Line opened at a key number of 41 which was very smart from the lines maker standpoint. They KNOW that public will be betting the over in both of these games so they open it up right on the key. Sure enough the sharp money came in as expected on the under and it went all the way down to 39. The whole time however showed the larger percentage of bets were being played on the OVER. Money moves lines not bet percentages. So we had a reverse line move early on the O/U total. Well now we see the number almost back to where it started from and I predict that it will be there come game time. When the game returns to 41 you must follow the sharp money here and play the UNDER. I know it's hard to root for nothing to happen but with the Jets, that's pretty much what you get. The only way this game gets out of hand is to have numerous defensive TDs or special teams returns. The Colts will try to get the lead and then milk the clock. The Jets will do what they always do, run the ball and hope you make a mistake. This makes for a short low scoring game.
10 Dime - Vikings-Saints (UNDER)
Once again we saw the first move immediately to the under. Most sharp bettors will bet any playoff line in the 50's blindly to the UNDER. My numbers show 50 as the top line number in this game. & TD's is a lot in a conference final when you think about it. Both are very good offensive teams but even they tend to get conservative with a lead and one game to get into the Super Bowl. What usually looks like a shootout is always the opposite. Games like this go over when there are special teams or defensive TD's. We saw a reverse line move in this game big time concerning the O/U. 70% of bets were going to the OVER yet the line moved from the opener of 54 down to 52. That is something that we have played with success all year and we won't stop doing it now. The total is now moving right back to the starting number and I predict with the offensive fire power that these teams have that the public will continue to bet the OVER. It may even go past the original opener which will set up a nice middle possibility for those that played the under early. Wait on this game to get the best possible total to play the UNDER.
5 Dime - Colts
The Conference Championships have always seen one blow out every year. If there was a game to pick this week that would result in a blow out this would be the game. Colts too much offense and a underrated defense. Jets a very good defense and an awful offense that frequently took advantage of short fields to score their TD's. Manning doesn't turn it over and he's not facing tom Brady. We get the dream matchup in the Super Bowl and we don't have to hear any Rex Ryan or Brett Favre stories for the next two weeks. Maybe now I can turn my TV back on. The initial move off the opener ws to the Colts and there has been no buy back. That tells me all I need to know.
5 Dime - Saints
Are you as sick of the Favre hype as I am? If you aren't then you aren't gonna like what we have to say. I can never remember a time when I purposely turned off the TV or turned it to another channel, as I did this week, to avoid listening to all the BS I was going to hear about the old man. That's what he is too, an old man! He has taken this team as far as it can go. No one thought he could get it done against the Cowboys last week, but he and his team did. They did it with the aid of a raucous home crowd and some brain cramps by the Cowboy defense and the QB Romo. Drew Brees is NOT Tony Romo and the Vikings and Favre are NOT at home this week, and there in lies the difference. The Vikings lost 4 games this year and all of them were on the road. There is not a harder top place to play on the road than Nawlins, and there's not a harder QB to play against than Drew Brees.
The Viking secondary is there Achilles heel and Brees will exploit the hell out of it today for enough to win this game easily. They still have to run the ball but Brees has so many weapons, unlike the Cowboys, that he can choose from that will make life difficult for the Vikings D. The Saints will NOT make the same mistake as the Cowboys did last week and try to run the ball inside the tackles like the Boys so unbelievably stupid try to do last week after having success with Jones rushing on the edges. This is where Reggie Bush comes in. He ran with a purpose last week and it was exciting to watch. If he does the same today, the Saints will have a field day. The Cowboys and Romo's decision making were not the best last week but this is now the most accurate QB in the league that the Vikes are going against, who is a good decision maker. I think the Saints and Brees lost focus at the end of the season and that's why they faltered just enough. We saw last week that the focus was back against the Cardinals and they will prove today that their record was not a fluke. The Vikes record was a fluke. They played the easiest schedule of anyone in the NFL. Today the cream will rise to the top. The Saints come marchin in!!!
Steve Duemig 1/24/2010
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