAW +312 (14/43.7)

So if Uruguay wins by more than 1, we gain 16 units. If they win by 1, we drop 14 units. If it is a draw, we gain 1.4 units. If Peru wins, we're screwed. This thread is just to keep track of my bets, tail it at your own risk!!!

And the draws continue....at least we hedged and got a profit....3-5 +2.18 units

[imzdeals]

just for kicks let's roll with this streak and bet the draw in 3 matches tonight. Also lets take Seattle +.5. Galaxy are too big of a favorite for my liking. Donovan on his first match back from gold cup, i don't see him making much of an impact.

Copa America: mex/chile DRAW +283 (.5/1.41)
MLS : ne/rsl DRAW +352 (.5/1.76)
MLS : la/sea DRAW +259 (.5/1.29)
MLS : Seattle +.5 -109 (2.18/2)

[imzdeals]

and one more pick for tonight. let's back the angels on the under again tonight

MLB: Angels/Tigers UNDER 8.5 -107 (2.14/2)

[imzdeals]

the yankees rattled off 7 straight wins until they lost to the mets yesterday in 10 innings. After losing money this year by fading the yankees and red sox, i have decided never to fade them again for the rest of the year. I am betting the yankees to beat the indians, and I will be chasing this if the indians win, betting that they win 1 out of 3. I am splitting the bet to take care of the juice

MLB: Yankees -1 +101 (.5/.505)
Yankees -2.5 +200 (.5/1)

just for kicks let's roll with this streak and bet the draw in 3 matches tonight. Also lets take Seattle +.5. Galaxy are too big of a favorite for my liking. Donovan on his first match back from gold cup, i don't see him making much of an impact.

Copa America: mex/chile DRAW +283 (.5/1.41)
MLS : ne/rsl DRAW +352 (.5/1.76)
MLS : la/sea DRAW +259 (.5/1.29)
MLS : Seattle +.5 -109 (2.18/2)

and one more pick for tonight. let's back the angels on the under again tonight

MLB: Angels/Tigers UNDER 8.5 -107 (2.14/2)

A missed penalty by seattle actually ends up helping. Missed penalties always seem to burn me. I'll take it!!! Amazing amount of draws in the mls lately

7-7 +7.73 units

[imzdeals]

Let's lock in the yankees for tomorrow. As I said I am chasing them to win against the indians. I'm usually not a fan of chasing, I don't really think it's profitable in the long run because one series loss will hammer you. On the other hand i fully expect the yankees to win 1 out of 3 against the indians. Look for jeter to get a couple hits, he will be anxious to get to his milestone at yankee stadium before the break. With CC pitching we are in an even better spot and I believe this line will easily go to -160 by tomorrow afternoon. At -149 it's a bargain. CC is 11-4 this year, and 3 of those losses are against the red sox. Red sox are also the only team to sweep the yanks this season. Carrasco did shut them out at yankee stadium earlier this year, don't expect him to do it again. I will probably also put a small wager on the runline tomorrow.

MLB: Yankees -149 (2.98/2)

[imzdeals]

I won't play the runline, let's just keep this 2 unit bet on the yanks. If you want to avoid the juice i would suggest taking first 5 innings at -110.

[twelvejewelz]

Let's lock in the yankees for tomorrow. As I said I am chasing them to win against the indians. I'm usually not a fan of chasing, I don't really think it's profitable in the long run because one series loss will hammer you. On the other hand i fully expect the yankees to win 1 out of 3 against the indians. Look for jeter to get a couple hits, he will be anxious to get to his milestone at yankee stadium before the break. With CC pitching we are in an even better spot and I believe this line will easily go to -160 by tomorrow afternoon. At -149 it's a bargain. CC is 11-4 this year, and 3 of those losses are against the red sox. Red sox are also the only team to sweep the yanks this season. Carrasco did shut them out at yankee stadium earlier this year, don't expect him to do it again. I will probably also put a small wager on the runline tomorrow. MLB: Yankees -149 (2.98/2)

Wouldnt it make sense to have chased the indians at + money instead of -150 to begin with if you think they yankees will only win 1 out of 3?

[imzdeals]

I worded it wrong, I meant to say that I think the yankees will win at least 1 out of 3; not only 1 out of 3.

[imzdeals]

Ok the yankees have started out strong with jeter already getting 2 hits. Lets add a play in the late game between tigers and angels. I've been backing the angels under for the past two nights. With Verlander pitching for detroit, the under seems almost too easy. 6 is a scary number though, so I'm taking H+R+E under:

MLB: Angels/Tiger Total H+R+E UNDER 22.5 -110 (1.1/1)

[imzdeals]

Let's lock in the yankees for tomorrow. As I said I am chasing them to win against the indians. I'm usually not a fan of chasing, I don't really think it's profitable in the long run because one series loss will hammer you. On the other hand i fully expect the yankees to win 1 out of 3 against the indians. Look for jeter to get a couple hits, he will be anxious to get to his milestone at yankee stadium before the break. With CC pitching we are in an even better spot and I believe this line will easily go to -160 by tomorrow afternoon. At -149 it's a bargain. CC is 11-4 this year, and 3 of those losses are against the red sox. Red sox are also the only team to sweep the yanks this season. Carrasco did shut them out at yankee stadium earlier this year, don't expect him to do it again. I will probably also put a small wager on the runline tomorrow.

MLB: Yankees -149 (2.98/2)

Ok the yankees have started out strong with jeter already getting 2 hits. Lets add a play in the late game between tigers and angels. I've been backing the angels under for the past two nights. With Verlander pitching for detroit, the under seems almost too easy. 6 is a scary number though, so I'm taking H+R+E under:

MLB: Angels/Tiger Total H+R+E UNDER 22.5 -110 (1.1/1)

2-0 today

record: 9-7 +10.73 units

[OneTipster]

Perfect!

[imzdeals]

Unders have been hitting at a high rate in baseball lately, and I expect it to continue today. My lean is for the Dodgers to win tonight, but their poor offense has me nervous about making that bet. I'm a big fan of Kuroda, his ERA is under 3, and he was looking very good when he shut out the Angels a few days ago. He has the same ERA as CC and lower ERA than players such as cliff lee and lincecum. Unfortunately he has a losing record. If he was on another team with a middling offense he would easily have a winning record and considered one of the top ten pitchers in the league. The Dodgers have made a habit of getting anywhere between 0-3 runs on a daily basis recently. Expect the poor Dodgers offense to continue, and expect Kuroda to keep the Mets in check.

MLB: Dodgers/Mets Total H+R+E UNDER 24 -110 (4.4/4)

Also, let's go ahead and bet 1st half draws in the MLS today - as I said the MLS has been a draw machine. With my luck, last minute goals usually burn me. I'm betting 1st half draws, so I can avoid seeing a 95th minute goal go in to ruin a draw.

ALL MLS 1st HALF DRAWS
tor/ny +158 (.5/.79)
col/kc +109 (.5/.54)
columbus/van +100 (.5/.5)
chivas/sj +110 (.5/.55)

[OneTipster]

Thank you imzdeals!

I want to send you points but I can't.

"We could not award this user points. This person may not be allowed to receive points or you do not have enough points."

[imzdeals]

not sure...maybe because i'm not a sbr pro?

[imzdeals]

Unders have been hitting at a high rate in baseball lately, and I expect it to continue today. My lean is for the Dodgers to win tonight, but their poor offense has me nervous about making that bet. I'm a big fan of Kuroda, his ERA is under 3, and he was looking very good when he shut out the Angels a few days ago. He has the same ERA as CC and lower ERA than players such as cliff lee and lincecum. Unfortunately he has a losing record. If he was on another team with a middling offense he would easily have a winning record and considered one of the top ten pitchers in the league. The Dodgers have made a habit of getting anywhere between 0-3 runs on a daily basis recently. Expect the poor Dodgers offense to continue, and expect Kuroda to keep the Mets in check.

MLB: Dodgers/Mets Total H+R+E UNDER 24 -110 (4.4/4)

Also, let's go ahead and bet 1st half draws in the MLS today - as I said the MLS has been a draw machine. With my luck, last minute goals usually burn me. I'm betting 1st half draws, so I can avoid seeing a 95th minute goal go in to ruin a draw.

ALL MLS 1st HALF DRAWS
tor/ny +158 (.5/.79)
col/kc +109 (.5/.54)
columbus/van +100 (.5/.5)
chivas/sj +110 (.5/.55)

Bad day as the sixth inning screws us in the baseball. In MLS we end up breaking even pretty much

Updated record: 11-10 +6.38 units

[imzdeals]

Let's go ahead and take Botafogo and the over in the same game. They have made a habit of games going "over" when playing against opponents in the bottom half of the table. I expect something like 4-1. Let's also take the other 2 matches in Brazil tonight. I like the over in all 3 matches; let's expect to hit 2 out of 3.

Let's also take the Angels under again and the Angels to win tonight at home with Weaver pitching. The Mariners are a bad team at pretty much .500, they should be well under .500 in my opinion. Ichiro has the highest BA on the team with .274. Angels are heavy favorites so I'll take the -1 run line.

Brazil: Botafogo -1 -132 (1.32/1)
Brazil: Botafogo/Atletico Goianiense OVER 2.5,3 +100 (3/3)
Brazil: Coritiba/Figueirense OVER 2.5,3 -115 (1.15/1)
Brazil: America Mineiro/Palmeiras OVER 2.5 -120 (1.2/1)

MLB: Angels/Mariners UNDER 6 -102 (2.04/2)
MLB: Angels -1 -127 (1.27/1)