BB Follow/Fade Stats and Update
Here are the stats thus far. I am using numbers from sports insights and have moved some "plays" around because of the change in the number of bets...
>70%, >9500 ... 4-16 (80%)
>80%, >9500 ... 0-6. (100%)
<70%, >9500 ... 16-7 (69.6%)
<70%, <9500 ... 16-13 (55.2%)
>70%, <9500 ... 9-3. (75%)**
**-this includes 3 wins and 2 losses with between 9000-9500 bets (including st marys from Sat) that were previously in the fade catagory up top.
I am not going to paint the games we lost under the system as wins but for tracking purposes it is important to be truthful on the results. Those numbers above represent the results. You can all do what you want but based on these numbers here is how I will play them ...
>80,>9500 fade for 3*
>72,>9500 fade for 2*
<68,>9500 follow for 1*
>72,<9500 follow for 1*
had i bet this way, in the 3+ weeks i have been tracking i would be +46.9 units (give or take a little extra juice because i always buy off the hook in basketball)
NBA and totals are a little different. NBA is 6-5-2. The weird thing is that games with over 15000 bets are 3-0-2 when followed, no matter what the percentage. This goes against the public perception ideal that started this whole thing as these are the games with the most action. With such a small sample size, this may be an anomaly--so at the least more tracking is required.
BB has only tweeted 4 totals thus far in the short time I have been tracking him. Those are 4-0. I mentioned to bhunter at the outset that I thought we could likely fade the overs and follow the unders he tweets. I based this on the fact that the public never bets the under--so it must be a syndicate play. I now think this may apply to all totals: because of the unlikihood of lots of action on totals, if BB posts that "squares" are on a total it is likely a syndicate play or tout play that carries some clout. I think this needs to be followed more closely but the rarity of these plays seems to support this idea.
Also, remember, during the week, bill tweets his square plays close to the tip of the 700 est games so you have to be quick with the analysis (I think VR tweets them earlier on Mon and when BB is out of the office).
I am going to continue to track both insights and pregame but I am wary of some of pregame's numbers as they have been a little whacky AND they will not release from whom those %s come (insights is open about their infrmation and from where it comes). Additionally, I think the 20 minute delay on insights may also act as a buffer (even though I use the final information for tracking purposes). Again, do what you want but for these reasons I am going to base my plays on insights numbers.
Happy hunting
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Originally Posted by jscol
