Jeff Benton 1/31
25 Dime: VIRGINIA
The Tar Heels finally ended their first three-game losing streak of the Roy Williams era on Tuesday, and they did so with a dominating 14-point win at North Carolina State (as a one-point road favorite). But that doesn’t mean all is perfect on Tobacco Road. This is still a very young, very raw team, and with the injuries they’ve been dealing with all season, the Heels have no business laying this kind of number, even at home.
Yes, Virginia has followed up an eight-game winning streak with consecutive ACC losses to Wake Forest (69-57 on the road) and Virginia Tech (76-71 in overtime). But the Cavaliers have been in virtually every game they’ve played this season, losing by more than five points just twice (the 12-point setback at Wake Forest and a 66-49 loss at South Florida back in the second game of the season).
The reason Virginia has been able to hang in almost all of its games is it plays tremendous defense. In fact, the 76 points Virginia Tech scored on Thursday (again, in overtime!) was the most the Cavaliers have allowed all year. In fact, Virginia (which gives up 61.7 ppg overall) has surrendered more than 69 points just three times. And when you compare what these teams have done in five ACC games, you’ll see North Carolina (71.8 ppg) is averaging 1 point per game more than Virginia (70.8) while giving up 73 ppg.
The Cavaliers have covered in three of the last four meetings with North Carolina – and keep in mind, those Tar Heels teams had Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, etc., etc. In fact, facing that experienced bunch in Chapel Hill last year, Virginia hardly embarrassed itself, losing by 15 points as a 24-point ‘dog. And that Cavaliers team last year finished the season 10-18 overall and 4-12 in conference!
Finally, the Tar Heels enter this game 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 ACC contests and 2-7 ATS in their last nine on Sunday. And while they easily covered at N.C. State earlier in the week, they’ve cashed in back-to-back games just once all year and not since early December (going 0-5 ATS in their last five when coming off a spread-cover).
Bottom line: Virginia’s defense will keep them in this game the entire way, and they have the ability to score on a Tar Heels squad that has given up 70 points or more in five of its last seven games. Take the points (and don’t be shocked if this is a tight, five-point game in the final minute).
AS ALWAYS POINTS WOULD BE GREAT.
Reply With Quote