[Cheese1976]

I'm looking to follow some otherwise profitable services that may be due to recover from a recent slump...

[edge323]

Brandon Lang

[bhunter]

I'm looking to follow some otherwise profitable services that may be due to recover from a recent slump...

Its difficult to try and predict when someone is going to pull out of a slump.

Much easier to fade a bad service in my opinion.

Am currently fading these 4.

Lang (of course!)
Malinsky
Cajun Sports
Power Play

Lang hits 47% (or lower if you ignore playoffs, bowl games etc) but has awful money management.
The other 3 are all hitting 40-42% over the last 6 months.

[hugh4310]

Docs

[Cheese1976]

Its difficult to try and predict when someone is going to pull out of a slump. Much easier to fade a bad service in my opinion. Am currently fading these 4. Lang (of course!) Malinsky Cajun Sports Power Play Lang hits 47% (or lower if you ignore playoffs, bowl games etc) but has awful money management. The other 3 are all hitting 40-42% over the last 6 months.

Thanks - I'm in a bit of a slump myself, wanted to go a different way for a bit

[Vesuvius]

Brandon Lang

Not really, he's up this year.

[bhunter]

Not really, he's up this year.

Only if you fade every play. As i've been saying all year you should only fade Langs regular season plays because the wider the choice of matchups the greater the chance for a square to fall into the "public perception" trap (which is what makes a square a square).

In a bowl game or playoff game you've usually got 2 big teams and money on both sides, so the public perception factor is almost eradicated. You have to understand how the lines are set and use that to your advantage.

Having followed my above theory with Langs plays i am 11-6, UP 112 Lang units in January. Compare those who are fading every play and are DOWN around 400 Lang units i think. In total i am tailing 8 services and fading 4, and during January the Lang fade is my most profitable of the 12. (10 Lang units = 1 my units)

The other 3 services i mention above, their win percentages are so bad that i choose to fade all their plays. Only started fading these at the weekend and am a combined 6-4, UP 2.6 units so far.

My total for the 4 fading services is 17-10, UP 13.8 units.

[MTN]

Only if you fade every play. As i've been saying all year you should only fade Langs regular season plays because the wider the choice of matchups the greater the chance for a square to fall into the "public perception" trap (which is what makes a square a square). In a bowl game or playoff game you've usually got 2 big teams and money on both sides, so the public perception factor is almost eradicated. You have to understand how the lines are set and use that to your advantage. Having followed my above theory with Langs plays i am 11-6, UP 112 Lang units in January. Compare those who are fading every play and are DOWN around 400 Lang units i think. In total i am tailing 8 services and fading 4, and during January the Lang fade is my most profitable of the 12. (10 Lang units = 1 my units) The other 3 services i mention above, their win percentages are so bad that i choose to fade all their plays. Only started fading these at the weekend and am a combined 6-4, UP 2.6 units so far. My total for the 4 fading services is 17-10, UP 13.8 units.

Do you straight wager when fading on all of these guys? Or do you fade the same amount of units they put up? (Seems like straight wagering with such low percentages might actually be more profitable without the unit risk).

[bhunter]

With Lang you have to use his money management strategy as he has a long-term win pct of 47%.

But with the others, you're right, they're so low that i fade the same amount on each bet.

[MTN]

Where do you find Cajun Sports and Power Play?

I looked through the past few days on here really quickly and I didn't see them... maybe another forum?

[Hoopman]

We should start a whos hot-whos not thread...could be very usefull

Very good idea. Perhaps we could also come up with a list like bhunter mentioned where we identify 6-7 services and fade or follow depending on how good or bad each performs? Thoughts?

[soxwin]

cheese,

I think this fits what you are looking for. Lillefty Won 56% of his games since 2007 according to their website. The last 2 months cant hit a 2** game to save his life. His 1 and 3* picks have been solid(he just has less of them) so he could be due for a bounceback if he could just hit those 2 star plays.

Good luck on finding what you are looking for

[vegasfred]

I'm looking to follow some otherwise profitable services that may be due to recover from a recent slump...

A popular thought amongst sharp bettors here in LV is:

Ride a Streak, don't try to predict when it will reverse, that way you can only be wrong once

It's meant for betting on teams on hot ATS runs and fading cold ATS teams, but I think that applies to following cappers as well

[bhunter]

Where do you find Cajun Sports and Power Play?

I looked through the past few days on here really quickly and I didn't see them... maybe another forum?

They're on scamdicappers.com - you have to pay a subscription but its relatively cheap and it gives access to loads of services.

How i picked the services i wanted to fade was by downloading their service database into excel and eliminating those services which were irregular or the sample data set was too small. With the remaining ones i then viewed their picks breakdown in more detail to see if they were consistently poor, and the above 2 along with Malinsky stood out. Was already fading Lang!

[soxwin]

bhunter,

Watch out for info you get from scamdicap. It is completely unreliable. Loads of games that aren't right on there. I found that out the hard way.

[bhunter]

bhunter,

Watch out for info you get from scamdicap. It is completely unreliable. Loads of games that aren't right on there. I found that out the hard way.

Thanks. All the ones i've checked out so far have been reliable but i'll keep an eye out for any discrepancies.

[Vesuvius]

Only if you fade every play. As i've been saying all year you should only fade Langs regular season plays because the wider the choice of matchups the greater the chance for a square to fall into the "public perception" trap (which is what makes a square a square).

In a bowl game or playoff game you've usually got 2 big teams and money on both sides, so the public perception factor is almost eradicated. You have to understand how the lines are set and use that to your advantage.

Having followed my above theory with Langs plays i am 11-6, UP 112 Lang units in January. Compare those who are fading every play and are DOWN around 400 Lang units i think. In total i am tailing 8 services and fading 4, and during January the Lang fade is my most profitable of the 12. (10 Lang units = 1 my units)

The other 3 services i mention above, their win percentages are so bad that i choose to fade all their plays. Only started fading these at the weekend and am a combined 6-4, UP 2.6 units so far.

My total for the 4 fading services is 17-10, UP 13.8 units.

Good points.

[pimike]

Where do you find Cajun Sports and Power Play?

I looked through the past few days on here really quickly and I didn't see them... maybe another forum?

CAJUN SPORTS did a write up on the front page today taking HAWLS over Dallas!. I loved this play today as well. Looks good so far.


These guys are one of the better ones in my mind.

[drewdown88]

doc's nba, 0-9 last nine picks

[winningdoc]

Yeah, I haven't been impressed with Scamdicappers, they only get some of the official plays up and I've seen the units wrong also

[DRZ]

I would just continue to fade johnny guild until basketball is over