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Ferringo NCAAB 1/26/10
*Remember...to be a winner you need to get the best number
1 1/2 Kentucky (-7)
2 1/2 Boston College (+3)
1 1/2 West Virginia (-16.5)
1 Baylor (-2)
1/2 Air Force (+19)
1/2 North Carolina (-1)
1 1/2 Kentucky (-2) /Boston College (+8)
1 Minnesota (-7) /West Virginia (-11.5)
1/2 Boston College (+8) /Maryland (-3)
back to the teasers ok
They look like solid plays to me but I don't remember him going better than 50/50 on themOriginally Posted by yupper
highlighted change in play
Here's a breakdown for tonight's plays (the horse is already out of the barn, eh? might as well kick in some analysis):
Boston College (+3)
I absolutely love this spot for Boston College today. First, we have nearly 90 percent of the wagers in this game coming in on the Tigers. That's never a good sign. Especially in a major conference like the ACC. And when this 90-percent team is also a shaky road favorite that further strengthens our position. Especially when our home dog is generally a great home underdog. Next, Clemson is coming into a huge letdown situation. They were the marquee game of the day on Saturday with ESPN Gameday in the house as they got routed by Duke. This is a pretty young Clemson team and I'm not sure how they are going to respond to that. Especially on the road, where they haven't played particularly well while going 0-3 ATS in their last three games and going 1-6 ATS in their seven games away from Littlejohn this year. Further, Clemson won at Chestnut Hill last year but they are just 1-3 in their last four trips there so I have no idea why they are favored. And we can mix in that Clemson will be without No. 2 scorer and one of their key ball handlers, Demontez Stith. Finally, this is a big revenge spot for the Eagles. They were routed by the Tigers just two weeks ago in a game in which they didn't play well at all. All-in-all, there just isn't much more that you can ask for in a spot. BC is starting to play better and is off a nice comeback win at Miami and a tight, tight loss at Virginia Tech. Those were two solid road efforts. I think that this is an equal battle between second-tier ACC teams and I think that all of the factors working in our favor set up well for a really nice outright B.C. win.
West Virginia (-16.5)
DePaul is a mess. They were able to catch Marquette napping last week and steal a win and then they covered a fat line against a not-very-good Notre Dame team. But that doesn't change the fact that they have mid-major talent (and not even good mid-major talent) and that they are playing in the Big East. West Virginia is in a bit of a letdown spot here after beating Ohio State. But do you think that Bob Huggins isn't going to be up their asses and not allowing them to let down? I do. They got off to a slow start in South Florida in a very similar situation in their last road game and still won by 19 points. And South Florida at least has some solid pieces and a great scorer. DePaul has nada. They lost by 17 to Providence and 17 to Georgetown, both at home, and that was with Mac Koshwal, their best player, who is hurt. I don't see why WVU won't come in here and lay the wood. They should absolutely suffocate DePaul defensively and I think that the 'under' is a great spot here as well. I can see this one being something like 64-41 or somewhere in that range. But I'll be a bit surprised if WVU doesn't win by 20 or more and I think that's where this line should have come out at (-21 or -22).
Kentucky (-7)
Well, I absolutely despise the fact that I'm on this game. Everyone knows that I am very anti-Kentucky this year. It's not that I don't think that they are good. It's just that I don't think that they are nearly as good as everyone else does and I don't think that they are the No. 1 team in the nation. But the bottom line here is that South Carolina has really done nothing to inspire confidence. They lost Holmes and Archie early and they just are not the same team. Devan Downey is awesome and I think that he is going to school John Wall tonight. And USC has some athletes. But the bottom line here is that Kentucky just has way more talent. And over the past two years USC has gotten a lot of undeserved love. This year their best wins are over South Florida and Richmond. And they were down big in that Richmond game. I'm not impressed. They haven't beaten anyone of this caliber and they have to prove it to me before I think anything of it. Kentucky is getting more experience and getting better. And if they can contain Downey (keep him under 30) then I think they win going away.
Baylor (-2)
Here we have an unranked team favored over a ranked team. And Baylor deserves is. This team has been very good this year and I think that they have a good matchup with their guards and a good matchup with bodies near the basket. Kansas State has a game with Kansas on deck so they could be looking over the Bears a bit. K-State may have peaked last week with that win over Texas and even though they are still a very, very good team I'm going to play our angle here. They are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and home court has been an amazing edge in the Big 12 this year.
Thank you for checking on that BC number. That was just a clerical err on my part and I tried to change it immediately. I noted that on the page.
By "number" I mean rating. Thank you for updating that rating to be accurate.
Nice to see some of the logic behind the picks--appreciate your posts. Good luck tonight.
Thanks for the breakdown Robert. Best of luck to all.
Does everyone agree with the BC pick being a good one? If so I'm on it. Thx for posting btw!
I like the BC pick, and I reluctantly agree with Kentucky.
I'm on K State though.
GL everyone.
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
5/16/2012
That BC game, from a capping perspective, should have been twice what I rated it and should have been AT LEAST a Game of the Week play at 4 or 5 Units. And if I was running hot that could have been a GOTM pick.
I took it down because of one key thing: matchups. Clemson is a bad matchup for BC because the Eagles don't have a point guard and Clemson's press can wreak havoc. I mean, BC doesn't really have any good ball handlers and that's trouble against the press. (Although BC did have just 14 turnovers down in Littlejohn. That's not great, but it's not catastrophic.)
But other that it's got absolutely every basic angle that you can have in a college game: revenge, let down, home dog in conference, place where the opponent doesn't play well, semi-overrated ranked opponent on the road, etc. And BC does matchup well underneath with Clemson. All depends on how BC shoots. They are weak from the outside and went just 2-for-13 from deep in the first meeting. If they make that like 5-for-15 we're in business.
Oh, and 85 percent of the bets are on Clemson. That gives us a little RLM and I think is a good sign for our side.
So Robert, you agree that you should bet against the public instead of with them? I was wondering if this strategy is proven to be better..
so BC is not a play now? Am I correct with that statement? Thanks!
Robert,
Do you keep track of your record for your different unit plays? For example, record for 1-unit plays vs. record for 5-unit plays. Also by sport?
Or is there a website that tracks them? Thanks.
Rf, what's your thoughts on the Carolina game. I see craig Davis came out with a 50 dimer I really like him as well
BC is gonna kill him.
Clemson is capable of a twenty point blowout.
If that happens, that kills Bob's plays
-5 units if BC doesn't stay within 8
Don't like the unit management
I got Clemson -3, with the other 90% of the public. I'm not too shameful of betting Clemson, either.
I got KY, have to agree with it
Fading Depaul is dangerous.
Ever since ESPN has called out Depaul and said they would never win any Big East games, they've covered, every time, including an outright win on Marquette. Too many points is my conclusion. No bet for me.
Baylor -2 in what is a tossup game.
Baylor is looking good, agreed.
But after K-State loss on Saturday, I feel the K-State coach will scare the living she-at out of his players into winning. No bet for me.
Anyways, gl Mr. Ferringo, and thanks for your contributions to the forum.
CHARITY DONOR
11/24/2011
$25 donation
That MarQ v Depaul game was fishy as hell. Marquette also had Syracuse on deck, so I think it was a big let down. I remember being on MarQ that game and I believe they scored something like 18 points in 16 minutes in the 2H. It was ridiculous.
Agreed
I think ESPN pissed em off when they said they wouldn't win another game.
So I'm not sure, what the hell is going on with Depaul.
I'm just gonna be really careful with any more Depaul bets.
CHARITY DONOR
11/24/2011
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I like to wait for 2H plays with WVU. They seem to start slow and then Huggins must chew their asses in the locker room, because those guys usually come out and turn it on in the 2H. May do the same thing tonight but most likely lay off all together. I hate getting back doored on big spreads and I don't think WVU really gives a damn about playing this Depaul team.
Agreed.
If West Virginia is up by 15 with under 2 minutes, I think they quit, put in the redshirts.
Depaul plays balls to the wall to the final minute, imho.
CHARITY DONOR
11/24/2011
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Alright RF - lets have a big night tonight - I laid off you for a while - but you say you have the groove back - lets see it happen!!!!
Darrell, I also agree with your take on Boston College. With those plays / Units and the teasers, RF's whole night revolves around BC staying within 8 points of Clemson. If they don't do that, he can hit the rest of those plays and still not come out ahead. Not to mention, Clemson has the capability of blowing BC out by 15+. So that whole card comes down to Boston College +8. Not saying it won't hit, but certainly don't agree with that type of unit management. And I'm sure RF and Co. will think this is a bash on him, but I'm talking straight up Unit strategy in 100% seriousness.
No Ball Picker THAT is serious "play discussion" not a personal bash and THAT is the only reason why I still hang around in this forum.
Bad money management indeed. I've stopped playing all/any teasers a month ago because of that; i.e. not because "will it hit? or won't it hit?" but because his plays are so intertwined with his teasers that sometimes you either have a very good day or a very bad day.
Thank you sir.
Glad you picked up on this
That's my problem with this kind of betting.
If I was Bob, betting on this, I would eliminate the +3, because if the +8 teasers don't hit, you're +3 is an automatic loser.
Also, he really likes his BC pick. So, I would drop the two teaser plays and add a unit on the +3 wager.
Spreading 1 team on 3 wagers is not too good on money management.
Honestly, I've done that before. But I only do that if I'm up a ton, and I want to play around and am ready to lose money. But this is a paid handicapper. That's not the kind of wagering I would advise anybody to do.
Personally, I got Sparty, Clemson, Ky on a teaser.
I don't think that will hit, but I'm playing with house money, and it will amuse me.
I'll, most likely, lose it.
But, I won't tell you to bet it, or anybody else. Because I got those 3, by themselves.
gl on your wagers, tonight.
CHARITY DONOR
11/24/2011
$25 donation
I was going to say the same thing. Drop the BC +3 play, especially as your biggest play of the night (2.5 Units). It just makes no sense when you have 2 Units on BC +8 in teasers. This is called 'putting all of your eggs into one basket'. And like you said, if BC +3 hits then the BC +8 will hit, so why not drop the BC +3 for 2.5 Units? Then you have 6 total Units riding on the rest of your plays.Hey, maybe BC wins SU and it works out, but this is pure "gambling" in its true sense and really has nothing to do with trying to get an edge. Can I just add in from another site: "This is a trap game, but i'll put my foot in. Clemson outplayed them at home and should be able to beat them again. Kenpom has Clemson #18. BC is 0-4 against teams ranked 1-40. They are 5-7 against teams ranked in the Top 100 and also lost to Maine #200 and St J. #174"
[quote=Robert Ferringo;3038586]Here's a breakdown for tonight's plays (the horse is already out of the barn, eh? might as well kick in some analysis):
quote]
By the far the coolest capper out there...Who else would do this?
Awesome! thanks
Played BC 1H also.. Looking good!!
BC definitely looking good. Clemson is pooping the bed for sure. I've never seen so many missed layups for Clemson and easy layups for BC. RF looking to have a big night.
NicksPicks – The idea of “betting against the public” is somewhat overrated. It really just depends on the sport and the situation. Very, very rarely will I ever just flat-out bet a game because 90 percent of people are on a certain team. But in the NFL and in college basketball there are some situations with a “disrespected favorite” (where over 2/3 of the plays are on an underdog) that I have scored with. And in a situations like today’s game where everything else was in line and then the icing on the cake was the fact that the public was pounding Clemson. It's really more of a "feel" thing. It's tough to explain to someone when it's applicable and when it isn't. But tonight was a perfect example of when you should go against the public.
Jeffbuff73 – No, I don’t track picks like that. Sorry. (And just an FYI, I am an SU grad and diehard fan!)
Yupper – That UNC is definitely, definitely not a spot for a big play. I thought it was worth a dabble for a variety of small reasons. It was a 0.5-Unit play and I was even hesitant to go with it on the card at all. UNC blows. I said back at the start of the year that they were one of the most overrated teams in the country and that they were a fringe NCAA Tournament team.
As for the teasers, I agree that lately they haven’t worked. But then again a lot of my plays haven’t worked so it is what it is. I didn’t use any last night and was convinced that I was done with them. Well, had I gone with the plays that I originally wanted 9with teasers) I would have had a winning night. Also, as the season goes on the lines are going to be a lot tighter. Games are going to get closer and five points is going to make a difference. I don’t know what I’ll end up doing with them.
Picker, I don't think I can have a big night. I didn't grade my plays like that. And say what you will about my capping over the last month but that's been my biggest problem - by far, bar none: ****ed up grading.
I said hours ago that this BC should have been a big play. I mean, like I said, pick your cliche handicapping angle (revenge, letdown, fade the public, home dog, etc., etc.) and we had all of them in this game. But I didn't. I pussied out and hesitated. I have no idea why. But that's been a noose on my neck.
Still a long way to go with this one.
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