This is a bad spot for the Heat, who return home following a six-game road swing, their longest of the season. NBA teams playing their first home game following a road trip of five or more games is always a trouble spot. Portland was in this spot on 11.18 on did not cover vs. Detroit, winning by just six as 10.5-point chalk. On January 5th, Philadelphia lost outright to Washington as five-point favorites. Golden State has split in this spot on two occasions, once getting clobbered by San Antonio. So has Memphis, who lost outright to Portland early in the year. Our point is that's it's not always a play on situation, but in most cases, it's worth a look. Making this an attractive play is the fact that Danny Granger is now back for the Pacers, which makes them a far more dangerous team. After going just 5-11 SU with Granger out of the lineup, the team is 3-3 since his return and even better he's averaged 25 PPG the last two times he's faced Miami. Granger missed the earlier meeting when the Heat when Indiana was blown out 114-80. Note that the Pacers are 72-37 ATS when playing with revenge for a loss where the team scored 85 points or less. Indiana's high-scoring ways can give a team playing with fatigue issues plenty of trouble. They had scored 100+ in five straight games, twice topping the 120 mark, prior to a loss to New Orleans on Saturday. Indiana is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Lenny Del Genio 1/19
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