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BB Square Fade/ Follow 1/30
BB just tweeted his early squares... Louisville and George Mason
the 1* plays are 14-5 since i started tracking, the 2* are 17-4 (actually 19-6, but less the 2-2 for the 8500-9000 bets we will no longer play)
519 Louisville 1* (>9000 bets, <70%) WIN
623 Kansas 1* (muchos wagers, <70%)
Thanks, just got it in time!
with ur 9500+ and under 70, when duke DOES go over 9500, is that a recommended play?
only if BB lists it as a game that a lot of "squares" are on.
at this point his squares are on louis, g mason and miss st
Sorry if you've explained this a dozen times already, but can you briefly clarify how this works, or redirect me to an older post that does, perhaps?
take BB squares from his tweets with a number of bets over 9000 on a tracking site... fade those with equal to or more than 70% of action, follow those with less than or equal to 69%
miss st is a close call, but i am staying away. this "science" is far too imperfect right now to take risky plays. there will be more this afternoon.
couldn't you do this with any game?
Thanks for clarifying. I've sorta tried doing this intuitively, but your numbers make it much easier.
the games bill doesnt post as "square plays" are about 50-50. i think basketball is too wishy-washy to fade the public on EVERY game ... books can do it because they get juice, we have to win 2 for every loss to win. i am sure in the long run there are quirks considering the moneyline or exotic percentages that will tell a bigger story and may find more plays.
one, for example, is one of the "fades" where there is 80% of the bets on the team BB says the squares are on ... those are 5-0 so far since i have been tracking.
Thanks for doing the leg-work and getting this posted! I missed this play, but still appreciate you doing this for us...thanks again!Originally Posted by Skanedogg
Damn missed that louiville pick bz working
BookieBill: This heres what they bet me in college. Iowa.notre dame. usc. new mexico. kansas. arkansas st. gonzaga. pacific. st marys.
BookieBill: From them ones i gave you all. These is the ones ol bill gonna route hardest against. Notre dame. usc. gonzaga. pacific. st marys.
POSSIBLE PLAYS ALERT
Iowa currently 7300 bets & 74%... tip off 4.30 EST... FADE if it reaches 9000 bets and stays above 72% or FOLLOW if it reaches 9000 and drops below 68%, otherwise do nothing
Notre Dame currently 5900 bets & 80%... tip off 6.00 EST... FADE if it reaches 9000 bets and stays above 72% or FOLLOW if it reaches 9000 and drops below 68%, otherwise do nothing
Kansas currently 11500 bets & 62%... tip off 7.00 EST... This already meets the criteria but you may wish to wait closer to tip off in case the % changes. FOLLOW if it remains below 68%. FADE if it goes above 72%
Gonzaga currently 6400 bets % 87%... tip off 9.30 EST... FADE if it reaches 9000 bets and stays above 72%
Doesnt look like any of the others will hit the 9000 bets target as they are all below 3000
So are these games candidates as well?
This heres what they bet me in college. Iowa.notre dame. usc. new mexico. kansas. arkansas st. gonzaga. pacific. st marys. 3 minutes ago from web
Can you say what site you get the # of bets made?
Yes, possible candidates. I will update the POSSIBLE PLAY ALERT post above with those which are the most likely candidates.
I've been using pregame (see below link) but they are also published on insight, however there is a slight difference of a few % between 2 sites, so we think its best to avoid plays where the % is between 68 & 72.
http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sport...-spy-insights/
thank you
Sorry broadway -- I am 10 beers deep.
The most likely play tonight will come from the Kansas-k state game. Others are all maybes
with K state being the play?
POSSIBLE PLAYS ALERT
Iowa currently 7300 bets & 74%... tip off 4.30 EST... FADE if it reaches 9000 bets and stays above 72% or FOLLOW if it reaches 9000 and drops below 68%, otherwise do nothing
Notre Dame currently 5900 bets & 80%... tip off 6.00 EST... FADE if it reaches 9000 bets and stays above 72% or FOLLOW if it reaches 9000 and drops below 68%, otherwise do nothing
Kansas currently 11500 bets & 62%... tip off 7.00 EST... This already meets the criteria but you may wish to wait closer to tip off in case the % changes. FOLLOW if it remains below 68%. FADE if it goes above 72%
Gonzaga currently 6400 bets % 87%... tip off 9.30 EST... FADE if it reaches 9000 bets and stays above 72%
Doesnt look like any of the others will hit the 9000 bets target as they are all below 3000
FOLLOW refers to follow the squares, ie bet Kansas
FADE means fade the the squares, ie bet Kansas St
bhunter....just so i make sure i understand what you do
The Kentucky game received 20,000 bets and only getting 42%. That means i should have bet kentucky
I know this isn't one of the games bill tweeted, but you should be able to do this on any game above 9000 bets, not just the ones he mentions. If he is real, he only works at 1 book.
The thing is that the number of bets we see includes moneyline and over/under. Neither site shows number of bets solely on sides. So we are currently using Bills tweets for confirmation.
However we are now going to start tracking the bets which meet the criteria which bill hasnt Tweeted about to determine whether these are worth betting on as well. I want at least a few weeks worth of data first though.
Yeah, that makes sense.
i know of two sites where you can see the the % of bets on the spread. Vegas insider . com and an SBR site. One has Iowa at 77% one @70% and one at 63% ....this part won't be an exact science.
Rolling the dice. Bbs numbers are prob a good indicator of across the board. And the stats say play these rules only with bbs plays
sounds good to me. thanks for the work
Notre Dame should be a play on thats what I got
Prob lose and cancel out miss st -- who was in the same situation at tip. Make sure it's over.
Those "close" games are the concern. At tip, miss st was not qualified and neither was te nd game.
skanedogg ND had 79 % BB says money on them but bet on game 9.700. Rutgers is the play
Kansas play looks good to go. Betting 1 unit on Kansas
(Fading 2 units on) Gonzaga is looking like our 2nd play of the night. Currently 8600 bets and 86%. Still 3 hours to go, plenty of time to reach the 9000 figure.
When I looked 5 min before it was iffy. I am just the messenger--it was
close. I hope you win.
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