The top teams in the Southeast Division face off for the second time this month Saturday night when the Hawks try to snap a five-game losing streak against the Magic; however, for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the home side in this situation:
Atlanta (30-15) is looking to build on the momentum from its first season sweep of Boston in 11 years. The Hawks built a 14-point lead over the Celtics on Friday, then watched it almost disappear before holding on for a 100-91 victory to cap the 4-0 series; I expect a letdown less than 24 hours after that victory.
While the Hawks insist the victory doesn’t mean much, they have won nine of their last 12 and are one-half game ahead of Orlando (30-16) for the best record in the division. What’s most impressive about the stretch is that three of those wins have come against the Celtics, and Atlanta also posted victories over Houston and Phoenix.
The achilles heel of this team though has been its play on the road 2-4 SU its last six; it also always struggles against Orlando; 0-5 ATS its last five vs. the Magic.
On the other side of the court: Orlando cruised to a 93-76 win Nov. 26 and routed Atlanta 113-81 on Jan. 9.
The Hawks shot a combined 39.3 % in those games, which extended their losing streak over the Magic to five games. Atlanta has topped 90 points only once during that skid.
To say that Orlando gives the Hawks "matchup issues" would be an understatement.
Keep in mind that Orlando is 4-1 SU its last five and is 11-2 SU its last 13 in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: Like Atlanta, Orlando is also coming off a victory over Boston after defeating the Celtics 96-94 at Amway Arena on Thursday. Rashard Lewis made the go-ahead layup with 1.3 seconds remaining, capping the Magic’s comeback from a 16-point deficit; I expect them to build momentum from that victory; look for ORLANDO to improve to 5-4 ATS vs. division opponents and for Atlanta to fall to a sub-par 7-8 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent!
Nick Parsons
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