Wunderdog NCAAB 20/1
Game: Davidson + Houston at Parlay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Parlay -140 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.6)
Put these two teams together in a moneyline parlay. Davidson, a team holding opponents at home to 58 points per game, hosts W. Carolina, a team that allows over 71 points per game on the road. Davidson is lethal from beyond the arc, making nine three pointers per game overall and 11 per game (on 40.5% shooting at home). That spells trouble for W. Carolina as they are 1-9 the past three seasons vs. teams that hit 37%+ from three-point land. W. Carolina is 4-12 the past three seasons in games with a total in the 140s including 1-7 on the road. Davidson is 18-3 in their last 21 games following a close loss by six points or less. Houston plays Central Florida. UCF is just 2-6 on the road this season, getting out scored by double-digits. Over the past two seasons, UCF is just 3-13 vs. winning teams and 1-9 vs. up-tempo teams like Houston that take 62+ shots per game. They are also 1-11 over the past three seasons vs. teams that score 77+ points per game. Take Davidson and Houston in a moneyline parlay.
Game: E. Michigan at C. Michigan (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on E. Michigan +6.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Central Michigan Chippewa's had some brilliant years in the MAC, but this team lacks the star players from those teams that carried them into the NCAA Tournament. This team lacks a pure scorer, doesn't have a physical presence on the boards and it is why they are 7-8 on the season. The Eagles have been down for many years including last season with just four wins heading into their final four games and won all four. They have built off of that to already top the win total from a year ago with nine this season. They are the team with the star player in Brandon Bowdry, who is averaging a solid double-digit every night. The roles have reversed for these teams and Eastern Michigan gets the line value here as they are off the radar. They are a team that can win in this spot and I'll go with Eastern Michigan in this one.
Game: St. John's at Uconn (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St. John's +9 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The St. John's Red Storm have been down for years, but finally have the talent and experience to give almost anyone a game. They lost to Georgetown by just seven, Duke at Cameron by just nine and played Louisville to within seven on the road. The Huskies are without Coach Calhoun, who is taking a medical leave of absence and will miss his ability to instill his will in them. Uconn is one of the most individually athletic teams in the country, but out of the halfcourt set they are really struggling and that is how the Johnnies play. Dyson and Walker are two of the quickest guards in the country, but without an inside presence they are forcing issues and combine to have 114 turnovers already, leading to a lot of empty possessions. Uconn has struggled all year against lesser teams and their confidence, including the coach's, is reeling off of three straight losses. I like St. John's in this one.
Game: William & Mary at Virginia Commonwealth (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on William & Mary +8.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Yes, Virginia Commonwealth has been very good at home, but William & Mary has been equally good on the road going 7-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. There's no reason they can't hang in this one and even threaten for the win. W&M is a perfect 8-0 ATS as an underdog this season and Va Commonwealth is just 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite between 6.5 to 12 points. They are also 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after back-to-back ATS covers. I like the road team here plus the points.
Game: L S U + West Virginia at Parlay (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Parlay -130 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.9)
I like these two teams to notch wins and thus we'll put them in a reasonably priced moneyline parlay. The Tigers host Auburn who is just 2-5 straight-up on the road this season. They are also 2-6 vs. winning teams. LSU is holding foes to 59.5 points per game here at home, on way to a 9-2 mark. I like LSU to get it done at home. I also like West Virginia over Marshall. The Mountaineers are 7-1 at home this season, allowing opponents just 55.5 points per game. Marshall is just 2-9 the last two seasons on the road when coming off a home win. They are also 10-23 in their last 33 after scoring 85+ last game. Put LSU and W. Virginia together in a moneyline parlay at -130.
Game: Bradley at S.illinois (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Bradley +270 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 5.4)
S. Illinois has lost four of their last five games. Their only win was in an unlined game against Evansville. They lost outright as a favorite to both N. Iowa and Drake. I like their chances of losing again here. S. Illinois is just 8-9 straight up the past two seasons at home as a favorite and this season they are 2-4 in conference play. Under Jim Les, this Bradley team is 38-31 after a home win. And, this dog bites hardest after playing back-to-back underdog games as Bradley is 10-2 the last two seasons after two straight games as a dog. Bradley is coming off a confidence-boosting upset win and I like their chances for another here.
Game: Bradley at S. Illinois (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Bradley +7.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Saluki's dominated the MVP for several years, but the program has slipped and the level of play here isn't what it once was. How much have things changed? This is a team that went through a seven year period losing just two conference games totals at home! Last year the Saluki's were had on their homecourt five times in conference play and already this year they are 1-2. What was once a dominating homecourt has been erased by mediocre talent. While that illusion still exists the line value is now on the otherside. Bradley came within a bucket of upsetting Northern Iowa on the road and certainly are on equal footing with this Southern Illinois team, making the points the way to go here. When coming off an upset win, Bradley is 8-1 ATS the past three seasons. I'll take Bradley and the points in this contest.
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Originally Posted by PacmanJr_00
