1. #1
    SBRforum Staff
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    Twins on a Tear

    Twins on a Tear

    By: SBR Staff

    The Minnesota Twins, playing a lot like those Tom Kelly-managed teams that unexpectedly won a pair of World Series titles back in 1991 and 1987, are at it again this season. With just five weeks to go, can they pull it off and keep either or both of the Sox out of the postseason?

    With a couple of outstanding left-handers leading the pitching staff and one of the best home-field records in baseball, Minnesota has overtaken the Chicago White Sox in the American League’s wild-card race. How have they done it? Actually, in a variety of ways.

    The Twins started out very slowly this season, and the way the Detroit Tigers and the ChiSox were playing, looked to have virtually no chance to make the playoffs. But after taking two of three games from Chicago over the weekend, Minnesota now leads the AL wild-card race by a half-game over the Sox.

    The Twins fortunes began to change when inter-league play kicked in May. In five sets of games with the National League Central Division’s Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs (but not, if you’ll notice, any games vs. the St. Louis Cardinals), Minnesota won 16 of 18 games. Thank you very much. But, of course, interleague play is over for this season.

    Actually, while the Twins are 23 games over .500, Ron Gardenhire’s squad is only 30-28 within its own division this season.

    Minnesota also crawled into playoff contention by winning 34 of 42 games during a stretch encompassing the All-Star break. The Twins went 16-8 in July, and are 15-10 this month, all of which helped Minnesota creep to within four games of the Central Division-leading Tigers over the weekend.

    The Twins were posted at about 7/1 to win their Division at sportsbooks around the web before the season started, as much as 20/1 to win the American League pennant, and 40/1 to win the World Series. Minnesota also had their season win total posted at right around 83; Twins over bettors are only eight more victories away from cashing in those winning tickets.

    Like those Kelly-Puckett-Hrbek championship Twins teams, this version features a handful of very good players combined with key contributions from a fairly anonymous cast of supporting characters. 1B Justin Morneau is having a breakout season, hitting .317 with 32 homers and 110 RBI to deservedly earn MVP consideration. And C Joe Mauer only leads the majors with a .356 average, and has shown great plate presence with a 63/40 BB/K ratio. As a team, Minnesota leads the majors with a .287 average and ranks fifth with a .349 team OBP. And the Twins seem to be one of those teams that makes the most out of its at-bats, and own easily one of the best team BB/K ratios in the majors at 400/692.

    Minnesota’s pitching staff, which ranks sixth in MLB with a 4.14 staff ERA, is of course led by the talented twosome of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano. Together, they’ve racked up a 27-8 record, and the Twins are 34-9 when those two start a game (which leaves Minnesota 42-44 when anyone else starts). But Liriano is out with bad wing, and best-case scenarios call for a mid-September return. The Twins are not counting on it.

    Meanwhile, Minnesota has won Santana’s last 20 home starts in a row, which has helped give them the best home slate in the majors at 44-20. The Twins will play 17 of their last 33 games at the Metrodome.

    Two of those other starters include Brad Radke and Carlos Silva. But bettors, beware; Radke has allowed 194 hits in 157 innings pitched, while Silva has been clipped for exactly the same number of hits in just 135 innings of work.

    The Minnesota bullpen has been a rock, compiling an MLB-best 3.01 ERA. Closer Joe Nathan is 29 of 31 in save opportunities, and when he blew one Saturday at Chicago, the Twins won in extra-innings anyway.

    Add it all up, and Minnesota has a fine chance to return to playoff action. And speaking of action, the Twins have also been kind to their financial backers this season. Minnesota ranks second on the MLB moneyline chart at +2290; only Detroit has been better vs. the line this season at +2660. The Twins are also 69-59 vs. the run line.

    Minnesota’s remaining schedule is not altogether unkind. The Twins open this week with three games at home against last-place Kansas City, and host the Royals for four more games in late September. But Minnesota does have road series at the Yankees, Detroit, Oakland, Boston and Baltimore. And to cap the season off, the White Sox - those defending World Series champions - visit the Twin Cities for three games in a series that very well could decide the final AL playoff slot.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    Join Date: 08-10-05
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    when is liarino scheduled to return to the lineup, because he returns to it there gonna be a force during this streach drive.

  3. #3
    Bulldog
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    I read somewhere that it is uncertain when he would return and if he does he would most likely be a reliever. It said that it was a long shot for him to return as a starter this year...

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