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  1. #1

    When the draw is favored in an Italian match

    I have a lot of time on my hands this afternoon so I went back 3 years on Italian matches where the draw is the favorite (+110 or lower)

    Score and draw odds listed

    Serie A
    2010-2011
    Today
    Udinese-AC Milan 0:0 -103
    5/15/2011
    Napoli - Inter 1:1 -108
    Grosseto-Reggina 0:1 -185
    5/8/2011
    Bologna-Parma 0:0 -303
    4/23/2011
    Bologna -Cesena 0:2 -128
    4/3/2011
    Chievo-Sampdoria 0:0 -192

    2009-2010
    5/9/2010
    Bologna-Catania 1:1 -154
    5/2/2010
    Bari-Genoa 3:0 -105
    Cagliari-Udinese 2:2 -130
    4/11/2010
    Bologna-Lazio 2:3 -204
    3/28/2010
    Chievo-Parma 0:0 +100

    2008-2009
    5/24/2009
    Chievo-Bologna 0:0 -159

    8 out of 12 Draws
    9 out of 12 Under

    Hitting at a very good clip, unders too

  2. #2

    thanks for the notes... I actually thought the % was lower than that..

  3. #3

    Serie B
    2010-2011
    5/21/2011
    Crotone-Grosseto 0:0 -333
    5/14/2011
    Vicenza-Pescara 2:2 -103
    5/11/2011
    Albinoleffe-Reggina 1:3 +100
    5/7/2011
    Empoli-Albinoleffe 3:1 -114
    Modena-Grosseto 1:1 -217
    Siena-Torino 2:2 -256
    5/1/2011
    Novara-Siena 2:2 -127
    4/30/2011
    Cittadella-Modena 1:1 +106
    Vicenza-Crotone 1:2 +100
    4/29/2011
    Livorno-Atalanta 2:1 -109
    4/22/2011
    Crotone-Atalanta 2:2 -135
    4/16/2011
    Grosseto-Siena 0:1 -119
    Sassuolo-Varese 1:1 +106
    4/11/2011
    Modena-Atalanta 1:2 -149
    4/9/2011
    Piacenza-Pescara 0:2 -106
    4/8/2011
    Empoli-Novara 0:0 -103
    4/2/2011
    Empoli-Padova 2:2 -154
    Pescara-Crotone 1:0 -132
    Sassuolo-Albinoleffe 1:0 -101
    3/26/2011
    Padova-Atalanta 1:1 -238
    12/20/2010
    Albinoleffe-Piacenza 3:3 -217

    12 out of 21 draws when -150 or higher 6 out of 6 draws
    10 out of 21 unders

    2009-2010
    5/30/2010
    Frosinone-Triestina 2:2 100
    Lecce-Sassuolo 0:0 -500
    5/23/2010
    Grosseto-Reggina 2:2 106
    Vicenza-Lecce 0:0 -256
    5/15/2010
    Piacenza-Triestina 0:0 -182
    5/14/2010
    Lecce-Cesena 1:2 -159
    5/1/2010
    Piacenza-Vicenza 1:1 -141
    4/30/2010
    Ancona-Grosseto 1:1 -122
    4/24/2010
    Ascoli-Piacenza 1:1 102
    4/17/2010
    Modena-Albinoleffe 1:1 -115
    4/13/2010
    Crotone-Modena 4:2 -152
    4/10/2010
    Modena-Sassuolo 1:1 102
    3/27/2010
    Modena-Piacenza 0:1 -115
    Triestina-Padova 2:1 -116
    3/23/2010
    Vicenza-Crotone 0:2 -182

    10 out of 15 Draws; when -150 or higher 3 out of 6 draws
    10 out of 15 Unders

    2008/2009
    5/30/2009
    Mantova-Salernitana 1:1 -435
    5/23/2009
    Frosinone-Cittadella 1:0 -200
    Treviso-Ascoli 1:1 -270
    5/16/2009
    Bari-Modena 4:1 -102
    Cittadella-Parma 2:2 -127
    5/9/2009
    Piacenza-Bari 2:2 -192

    4 out of 6 Draws; when -150 or higher 3 out of 4 draws
    3 out of 6 Unders

    3 Year Total
    26 out of 42 Draws; when -150 or higher 12 out of 16 draws
    23 out of 42 unders

    Tons of these matches in Serie B. Only thing that would seem to produce profit is when -150 or higher.
    Last edited by beeps220; 05-22-11 at 05:45 PM.

  4. #4

    good info, you could make a pretty good profit following this strategy.

  5. #5

    Good stuff. .. keep us updated if You narrow down anymore and if u start to play these

  6. #6

    Quote Originally Posted by mlb View Post
    Good stuff. .. keep us updated if You narrow down anymore and if u start to play these
    The season is done now and these type of matches really only occur towards the end of the season. But it's definitely something to file away for years to come towards the end of the season. The under in these type games in Serie A is what I like. Once you get these -/ML games on the draw there's usual odd betting patterns going on followed by the draw sometimes off the board.

  7. #7

    Good info. Tough to bet though, when something fishy is going on.

  8. #8

    what so is it me or the draw favorite probably the safest bet

  9. #9

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